UFC 227: Dillashaw vs. Garbrandt Quick Picks
Welcome to another edition of the UFC Quick Picks!
With two huge title fights to top the card, DraftKings has really increased the prize pools, giving out $30,000 to first place in the big $10. That’s enough for me to get excited and I’m happy to share some of my favorite options on the slate below.
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Onto the fights!
Cash Game Plays
1. TJ Dillashaw, $8,200
There are four opportunities to target fighters on this slate who have potential to fight for 25 minutes, and that’s important from a cash game perspective. All four make strong options, including both fighters in the Main Event, TJ Dillashaw and Cody Garbrandt.
Normally I don’t take ownership much into account in cash games, but after knocking Garbrandt out in the second round in their first matchup, I feel Dillashaw is the obvious favorite and will be ultra-popular in this format.
Even though I perceive this matchup closer than the majority of the public, there is zero chance I would play Garbrandt as a solo option. I honestly don’t love the idea of playing Dillashaw as a solo option either, I think the stack makes the most sense, but if I’m picking just one it’s going to be Dillashaw.
He will simply be too popular, and will kill your entire night if he wins ITD and you do not have him. With 25-minute upside and potential to win ITD, I think Dillashaw is a strong cash game play and someone you should definitely consider.
2. Henry Cejudo, $6,800
With many heavy favorites and strong options in the top tier, we need to find value somewhere, and I think Henry Cejudo is a worthwhile punt at 6.8k. In cash games, we’re just looking for someone with a high floor, someone who can earn a handful of points and will allow us to spend up elsewhere.
Cejudo is one of four fighters on this slate with potential to fight for 25 minutes and the fight is projected to last into the fourth round, and if Cejudo can make it that far, I have a hard time believing he can’t pay off the price tag.
Cejudo has the highest wrestling pedigree possible, an Olympic gold medal, and landing takedowns is the most effective way to score on DraftKings. If he can earn a couple takedowns, last into the fourth round, Cejudo could easily put up 30-50 points.
With many underdogs projected to be finished in quick fashion, I think it makes sense to punt with Cejudo and give yourself enough salary to pay up elsewhere.
Tournament Plays
1. Thiago Santos, $9,200
There are many ways to slice and dice the top tier of favorites this week, and each of those fighters are worth consideration. One of the strongest plays on this card from a tournament perspective is clearly Thiago Santos at 9.2k, and I will definitely have exposure to him this week.
Santos has the best ITD line on the card at -177 and is traditionally in fights that end inside the distance. He’s an aggressive striker with knockout power and he looks for the finish.
Santos is also facing a Contender Series alum who I don’t rate highly, and although there’s a chance his opponent Kevin Holland can survive, I do think Santos winning inside the distance is a reasonable expectation. If we’re looking for potential upside on this slate, there’s no doubting Santos has that, and although he’ll be chalky, he’s worth some exposure.
2. Cody Garbrandt, $8,000
When speaking about ownership, that’s definitely an important factor to consider in tournaments. Especially in large-field tournaments, when trying to beat out 18k opponents for a shot at a $30,000 prize, you have to think outside the box.
TJ Dillashaw won the first matchup by knockout and will be much more popular than Garbrandt this week, potentially for good reason. There’s no problems with rostering Dillashaw in tournaments, but understand that rostering him won’t separate you from the field.
Garbrandt is still strong on the betting line at +100 with an ITD line of +185, and make no mistake, he has tournament winning upside. I’ll be happy to target Garbrandt at a lower ownership in hopes of another high-variance performance, and I think he’s worth consideration this weekend.
Fade of the Week
1. Renato Moicano, $9,100
My first instinct was to name a fighter in the lower 7ks as my Fade of the Week because honestly, there is no expensive fighter that I feel comfortable fading and that includes Renato Moicano.
But when looking at options for large-field tournaments especially, I do feel Moicano is not as strong of an option as Johnson, Vera or Santos. With an ITD line of +349, we can comfortably rule out a finish for Moicano, and we’re likely relying on volume from him against Cub Swanson.
I do think he’ll land enough to get the job done, maybe even 100 significant strikes, but that would put him somewhere around the 80 point mark. That’s still not enough for 9.1k to win a tournament, and so I’m comfortable taking an underweight approach in large-field tournaments.