UFC 219: Cyborg vs. Holm Quick Picks
Welcome to the UFC 219 Picks! It’s the final card of 2017, and I want to thank everyone who has continually read these articles or supported MMA Premium throughout the year. I hope these breakdowns were able to help you win some money!
As the final event of 2017, there is big money out there on DraftKings, well over $200K up for grabs. There are only 10 fights this week, which means high ownerships and less options. Definitely take ownership into consideration if you are entering large-field tournaments, and I think leaving salary on the table is a strong strategy as well.
Hope you all have a happy new year and see you again in 2018!
NEW TO MMA PREMIUM: I’ve decided to add my personal bets, betting breakdown videos and strategies to MMA Premium, which you can find in the link below.
If you want FULL BREAKDOWNS of every single fight on the card, projections, rankings and more, you can find that in the Premium Section here. We’ve also launched the MMA LINEUP BUILDER which you can access with my projections if you purchase the premium content.
Onto the fights!
Cash Game Plays
1. Cris Cyborg, 9.3k
Sticking to my general theme, I think paying up for the main event favorite in Cris Cyborg is a smart move in cash games at 9.3k. I suspect there will be a handful of people who don’t think she can meet salary and will pay up for Khalil Rountree instead, but I don’t think that is a strong longterm move.
For Rountree to meet value, he needs to get a knockout in round one. It’s possible, he very well might earn the stoppage, but if he finishes in rounds two or three, or wins a decision he is not meeting value.
Cyborg gets five rounds to play with, and even if she wins an ugly decision she will score well enough. Her floor is much higher than nearly anyone else on the card, and she has a high enough offensive output to make her worth the price. Plus, her opponent Holly Holm has a very small chance to win inside the distance at +712, meaning even if she loses, Cyborg will still accrue points throughout 25 minutes of action.
In tournaments, I am considering taking an underweight approach to everyone in the top tier of the pricing range this week, but in cash games, I still think Cyborg is worth paying up for.
2. Tim Elliot, 9k
I wrote Tim Elliot up as my favorite play during UFC Winnipeg, but his fight with Pietro Menga was canceled at the last minute. So the UFC re-booked him against another newcomer, Mark De La Rosa at 135 pounds.
Even though it’s a different matchup, I have a lot of similar feelings. Elliot is the type of fighter you want exposure to. If he wins the fight, he’s very likely to land takedowns and passes, and that gives him an extremely high floor and ceiling. It has nothing to do with my level of confidence in his matchup, I do think he should be successful here in the grappling realm against Rosa, but I’m willing to take the chance either way.
There aren’t a ton of stand out locks on the card this week, and with only 10 fights, you are going to need to take some stands. I think Elliot has the floor and ceiling we are looking for with his wrestling base, and it puts him in play in all formats this weekend.
Tournament Plays
1. Marvin Vettori, 8.6k
There isn’t really a stand-out option for me here, which is scary, but someone I’m willing to take some shots on in tournaments is Marvin Vettori at 8.6k. He’s in a bout against Omari Akhmedov which I think will potentially be overlooked on this high profile card.
And with only 10 fights, ownership is extremely important. Vettori also has one of the better lines to finish on the entire card at +157, which is enough to put him in play for the price tag. Vettori may look to wrestle, but I think he’ll have an easier time keeping the fight standing and looking to push a pace against the wrestler Akmedov, who tends to tire as the fight progresses.
Akmedov can wrestle offensively, but he doesn’t have much more than a wild brawling boxing game on the feet, and it’s led him to getting finished late in fights on multiple occasions. If the younger fighter Vettori can push the pace early, I think he’s capable of finishing late, or at least putting up a decent score for his mid-range price tag.
2. Neil Magny, 7.7k
Neil Magny hasn’t shown a whole lot in his past few performances, and he’s taking on a much bigger name here against Carlos Condit. It’s very possible Condit keeps the fight standing and uses his volume and superior technique to win the fight.
But I have major concerns about what level of Condit we will see. He retired after his last loss against Demian Maia and he’s taken major damage in recent years. He’s also been working outside of fighting on his own companies and personal life, and I just don’t know if he’s going to come into the Octagon his true self.
It’s completely a narrative, but the other question I have is with his takedown defense. He defends at a rate below 40 percent which is bad, and Magny is a solid offensive wrestler for all his flaws. Magny also has the best chance of any underdog to win at +140, according to the Vegas odds. I can’t say I’m confident in Magny pulling off the upset but for this potential to win via grappling, and the question marks surrounding Condit’s return, I am absolutely willing to take some chances on him on DraftKings for 7.7k.
Fade of the Week
1. Cynthia Calvillo, 9.2k
I’m a big fan of Cynthia Calvillo but I think she’s too expensive for her potential outcomes this week against Carla Esparza. Calvillo is a very strong scrambler and a good submission grappler, but she’s not a better wrestler than Esparza in my opinion.
Either she will get taken down by Esparza, or she’ll keep the fight standing and use her volume to win rounds. I don’t see her landing takedowns, and her chances to finish aren’t very high at +181, which really limits her potential to be on the winning lineup at 9.2k.
Unless she jumps on a choke in the first round, and even that might not do it, I don’t see her scoring 100 or more points. It’s very possible she wins three rounds with scrambles and volume but that isn’t good enough to warrant any investment from me on DK.