UFC 221: Romero vs. Rockhold Quick Picks

Welcome back to the UFC Quick Picks! UFC 221 is on tap this week which means big prizes on DraftKings! There’s a $150k GPP on the slate this week with a whopping $25k to first place.

I also want to congratulate the group of Premium Subs who qualified for the Finale of the Fight to the Finish Tournament, only 25 spots remain and the winner takes home 20k. Premium subs occupy 10 of those 25 spots, which is outstanding to see!

NEW TO MMA PREMIUM: I’ve decided to add my personal bets, betting breakdown videos and strategies to MMA Premium, which you can find in the link below.

If you want FULL BREAKDOWNS of every single fight on the card, projections, rankings and more, you can find that in the Premium Section here. We’ve also launched the MMA LINEUP BUILDER which you can access with my projections if you purchase the premium content.

Onto the fights!

Cash Game Plays

1. Alex Volkanovski, 8.9k

One factor I always look for when navigating a cash game slate is the floor of my fighters. Sometimes this means that I want my fighter to score well in a win, if they win, and other times it means I want my fighter to score well regardless of whether they win or lose.

Ideally we get both, but in the highly volatile sport of MMA, that’s quite difficult. I do like the floor of Alex Volkanovski this week, if he wins he should score very well, and even in a loss I expect him to put up a decent number of points.

Volkanovski is a high-paced wrestler with power striking to back it up, and he’s a real prospect in the 145 division. He’s facing an undefeated wrestler in Jeremy Kennedy, but I think Volkanovski has more tools to his game and I expect him to use them en route to a victory. He’s only 8.9k, so we get a discount from the top tier of fighters, and he has the 100 point upside we look for as well.

Volkanovski has one of the safer projections on this card and I think he’s a strong option for the price in cash games.

2. Mizuto Hirota, 7.6k

Another fairly safe fighter is Mizuto Hirota, taking on veteran Ross Pearson, who has lost six of his last eight fights only took the two victories via split decision. There’s questions surrounding Pearson’s durability and fading athleticism, but that’s not the only reason I like Hirota.

One reason is his odds to win, which are only +135, and for 7.6k that means he’s underpriced. Pearson is a boxing specialist and should have the edge there, but Hirota has never been finished by strikes in his 26-fight career. Even in a loss, Hirota is capable of landing 50 significant strikes and a takedown or two, and he has enough gas in the tank to potentially pull off the decision.

In cash games we don’t need him to get the win, a 25 point score would be fine, and I think he’s more than capable of pulling that off for 7.6k.

Tournament Plays

1. Tyson Pedro, 9.1k

Pick who you like from the 9k tier, there are plenty of strong tournament options. I favor Tyson Pedro because he’s cheaper than the other two at only 9.1k, and he’s also more well-rounded than the other two.

Pedro still has a ways to go before he should be considered an elite fighter, but he’s very athletic, he’s a capable striker and a strong offensive wrestler. He’s facing Saparbek Safarov who likely shouldn’t be in the UFC, an older Russian fighter who’s only UFC fight led to a knockout loss after winging wild hooks for seven minutes.

As long as Pedro can avoid getting caught with a wild strike, he has the tools to hurt and finish Safarov along the way. He also has strong odds to finish at -145, according to Vegas. Pedro has clear upside worth targeting in tournaments.

2. Jose Quinonez, 8.7k

Another fighter with a bit of a discount against the top tier, I think Jose Quinonez makes for an interesting tournament target against Teruto Ishihara. To reach upside, we either need fighters who can finish or fighters who can wrestle, and Quinonez has an opportunity to land takedowns in this spot.

Ishihara is a striker first and foremost, but he’s only defended takedowns at a rate of 17 percent on the UFC which is awful, and that’s where Quinonez should have the advantage. Even though he came from a striking background, Quinonez has done his damage in the UFC with takedowns and has gotten the fight to the mat 10 times in his short four-fight career.

For only 8.7k, Quinonez doesn’t need 120 points to make him worth playing in tournaments, I think he’s capable of scoring 90 points in a victory that’s based on takedowns an advances. He’s currently -160 to win and there’s a strong chance he comes through with the win and a positive score, so I’m more than willing to target him in tournaments.

Fade of the Week

1. Ross Pearson, 8.6k

I referenced him earlier with the Mizuto Hirota fight but I don’t see much of a reason to play Ross Pearson this week. There are so many fighters with high upside, and several who can wrestle. Pearson is a low-output boxer who rarely wrestles and has a limited chance to earn a finish.

He’s also priced above the mid-range at 8.6k, meaning I’d like 90 or more points from him in GPPs. There are simply better options in my opinion, and I’m going to fade Pearson this weekend.

About the Author

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Brett Appley (bbbomb)

One of the top MMA minds in the DFS industry, Brett Appley a.k.a bbbomb has been writing his weekly “Beat Down” article for RotoGrinders since the sport launched on DraftKings in 2015. Brett has earned multiple Top 10 rankings in MMA since that time and has taken down a handful of tournaments as well.