UFC 231: Holloway vs. Ortega Quick Picks
Welcome back to another edition of the UFC Quick Picks!
We have a fantastic card this week headlined by Max Holloway vs. Brian Ortega with Valentina Shevchenko vs. Joanna Jedrzejczyk in the Co-Main Event. DraftKings has ramped up the prize pools and this will be the last week to earn a spot in the MMA Knockout King Qualifier, so it should be a great weekend.
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Onto the fights!
Cash Game Plays
1. Alexander Rakic, 9.5k
There are a lot of strong plays in the top tier this weekend but the heaviest favorite on the slate is Alexander Rakic, and I think he’s a solid cash game target at 9.5k.
He’s a favorite booked at -650 with an ITD line of -133, and he’s coming off a phenomenal performance against Justin Ledet, in which he looked strong in every facet of the game. His opponent this week is Devin Clark who is much more wrestling based and should be trying to take Rakic down.
I’m not sold on Rakic’s takedown defense, but I think he’s technical enough and physically strong enough to keep the fight standing for a long period of time. He’ll be massively bigger than Clark and is the much more dangerous striker, and likely finds his way to a TKO.
If you’re paying up in cash games this week, Rakic is definitely a fighter worth considering.
2. Joanna Jedrzejczyk, 6.8k
One of the more obvious cash game plays is Joanna Jedrzejczyk at 6.8k, against Valentina Shevchenko in the 125 lb. title this weekend.
Jedrzejczyk is a sizable underdog, as long as she makes it the 25 minute distance, she will land enough significant strikes to easily pay off the price tag. She lands 6.44 significant strikes per minute and the Over on 4.5 rounds is -225.
I expect Jedrzejczyk to be very competitive standing and even in a loss, she’s likely to score 40 or more points. At 6.8k, I am plugging Jedrzejczyk into my cash game lineups.
Tournament Plays
1. Diego Ferreira, 9.2k
After two opponents fell out, Diego Ferreria gets Kyle Nelson on literally three days notice and is a massive favorite at -485.
The DraftKings salaries had already been released so we get Ferreira at a value of 9.2k. Nelson coming in on short notice is a concern and I’m not sold that he has an MMA-ready game, but Ferreira is a strong striker and a high-level submission grappler and there’s certainly room for him to finish inside the distance.
Ferreira ITD is actually -140 and growing, so the upside is there in terms of his metrics. There are many strong plays but I think Ferreira is a solid tournament option for the price and I will have exposure to him on this slate.
2. Gunnar Nelson, 8.4k
One of the fights I am most excited for is Gunnar Nelson vs. Alex Oliveira and it’s a very strong mid-range fight to target in tournaments.
Nelson is a submission grappling specialist and if he finds his way into top position on Oliveira, he’ll have a strong chance of securing a finish. Oliveira has tools that can threaten Nelson, specifically size, strength and knockout power.
But Nelson is a far superior grappler and Oliveira has questionable Fight IQ. At 8.4k, considering Nelson is grappling based and has an ITD line of +100, he’s a very strong tournament option and one of the most likely fighters to earn a finish on the slate.
I will also have exposure to Oliveira in case he can hurt Nelson early, but either way, Nelson makes for a very strong tournament target.
Fade of the Week
1. Katlyn Chookagian, 8.7k
She has made this list before but at 8.7k, I won’t have much or any exposure to Katlyn Chookagian against Jessica Eye.
Chookagian just doesn’t score enough points, she doesn’t wrestle and isn’t a power striker. In a decision win, she’s not likely to reach 80 points and at 8.7k, I’d be looking for 90 or more. I can’t assume she will finish the fight with an ITD line of +545 and there are other strong plays in her price range.
If I have to make cuts, Chookagian is one of the first fighters to make the list.