UFC 216: Ferguson vs. Lee Quick Picks
Welcome to the UFC 216 Picks! We had some very close calls this morning with the early weigh-ins. The Brooks/Lentz fight has been canceled, make sure to remove them from your lineups!
The Main Event, Tony Ferguson vs. Kevin Lee was close to being scrapped as well, Lee missed weight by one pound at the buzzer and was given an extra hour to lose it. He did, so thankfully that fight is still intact.
There is still more than $250K up for grabs this weekend so let’s get to it!
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Onto the fights!
Cash Game Plays
1. Tony Ferguson, 8.9k
Regardless of your opinion of how likely Kevin Lee is to upset Tony Ferguson, I believe Ferguson is one of the top cash plays on the slate. Unlike Lee, Ferguson is durable and very likely to last several rounds if he loses. And if he wins, it will likely be a mid-round finish or a high-paced five rounds of action.
Ferguson strikes at an extremely high pace of 5.23 significant strikes per minute, and that will add up quickly. He also has the wrestling/grappling credentials to take advantage of a sloppy takedown attempt from Lee if needed.
But simply, Ferguson is a very safe play in a five-round fight, and he carries a high floor with him, so for 8.9k, I’‘m willing to target him in cash games.
2. Demetrious Johnson, 9.7k
He’s expensive, I know, but if you have the money to fit DJ in, he’s clearly the top cash game on the slate. The reason I’m not ranking him No.1 is because I don’t think you have to FORCE him in, you still want your lineup to have overall stability. If you don’t have the extra cap to fit Johnson in, I think Bibulatov at 9.3k is a great pivot in cash games.
But Johnson comes in as a -1250 favorite, fighting in a five-round fight, and he’s very likely to score more than 100 points in a win. His massive odds value is just one reason to play him, he also fights at a high pace, he can grapple and strike, and he’s been consistently durable.
So although there isn’t any such thing as a lock in MMA, DJ is as close as we can get. I will likely take my 100 points from him and move on.
Tournament Plays
1. Walt Harris, 9.2k
I don’t think I’m bringing too many surprises with this pick but Walt Harris is one of the top tournament plays on the slate for 9.2k. That doesn’t mean, however, he’s a lock to win, and we have to remember the high-variance nature of these HW fights.
But Harris is a -320 favorite with an ITD prop of -180, which means he’s the most likely fighter to win inside the distance on the entire card. Harris should have a significant athletic advantage here and power advantages as well, and there’s a very strong chance he gets the job done early.
Instead of paying all the way up for DJ in tournaments, I think Harris is a decent candidate to start your tournament lineups.
2. Lando Vannata, 8.8k
I think this is a strong buy-low spot for Lando Vannata. He’s coming off a loss to David Teymur, while his opponent Bobby Green nearly won a decision against Rashid Magomedov. But only one fight prior, Vannata was coming off a KO victory over John Makdessi, while Green was coming off a KO loss to Dustin Poirier.
If this fight had taken place after the Makdessi/Poirier fights, Vannata would be massively owned. But I think people are a bit scared off and it makes sense, Vannata has some holes in his game. He’s also going to go for the kill in the early portion of the fight like he always does, and that sets up for a potential early finish.
Vannata is only -190 to win but he’s +190 to win inside the distance, which is actually one of the better props on the card. In tournaments, I’m absolutely willing to take some chances with Vannata in hopes he can earn another quick finish.
Fade of the Week
1. Beneil Dariush, 9k
The goal of this segment is more or less to put myself out there and give you a legitimate threat to go underweight to the field on. And like most of the fighters in the 9k range, Dariush is a threat, I just don’t value him on this slate as much as I value the other fighters in his range.
Unlike most of the 9k fighters, I don’t think Dariush has a great chance to finish, and that’s important. He comes in with an ITD line of +207 and will be forced to deal with a higher-paced Evan Dunham. I think he can win, but I don’t see it likely for Dariush to score 90 or more points, and so he’s a strong candidate for a fade.