UFC 230: Cormier vs. Lewis Quick Picks
Welcome back to another edition of the UFC Quick Picks!
We have a Madison Square Garden card this weekend for UFC 230 and the prize pools on DraftKings are more than solid!
If you want FULL BREAKDOWNS of every single fight on the card, projections, rankings and more, you can find that in the Premium Section here. We’ve also launched the MMA LINEUP BUILDER which you can access with my projections if you purchase the premium content.
Onto the fights!
Cash Game Plays
1. Daniel Cormier, 9.6k
There are certainly ways to get sneaky and avoid Daniel Cormier in cash games, but at 9.6k, there’s no arguing he’s one of the safest fighters on this slate and someone I’m interested in paying up for.
Not only is he the heaviest favorite on the card at -605, he also carries the best ITD line at -400, and he gets the opportunity to fight for a full five rounds which only raises his floor. Plus he holds a world-class pedigree in wrestling and is likely to land takedowns and advances in this spot against Derrick Lewis.
The metrics make sense and Cormier is traditionally a strong DraftKings scorer. Anything can happen in MMA but I don’t think we should be afraid to target Cormier in cash games this weekend.
2. Roxanne Modafferi, 6.8k
There are many lopsided fights this weekend and it can be quite difficult to spend up to target the high-priced fighters we desire, we need to save salary somewhere.
One of my favorite options in cash games would be to punt with Roxanne Modafferi at 6.8k. The reasoning is simple, priced below her are two fighters in Lewis and Saunders who have potential to get finished quickly.
Modafferi is fighting Sijara Eubanks and the Over on 2.5 rounds is currently -330. Modafferi is capable of striking at a high pace and if this fight goes the full distance, she’s more than likely to reach the 25-35 point mark.
That’s never going to thrill you, but it’s a safe floor and provides the salary relief you might need in order to spend up to the top tier.
Tournament Plays
1. Israel Adesanya, 9.1k
I don’t rate Israel Adesanya overwhelmingly higher than other tournament targets, but I do think he’s a decent play for the price tag of 9.1k in tournaments.
He’s a world-class kickboxer and fighting Derek Brunson, who notoriously takes damage by rushing into the pocket with his chin in the air. There’s certainly the possibility for that to happen this weekend and if Brunson isn’t careful, he will find himself on the losing end of another knockout.
Adesanya has a solid ITD line of -105 and is reasonably priced compared to the top tier, I think he’s someone to consider in your tournament portfolio on this slate.
2. Karl Roberson, 8.7k
There are many strong plays in the mid-8k range this week and one of the higher upside options is Karl Roberson at 8.7k. He carries an ITD line of -122 which is the third best on the slate and he’s still -270 to win overall.
Those are very strong metrics for the price and they intrigue me for tournaments when we are searching for upside. He hasn’t shown the best of himself in the UFC and he is still inexperienced, this isn’t a play that comes without risk. But he should get the style of fight he wants against Jack Marshman and is more than capable of using his high-level kickboxing skills to hurt Marshman and find a finish.
I’m definitely willing to target Roberson in tournaments this week and for the price I think he should be someone you consider as well.
Fade of the Week
1. Julio Arce, 9.2k
With so many strong tournament options on this slate, someone I’m not looking to target is Julio Arce at 9.2k.
He’s in a pricing tier with fighters like Adesanya, Vannata and it only costs a couple hundred more dollars to spend up to the big guns. Arce has an ITD of +280 which is worse than fighters like Jacare Souza and Marcos Rogerio De Lima who are priced in the mid 7k range.
It simply comes down to price and my expectation of the matchup. Arce is a solid prospect but he’s too expensive and I’d rather pay for almost every other fighter in his price range.