UFC 229: Nurmagomedov vs. McGregor Quick Picks
UFC 229 Fight Week is here!!!
There is more than $500,000 to be won DraftKings this weekend which includes seven Qualifier seats, and DK is giving away $100,000 to the winner of the $10 which is an incredible prize.
Not only that, but we have Conor McGregor back in action for the Main Event fighting his toughest test to date against the undefeated Khabib Nurmagomedov. It’s a great week for fight fans and a great week for DraftKings players.
If you want FULL BREAKDOWNS of every single fight on the card, projections, rankings and more, you can find that in the Premium Section here. We’ve also launched the MMA LINEUP BUILDER which you can access with my projections if you purchase the premium content.
Onto the fights!
Cash Game Plays
1. Khabib Nurmagomedov, 8.4k
The Main Event can be broken down in a variety of ways, but from a DraftKings perspective, it’s hard to ignore Khabib Nurmagomedov in cash games at his 8.4k price tag.
Regardless of whether you believe he will win the fight, Nurmagomedov is DraftKings gold, he lands takedowns at a rate of 5.44 per 15 minutes and will have five rounds to work this weekend. In his past eight fights, Khabib has scored a minimum of 94 points and has reached 107 or more six times.
If you don’t roster Khabib in cash games and he comes through with a win, which is somewhat likely considering his -165 betting line, you will be in a deep hole. He has simply too much upside to ignore in any format, and for 8.4k, he’s an easy cash game target in my eyes.
2. Tony Martin, 7.4k
There’s certainly merit to fading Tony Martin in tournaments considering his high projected ownership and relatively low ceiling, but he’s one of the best pure value plays on the card and I can’t ignore him in cash games for 7.4k.
We always talk about how value drives cash game construction and playing for the long-term is the best possible strategy, and that’s ultimately why Martin is a strong play this week. He’s +115 on the betting line signifying he should be priced around 8k, yet he comes in at 7.4k giving him a $600 discount.
His opponent Ryan LaFlare is also a weak finisher, so even if Martin loses he’s still expected to fight for a full three rounds. There aren’t too many obvious values on this slate but Martin at 7.4k is one of them and he’s someone I will take advantage of in cash games.
Tournament Plays
1. Vincente Luque, 9.4k
He’s only priced $100 more than Tony Ferguson, and that may keep his ownership relatively low, but nobody has better metrics on this slate than Vincente Luque.
Luque is currently a -850 favorite with an ITD line of -270, and he’s a dangerous finisher both on the feet and on the mat. His opponent Jalin Turner will be making his UFC debut and Turner may actually be a decent striker, but he’s also very inexperienced and green.
Turner has also been finished multiple times on the regional scene so it’s not as if his chin can’t be tested. If Luque can survive the early pressure of Turner, which the odds suggest he will, Luque will be primed for a knockout or submission finish before the final bell.
I would never advise forcing in a fighter at his price tag, but if you do have the extra salary to spend up, Luque is one of the very best plays on the slate.
2. Dominick Reyes, 8.9k
In terms of upside, Dominick Reyes is another very strong option and someone who you don’t necessarily need to break the bank to roster. He’s only 8.9k, a clear step below the top tier of fighters and I expect that will drive his ownership up.
Reyes has only fought in the UFC three times, but he’s finished all three of his opponents in the first round and is generally known as a finisher. There are absolutely risks that come with targeting Reyes, most notably that we haven’t seen him fight out of the first round and his current opponent Ovince Saint Preux will be his toughest test.
But risks can be pushed aside in tournaments, because all we care about is targeting upside. Reyes has an ITD line of -159 which is the second best on the slate, and OSP has had his chin tested on many occasions. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Reyes earn another finish and I’m willing to target him in tournaments this weekend.
Fade of the Week
1. Sergio Pettis, 8.6k
The brother of Anthony Pettis, Sergio has been hyped up for quite a while and his skill set continues to develop. He will have a tough challenge ahead of him this weekend with Jussier Formiga and many expect Pettis to come through.
But from a DraftKings perspective, I don’t have much interest in investing in Pettis. Formiga is a world-class submission grappler and that will prevent Pettis from landing takedowns or advancing position, which is the best way to score.
Pettis is also generally a low-volume striker and has yet to finish a UFC fight in 11 tries. His ITD line is +650 which is very poor for the price. He will not be a high-exposure target for me this weekend.