UFC 223: Khabib vs. Iaquinta Quick Picks

This has been the craziest week in the last four years I’ve been covering the UFC, with the main event changing at least five times, and the drama with Conor McGregor. But we’ve made it, hopefully, and the card is still intact.

There are only nine fights, but we have Khabib vs. Iaquinta for the 155 title and Rose vs. JJ for the 115 title, and I will take that any day of the week. The contests are huge, and it seems many people are scared off the slate with only nine fights and have pulled there lineups, so be on the look out for overlay.

I do want to say that it will be important to be contrarian in large-field GPPs this week, especially if you are rostering some of the chalkier fighters. Leaving salary on the table is a very strong option.

If you want FULL BREAKDOWNS of every single fight on the card, projections, rankings and more, you can find that in the Premium Section here. We’ve also launched the MMA LINEUP BUILDER which you can access with my projections if you purchase the premium content.

Onto the fights!

Cash Game Plays

1. Khabib Nurmagomedov, 9.1k

The fighter you should be prioritizing the most in cash games is Khabib Nurmagomedov, who is only 9.1k on DraftKings. I say only 9.1k because he was priced there for his bout with Tony Ferguson, but has now moved to -525 on the betting line with Al Iaquinta stepping in.

Not only is there immense value on the price tag, but Khabib has the ultimate style for DraftKings, he’s a high-paced wrestle/grappler and has scored more than 93 points in seven consecutive bouts. Those were in three round fights. Now we get him for a full five rounds which just means a higher floor and ceiling.

The combination of these factors make Khabib the top cash game play on the card.

2. Felice Herrig, 7.2k

If you want to find a cheap value play this weekend, take a look at Felice Herrig at 7.2k. She’ll be fighting Karolina Kowalkiewicz who strikes at a high rate but isn’t the most dangerous opponent.

So at the very least, we should get three full rounds from Herrig which gives her a higher floor than most fighters. She may not be able to fully compete on the feet but she can at least contend, and give herself an opportunity to win if she can land takedowns throughout the fight. Herrig has won four straight and has landed six takedowns in that span, so it’s possible she lands a couple more throughout 15 minutes.

Herrig is also only +165 on the betting line, which means she’s a bit underpriced at 7.2k. For the high floor, ability to strike and grapple, and potential to win, I think she makes for a strong play in cash.

Tournament Plays

1. Zabit Magomedsharipov, 9.5k

I wasn’t as high on Zabit early in the week simply because he was going to be popular and there are so many other strong options in tournaments. We’ve now lost four fights from the card which means eight fighters, and the options are simply limited.

There’s absolutely merit to avoiding Zabit for his extreme popularity, but there’s also no doubt he’s the top tournament option on the card, outside of Khabib and outside of the winner from the co-main event.

Zabit has a -135 line to win ITD against his opponent Kyle Bochniak, he’s a talented striker and wrestler and he’s currently -605 on the betting line. If you’re going to spend up this weekend in tournaments, Zabit is a very strong choice.

2. Mike Rodriguez, 7.8k

He could be another popular choice below the mid-range, but I do think Mike Rodriguez is squarely in play for tournaments at 7.8k. He’s facing Devin Clark, a wrestler, and will first and foremost have to keep the fight standing.

If he can do that, Rodriguez has an eight-inch reach advantage and is far more comfortable on the feet. Clark has not looked comfortable and has a questionable chin, the narrative is there for Rodriguez to earn a finish in his UFC debut. Rodriguez also has a +144 line ITD which is very strong for the price, and he’s climbed to a slight favorite overall at -115.

I like Rodriguez quite a bit in tournaments this weekend.

Fade of the Week

1. Karolina Kowalkiewicz, 9k

I already mentioned her opponent Felice Herrig as a strong cash play, but I’m doubling down on Karolina as my fade of the week in tournaments. It doesn’t have anything to do with the fact she can’t beat Herrig, she can.

But she’s also 9k and she doesn’t wrestle. The fight overall has a very strong chance to end in a decision, which means we’re relying solely on her significant strike output. While she does land at a high rate, even 100 sig. strikes would only yield 80 points in a decision win.

That’s not enough for 9k, and so I’m just going to look at other options in that pricing tier.

About the Author

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Brett Appley (bbbomb)

One of the top MMA minds in the DFS industry, Brett Appley a.k.a bbbomb has been writing his weekly “Beat Down” article for RotoGrinders since the sport launched on DraftKings in 2015. Brett has earned multiple Top 10 rankings in MMA since that time and has taken down a handful of tournaments as well.