UFC 222: Cyborg vs. Kunitskaya Quick Picks
Welcome back to the UFC Quick Picks! We have a solid PPV in UFC 222 this week, while the fights themselves are not the greatest, the prize pools on DraftKings have certainly kicked up a notch, and that’s what we’re here for.
There is also a big break in March while we get set for UFC 223 so don’t miss out this week!
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If you want FULL BREAKDOWNS of every single fight on the card, projections, rankings and more, you can find that in the Premium Section here. We’ve also launched the MMA LINEUP BUILDER which you can access with my projections if you purchase the premium content.
Onto the fights!
Cash Game Plays
1. Cris Cyborg, $9,700
We’ve seen high prices before, and although 9.7k is a big number to spend, Cris Cyborg is well worth it in cash games. She’s currently a -1750 favorite against Yana Kunitskaya, no that’s not a typo.
Similar to Cyborg’s fight with Tanya Evinger, Kunitskaya is being throw in from Invicta on short notice to step up a weight class and fight for the 145 pound title. Funny enough, Evinger actually fought Kunitskaya and submitted her within two rounds.
Cyborg is a massive favorite for a reason, she has all the advantages and is as close to a lock as there is in MMA. Her ITD line is -600 which is massively high and she has five full rounds to work for if necessary. I’m not thinking twice about this, I’m plugging in Cyborg in cash games.
2. Ketlen Vieira, $8,300
Part of my main strategy when creating cash game lineups has always revolved around targeting value, you should know this by now.
So when I see a -185 favorite priced at only 8.3k, that peaks my interest in cash games. That’s Ketlen Vieira this weekend, who is taking on Cat Zingano. To be honest I still have some concerns about Vieira, but she’s still undefeated, a solid grappler and improving striker.
Vieira should be priced above 8.8k based on her current Vegas line, and that’s the most important thing. In tournaments I will likely be underweight to the field and even have shares of Zingano, but in cash games I cannot ignore the equity we are given based on her Vegas line.
So for 8.3k, I’ll plug Vieira into my cash games and not think twice about it.
Tournament Plays
1. Mackenzie Dern, $9,000
I’ll start by saying Dern is a massive -440 favorite for her debut against Ashley Yoder, and I think that’s ridiculously high. But Dern is a fighter I’m willing to target in tournaments based on her fighting style and upside.
Dern is one of the best submission grapplers in the world, if she gets in top position she is prime to control, pass and look for a finish. Yoder is a solid matchup for Dern in the sense that Yoder’s strengths also lie in the submission grappling game, she’s not the best wrestler or striker in the world.
If Dern does get in top position, she can land a ton of passes and potentially finish with an ITD line of -164. She’s also cheaper than three other fighters meaning she is slightly easier to pay up for if you are approaching the top tier. Regardless, even though Dern has her flaws I’m willing to look her way in tournaments for the potential upside.
2. Sean O’Malley, $8,000
This is a risky play in the sense that Sean O’Malley has clear defensive flaws. He’s not the best wrestler and he’s so active on the feet that he leaves holes for pressure or counter fighters to capitalize on, depending on the matchup.
What I like about him is that he lands in very high volume on the feet and he’s facing Andre Soukhamthath, a fighter notorious for landing at a low rate. Soukhamthath has landed only 3.02 sig. strikes per minute in his UFC career, typically landing 40-50 sig. strikes in an entire fight. As a reference, O’Malley landed more than 50 sig. strikes in two separate rounds in his last bout en route to 141 total.
So the path to a victory is clear here, if O’Malley avoids getting taken down, avoids getting knocked out, he can win on volume. He’s the underdog currently which shows what people think of Soukhamthath, but I’m willing to target O’Malley in tournaments for 8k and hope he can get the job done.
Fade of the Week
1. John Dodson, $8,600
I have no problems with John Dodson but on this particular DraftKings slate, there are other fighters whom I’d rather target. Dodson is 8.6k which is moderately expensive, he will need a good score to end up on the optimal lineup. Most likely, he will need a finish.
Dodson is facing Pedro Munhoz who will be looking to score yet another win via his guillotine choke. Because of that, I don’t think it would be smart of Dodson to shoot for takedowns and give him the opportunity to catch a submission. He will need to score points with strikes and hope for a knockout.
Dodson’s ITD line is +405 which is not good for his line or price, and although it’s MMA and anything could happen, I’d just rather invest my money elsewhere.