UFC 220: Miocic vs. Ngannou Quick Picks
It’s only January but this is setting up to be one of the best cards of the year! Two title fights! The hardest puncher in history, or so it seems, Francis Ngannou gets his crack at the title.
More importantly, there are hundreds of thousands of dollars to be won on DraftKings, and that’s what we are here for.
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Cash Game Plays
1. Daniel Cormier, 9.2k
Out of the four title contenders, my favorite play in cash games is Daniel Cormier, who is the biggest favorite on the card at -325 and priced the highest at 9.2k. You can argue his floor is zero, you wouldn’t be wrong, his only real chance to lose is via a quick knockout loss, but his floor is so much higher than most fighters if he can earn a win.
Cormier has a wrestling-based style and five rounds to work with, which is exactly what I am looking for on DraftKings. There are so many close fights this weekend, taking a favorite north of 3:1 odds has built in safety, and his style of fighting just adds to that. If you feel like hedging, you can throw his opponent Volkan Oezdemir into a tournament lineup for a low ownership, but Cormier should have many advantages in this fight and I expect him to get the job done.
Oezdemir hasn’t had success wrestling outside the UFC, and he hasn’t been tested in his short three-fight UFC career, so as long as Cormier can survive the first few minutes, he should rack up plenty of points. He also carries an ITD line of -156, indicating his upside is high as well.
He’s expensive, but he’s the best cash game play on the card in my opinion.
2. Dustin Ortiz, 7.7k
If you need a cheap value play, my pick is Dustin Ortiz for 7.7k.
Ortiz fights are generally determined by whether or not he has the wrestling advantage, and in this case, I think he should have that. He’s fighting Alexandre Pantoja, a high-output combination striker with decent jiu-jitsu, but he’s not the best wrestler.
Ortiz is known for his cardio and scrambling especially, and I think he can continually look for the takedowns as he wears out Pantoja against the cage. Even if he’s unsuccessful, I still think he will land a few takedowns and enough significant strikes over the course of three rounds to make him worth playing. Remember, he’s only 7.7k, he doesn’t need 120 points in cash games.
The odds on Ortiz to win have also dropped to +115, indicating he has a very strong chance to win, nearly 50 percent according to Vegas. For his current price he is undervalued, and that combined with his high-floor fighting style make him worth a look in cash games.
Tournament Plays
1. Abdul Razak Alhassan, 9k
He only fought last month, but Abdul Razak Alhassan finds himself in yet another bout with Sabah Homasi. The first one ended via first round TKO, but the ref Herb Dean waved it off prematurely, so the two are fighting again in hopes of settling the score.
The first fight was set at a crazy pace, there were more than 60 significant strikes exchanged in the first round, and both fighters had their opportunity to finish. My assumption is that the rematch will play out similarly, in the sense that Alhassan will pressure and force a high-paced battle, and the fight as a whole will likely score well.
I think it’s very plausible Homasi wins the rematch, and he’s worth a look at 7.2k, but ultimately I am leaning with Alhassan, and I think he has exceptional upside for 9k. Unlike Francis Ngannou, Alhassan is very likely to land a high number of strikes en route to a finish, and his odds of winning ITD are -135, one of the best lines on the card.
The fight as a whole is -350 to end in a finish and I think Alhassan has a good chance to get out of there with a victory, so I’m more than willing to target him in tournaments this weekend.
2. Stipe Miocic, 7.3k
He may be popular, but Stipe Miocic is a clear value at 7.3k and I plan to have exposure to him in tournaments. His downside is obvious, it’s zero, he could get knocked out by Francis Ngannou in 30 seconds. But if he survives the initial onslaught, he’ll have a great chance to win and pay off that cheap price tag.
Miocic is capable of winning via knockout, submission or decision, and he’s very likely to score 90 points or more in a win, with five rounds to play with. I like to be confident in dogs that I am targeting in the sense that if they do win, they will pay off the price. Miocic has strong odds at +170 and +209 to win ITD, and he’s a high-pedigree fighter with championship level experience.
If you are looking to roster studs like Cormier or Alhassan, you will need some value to rely on. Miocic is one of the best underdog plays on the card and he’s an excellent tournament option for the price.
Fade of the Week
1. Islam Makhachev, 9.1k
I don’t feel extremely comfortable about this pick, he’s the exact type of fighter we want on DraftKings. He’s the poor man’s Khabib, he’s a combat sambo veteran with good wrestling and a high level submission grappling game.
At his best, he will land five takedowns and pass 12 times, and score 100 points in a decision win. But he’s facing Gleison Tibau, one of the strongest fighters in the division with an excellent grappling game himself. Tibau has been taken down only six times in 26 UFC fights, and has only allowed six passes. Makhachev may have success here as Tibau is coming off a long layoff, but I struggle to see how much success he can have.
Maybe Makhachev gets three takedowns and three passes, which would likely only yield 75 points in a decision. That’s not enough, and I doubt he can have much more succes than that. He’s also priced at the top of the board this week behind Cormier, meaning he absolutely needs to outscore everyone in that range.
I’m fearful of fading a fighter with his pedigree, but I trust the grappling of Tibau enough to be significantly underweight to the field on Makhachev.