UFC 228: Woodley vs. Till Quick Picks
Welcome to another edition of the UFC Quick Picks!
We were supposed to have two title fights on this slate, but Shevchenko vs. Montano has been canceled so make sure to remove those fighters from your lineups. Even still, we have 13 fights and many high-action ones which could easily make for a high score slate. I’ve listed some of my favorite options below to help you get started.
If you want FULL BREAKDOWNS of every single fight on the card, projections, rankings and more, you can find that in the Premium Section here. We’ve also launched the MMA LINEUP BUILDER which you can access with my projections if you purchase the premium content.
Onto the fights!
Cash Game Plays
1. Jessica Andrade, $9,100
The top tier is stacked this week, and I don’t have much of a problem targeting any of the options in the 9k range, but Jessica Andrade is one fighter who I am prioritizing at 9.1k.
In cash games, it’s not always about upside, taking the floor into account is extremely important and Andrade has an incredible floor in this matchup against Karolina Kowalkiewicz.
Andrade lands 6.42 significant strikes per minute along with 3.24 takedowns per 15 minutes, her ability to generate offense is among some of the best in the sport. And I don’t feel Kowalkiewicz will prevent her from continuing that success. Andrade has put up 106 points or more in her last five wins, the majority of which came by decision, so her upside is top-notch even if this fight goes three rounds.
But I feel confident that Andrade can put up a solid number of points in a win or a loss, and she’s definitely someone I’m willing to target in cash games this weekend.
2. Frank Camacho, $7,500
We are going to need to save salary somewhere to fit in the studs this week, and I think Frank Camacho is a solid cash game option at 7.5k.
Camacho is notorious for landing at a high rate and absorbing lots of strikes in return, similar to Justin Gaethje. Generally his fights score very well, even in a loss he’s more than capable of producing 50 fantasy points.
There is some potential for him to get smashed early, but I think if he survives he will easily pay off that cheap price tag and give your cash game a strong boost. I’m not sold on the floor of many of these lower-tier options, and Camacho is definitely a the salary-saver that I prefer.
Tournament Plays
1. Zabit Magomedsharipov, $9,400
Among a dozen high-upside options on this slate, Zabit Magomedsharipov is undoubtedly one of the best options at 9.4k.
To start, Zabit is a massive -1050 favorite to win with an ITD line of -148, which is one of the best on the card. He’ll be facing Brandon Davis, who is a solid high-action striker but has struggled to defend takedowns.
If Zabit looks to wrestle in this matchup, which he has done at a rate of 6.56 per 15 minutes, he has incredible upside. He should have the opportunity to land several takedowns, advance position and work a submission. I know Zabit is expensive and you don’t need to force him into your lineups, but if spending up to this range, he’s absolutely worth consideration.
We love fighters who have potential to grapple, a strong chance to win and finish, and Zabit checks all those boxes. In tournaments, he’s worth exposure.
2. Abdul Razak Alhassan, $8,300
His matchup with Niko Price is arguably the best tournament fight on the slate, and it will be extremely popular, but that won’t stop me from rostering Abdul Razak Alhassan at 8.3k.
All of his professional wins have come via first round knockout, every single one of them. Alhassan looks to knock his opponents out quickly and he is very successful at it. And in tournaments, all we care about is upside and there’s no arguing Alhassan has as much upside as anyone on the slate.
His ITD line is +115, which is strong for the price, and 8.3k is a very reasonable tag to pay. I will definitely have exposure to his opponent Niko Price to ensure some lineups have the winner of this high-action fight, but Alhassan is my preferred option and he’s absolutely in play for tournaments.
Fade of the Week
1. Jarred Brooks, $9,000
It scares me to death to take an underweight stance on a high-volume wrestler, but that’s likely what I will do this week with Jarred Brooks at 9k. He’s simply too expensive for my liking.
Yes he can wrestle but he hasn’t advanced position much or landed sig. strikes in volume, so even with five takedowns he has failed to reach the 80 point mark. At 9k, he’ll need at least 90 points in tournaments, probably 100 or more. And I just don’t feel confident he can reach that score in a decision.
His ITD line is +151 which is reasonable, but I can’t count on him to finish when there are so many strong options in his surrounding price range. He’s not someone I want much exposure to this weekend for those reasons.