UFC 226 Quick Picks: Miocic vs. Cormier
With two fight cards this week on Friday and Saturday, two title fights and more than 20 bouts, DraftKings has posted some big prize pools! There is well over 300K up for grabs and seven qualifier seats.
I’m a bit ahead on my research so I figured I’d release the Quick Picks early. I will do a separate article for the TUF event, but the UFC 226 plays are posted below.
If you want FULL BREAKDOWNS of every single fight on the card, projections, rankings and more, you can find that in the Premium Section here. We’ve also launched the MMA LINEUP BUILDER which you can access with my projections if you purchase the premium content.
Onto the fights!
Cash Game Plays
1. Max Holloway, $8,300
There are two five-round fights on this slate, and one of the most common cash game strategies is to target fighters in main events, just given the potential to go two extra rounds.
My favorite cash game play from both the main and co-main events is Max Holloway, who is priced all the way down to 8.3k. I consider that a value even based on his betting line, as he’s one of the top pound-for-pound fighters in the game. I also love Holloway from a DraftKings perspective, he’s scored 115 or more in his past three bouts.
Holloway lands 6.2 significant strikes per minute which is an extremely high rate, and his opponent Brian Ortega absorbs 5.27, so I expect Holloway to bulk up on sig. strikes over the course of 25 minutes. If he can avoid the submission threat of Ortega, this should be his fight to win.
And at 8.3k in cash games, I will absolutely take the favorite in a high-paced, high-action fight that’s projected to last nearly 20 minutes.
2. Paul Felder, $7,400
The other top cash game strategy is to target values based on the betting line in comparison to the DraftKings salaries. The only true value on this card is Paul Felder, and he’s a massive one at 7.4k.
He’ll be fighting Mike Perry, whose original opponent was forced to pull out on short notice, and due to some odd circumstances, Felder was able to quickly step in. Felder is currently a -150 favorite over Perry, but DraftKings posted salaries prior to any odds being released on the matchup, so Felder is stuck with his 7.4k price tag.
There are certainly reasons to take the underweight approach from a tournament perspective, most the ownership angle and a potentially low ceiling for Felder. But in DraftKings, we take the value we are given and run with it.
Felder may only be able to yield 65 points in a decision victory, but he carries some upside as well and is an easy target for cash games.
Tournament Plays
1. Paulo Costa, $9,400
There are two heavy hitters at the top of the charts this week, Paulo Costa at 9.4k and Derrick Lewis at 9.3k, and both make for obvious tournament options due to their potential for a knockout.
But of the two, my preference is Costa, who holds an ITD line of -185.
Ngannou lands only 2.12 significant strikes per minute and isn’t likely to wrestle. We’ve seen him reach his upside in the past, securing quick finishes, but he rarely scores above 105 points.
Costa lands at a much higher rate, 8.28 significant strikes per minute. That number isn’t sustainable but it paints the picture of who is the more active fighter. Costa can still earn a knockout but he’s a bit more likely to reach that 105 point mark. Plus he’s fighting Uriah Hall who has not only been hurt in several recent fights but is coming off a literal heart attack and seizure during his last weigh-in attempt. I’m nervous for the health and safety of Hall.
But the point remains that Costa is a high-upside play on this slate I think you should have tournament exposure too, even at his expensive price tag.
2. Gokhan Saki, $8,400
For those who aren’t familiar with Gokhan Saki, he’s a veteran world-class kickboxer who has recently transitioned to MMA. His flaws are ones you might expect, lack of MMA experience, lack of wrestling and lack of cardio.
But he has power in his hands and the striking technique to go along with it.
This matchup with Khalil Rountree seems like a forgiving one, Rountree struggles with wrestlers and with cardio, and he likes to hunt for the knockout. But he’s nowhere near as experienced or technical as Saki.
Rountree has a puncher’s chance, and maybe his cardio is actually better and can show itself in the latter rounds, but early in this fight Saki will have a clear opportunity to hurt and finish Rountree. Saki’s ITD line is -130, which is phenomenal for a -145 favorite and elite for his 8.4k price tag.
In the mid-range, we’re looking for high-upside tournament options, and that’s exactly what Saki is. A boom or bust fighter with good metrics, and I’m willing to support that.
Fade of the Week
1. Raphael Assuncao, $9,100
I don’t expect a ton of ownership on Raphael Assuncao this week, but I also don’t think he’s a strong option at 9.1k. Generally he fights at a slow pace and has limited finishing ability, he hasn’t scored 100 points or more since 2013.
Assuncao is facing Rob Font, an opponent he very well may be able to outstrike and take a decision, but I’m not expecting an optimal-lineup type score from him. He lands only 3.37 significant strikes per minute and 1.36 takedowns per 15 minutes.
Plus his metrics aren’t strong, he’s currently a -165 favorite, only 20 points higher than Max Holloway at 8.3k. And his ITD line is +425, which is extremely poor. I’m just not willing to pay 9.1k, a price tag which requires 90-100 points, on Assuncao in this matchup.