UFC 225: Whittaker vs. Romero Quick Picks
Finally UFC 225 is here! It’s one of the best cards of the year undoubtedly and we have two title fights still intact and a ton of money to be won on DraftKings.
There was also a new MMA Qualifier released this week, with 50K up top and 100 entrants who will vie for spots throughout the rest of 2018. With more than 300K in prizes overall, I could not be more excited for Saturday.
If you want FULL BREAKDOWNS of every single fight on the card, projections, rankings and more, you can find that in the Premium Section here. We’ve also launched the MMA LINEUP BUILDER which you can access with my projections if you purchase the premium content.
Onto the fights!
Cash Game Plays
1. Claudia Gadelha, $9,400
Unlike many weeks, the top priced cash fighter for UFC 225 isn’t a must-target, but I still consider Claudia Gadelha the safest option at 9.4k.
She comes in with a betting line of -525, the best on the board by far and she should have advantages everywhere this fight takes place. Her opponent Carla Esparza is a solid technical wrestler, but she will struggle in this matchup with the physicality of Gadelha.
I expect Gadelha to be able to muscle Esparza down to that mat if she chooses, but she should also be able to clearly win a striking-based fight as well. Gadelha isn’t a fighter super likely to score 100 points on this slate, in this matchup, but for cash games that’s a bit less important than taking a high floor and a victory and I think Gadelha is more than capable of that.
Even if she only lands a takedown or two with significant strikes, I think Gadelha is a strong cash game option this weekend.
2. Colby Covington, $8,000
This is less about whether Colby Covington will beat Rafael Dos Anjos and more about the floor he has in this particular matchup. He’s already an elite DraftKings scorer, he lands takedowns at a super high rate, but now we get him for a five-round fight.
Even if Covington loses this bout, I expect him to land takedowns, it will just mean Dos Anjos is able to scramble back to his feet. Those grappling points are extremely important in cash games though and they add up quickly, especially over 25 minutes.
Plus, Covington is priced as the underdog at 8k but has since moved to a -130 favorite on the betting line, giving him clear value on this slate. I’ll be honest, I think the best play is honestly to stack this entire fight and get all the points from Dos Anjos as well, it’s going to be fought at a high pace and the winner and loser could very well put up a big score.
But if you are just playing one fighter from this matchup, you take the odds value, you take the fighter who will wrestle and that’s Covington for 8k.
Tournament Plays
1. Rashad Coulter, $8,700
I said it last week with Ellenberger vs. Saunders and I will say it again here, I like both sides of this fight. Rashad Coulter is fighting Chris De La Rocha and they are two of the lowest level heavyweights in the division.
The odds on this fight ending inside the distance is -450, the best on the card. Coulter is probably a slight step up though and that’s why he’s the favorite here, he’ll have a good chance to knock Rocha out in the first round or two.
Coulter has very strong ITD odds at -130 for the price of 8.7k, making him an elite tournament option. It’s always scary to target these fights because there is so much risk and variance built in, but someone is likely to get finished and someone is likely to put up a big DraftKings score. The numbers side with Coulter in this spot and so will I.
2. Charles Oliveira, $8,400
Most of Charles Oliveira’s fights end inside the distance, he’s an elite submission grappler and often wins with a quick choke, but he also has a bad habit of quitting and giving up in the middle of fights.
So there’s concern here, but he’s only priced at 8.4k against Clay Guida. Oliveira is definitely the superior submission grappler and Guida is a wrestling-based fighter, it seems likely that this fight hits the mat. Guida has been submitted eight times in his career already and Oliveira has a good shot at being number nine.
For 8.4k, with an ITD line of +100, I think Oliveira is a strong tournament option and someone I’m definitely wiling to take chances on in tournaments.
Fade of the Week
1. Holly Holm, $8,900
You could argue Claudia Gadelha should be in this spot for tournaments, or Joseph Benavidez, but I guess I’ll lean with fading Holly Holm in tournaments this weekend. I do think she wins the matchup with Megan Anderson, Holm is definitely the superior striker.
But Holm doesn’t have a great style to generate fantasy points. She doesn’t wrestle and she lands at a super low rate of 2.79 significant strikes per minute. There’s a possibility Anderson will just chase her around and get lit up with counter-strikes, but unless Holm can get the finish she won’t put up a high enough score for 8.9k.
Her ITD line is +500 which is the worst of anyone in the top tier, so the oddsmakers clearly think her winning with a knockout is not the most likely outcome. I agree, though she can do it, the most likely scenario is a slower-paced, lower-scoring decision win. I’ll pass on that for 8.9k.