UFC 232: Jones vs. Gustafsson Quick Picks

Welcome back to another edition of the UFC Quick Picks!

UFC 232 is here! The rematch between Jon Jones and Alexander Gustafsson, along with Cyborg vs. Nunes and a whole lot more. DraftKings has really pushed the prize pools this week with 50K up top in the $10, and more than $300,000 in prize pools.

I’ve listed some of my favorite plays down below in order to help you get started!

If you want FULL BREAKDOWNS of every single fight on the card, projections, rankings and more, you can find that in the Premium Section here. We’ve also launched the MMA LINEUP BUILDER which you can access with my projections if you purchase the premium content.

Onto the fights!

Cash Game Plays

1. Jon Jones, 9.1k

There’s no time for funny business if you’re playing cash games on this slate, the fighter I am prioritizing first in this format is Jon Jones at 9.1k.

Jones is the Main Event favorite at -265 and has a very high floor and ceiling with potential to go five rounds, which checks off many of the boxes we look for in cash games. And he has a very strong ceiling as well, with an ITD line of +116.

Jones put up 102 points in the first bout with Gustafsson and I expect him to produce a similar score if he can get the victory again here. Jones lands at a high rate of 4.41 significant strikes per minute and lands 2.13 takedowns per 15 minutes, he’s a very solid DraftKings scorer.

If he was 9.5k maybe it would be worth considering other options, but for the cheap tag of only 9.1k I think Jones is one of the most obvious cash game plays on the slate.

2. Cris Cyborg, 9.2k

Again, I think it’s important to stick to a tight process in cash games and it makes sense to target Cris Cyborg at 9.2k, another five round favorite with upside.

Cyborg has produced offense at a high rate in her few UFC performances, landing 7.02 significant strikes per minute while only absorbing 1.79. Even in a decision win, I expect Cyborg to surpass the 80 point mark with upside for 100, and her ITD line of -125 suggests she has high upside as well.

Her opponent Amanda Nunes is a strong fighter in the Bantamweight division but I expect Cyborg to have many physical advantages as well as some technical ones, and that should keep her live for the majority of the fight. With that said, her floor is very solid and she doesn’t exactly break the bank to roster.

There is merit to fading this fight or the Main Event in spots in tournaments, but in cash games, I think Cyborg is a very strong option and is definitely someone to consider.

Tournament Plays

1. Michael Chiesa, 9k

One of many high-upside targets priced below the Champions, I like Michael Chiesa as a tournament target because he has strong grappling potential.

He’s priced at 9k so he’s not cheap, but if Chiesa reaches his upside, that will likely include early takedowns, advances and potentially a submission. He’s fighting a true veteran in Carlos Condit and definitely has risk, but Condit is a poor defensive wrestler with a rating of 37 percent, and I think there’s a reasonable chance Chiesa can take advantage of that.

And if he gets in top position early, he will have the opportunity to take the back and find a choke. That’s all I care about, the potential, not necessarily what will happen during the fight. Wrestlers score extremely well on DraftKings and Chiesa has more wrestling upside than the majority of fighters on this slate.

For tournaments especially, Chiesa is a fighter I would recommend exposure to.

2. Walt Harris, 8.6k

We’re always looking for upside in tournaments regardless of the risk, and there’s no denying Walt Harris has upside for 8.6k. All 11 of his pro wins have come by TKO and many have come in the first round.

He’s not an elite technical fighter and has holes in his game, ones that his opponent Andrei Arlovski could expose, but if Harris reaches his upside, that could come in the form of another early knockout and he’d be very much in play for the optimal lineup.

Arlovski has fought to decision in many of his recent fights, but he’s also been knocked out 10 times in his career. He’s absolutely hittable and Harris has definite power. It’s not a fighter I feel super confident in, but with an ITD line of -110 at 8.6k, I think Harris is a very solid tournament option.

Fade of the Week

1. Ryan Hall, 9.4k

It’s rare that I’d call the heaviest favorite and the most expensive fighter my fade of the week but that’s what we have here with Ryan Hall vs. BJ Penn.

I do think Hall wins this fight, and even has potential to finish, but his ITD line is not too strong at +240 and he absolutely will need 100-110 points to have any shot at the optimal lineup. And Hall isn’t a high volume striker or wrestler, which means he needs an early finish to get that done.

It’s not impossible, but with strong plays like Yan, Jones, Cyborg, Chiesa and more priced below him, I’m not willing to invest a ton of money praying Hall gets that early finish.

Cover Image Credit: USAToday Sports Images

About the Author

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Brett Appley (bbbomb)

One of the top MMA minds in the DFS industry, Brett Appley a.k.a bbbomb has been writing his weekly “Beat Down” article for RotoGrinders since the sport launched on DraftKings in 2015. Brett has earned multiple Top 10 rankings in MMA since that time and has taken down a handful of tournaments as well.