UFC 234: Whittaker vs. Gastelum Quick Picks
Welcome back to another edition of the UFC Quick Picks!
UFC 234 is this weekend and that means bigger prize pools on DraftKings, there’s even a February promotion for a $40K, $100 entry GPP which is nice to see. DK also has released more Qualifiers for next year’s Knockout King, so all in all there’s plenty of money up for grabs on the slate.
If you want FULL BREAKDOWNS of every single fight on the card, projections, rankings and more, you can find that in the Premium Section here. We’ve also launched the MMA LINEUP BUILDER which you can access with my projections if you purchase the premium content.
Onto the fights!
Cash Game Plays
1. Lando Vannata, 9.3k
He’s never a safe option, but Lando Vannata is the second heaviest favorite on the board at -420, and he has the best ITD line on the slate at -210.
Vannata has always produced offense at a high rate, landing 5.03 significant strikes per minute along with 1.52 takedowns per 15, so in that sense his floor is safe as well. He’ll be fighting a training parter of Anderson Silva, named Marcos Rosa or Marcos Mariano, who only has a 6-4 record and doesn’t have the skills to compete at this level.
Especially on the ground, Rosa is a fish out of water and Vannata should have no problems dominating the ground exchanges if he decides to wrestle. I don’t love the Fight IQ from Vannata but I do like his metrics in this spot and he’s facing a weak enough opponent where I do expect him to take advantage.
At 9.3k, I’m willing to pay up for Vannata in cash games.
2. Kelvin Gastelum, 7.3k
It feels weird to write up Kelvin Gastelum in this spot because I’m picking Robert Whittaker to beat him fairly comfortably, but in cash games, it’s hard to ignore the 7.3k price tag.
We always like to target the Main Event in this format, and the underdogs priced below Gastelum are mostly awful. There aren’t many places to find value on this slate.
Gastelum has never been knocked out, and as long as he can survive a few rounds, he should be able to land enough strikes to avoid a zero and theoretically pay off the price. I don’t have a problem with targeting Whittaker in cash games or tournaments, but if you’re looking for a place to spend down, I like Gastelum as an option in cash games.
Tournament Plays
1. Montana De La Rosa, 8.8k
There are legitimately 10 or more favorites who I want exposure to on this slate and ones I think have legitimate upside. Montana De La Rosa doesn’t stand out as the best of the bunch but I do think she’s a decent play at her price of 8.8k.
She’ll be taking on Nadia Kassem, who was easily taken down by Alex Chambers in her UFC debut at 115 lbs. Chambers is not a great talent, and now Kassem is moving up to 125 lbs. to take on a more experienced wrestler and grappler.
The play is simple here, get some exposure to Rosa in hopes she lands takedowns, and if that happens, she’ll be in play to advance position and find an early submission. Her ITD line is stronger than you would expect for a women’s Flyweight bout at +149, so her finishing potential is real.
In tournaments, I’m willing to take the risk and I will have exposure to Rosa this weekend.
2. Jalin Turner, 8.7k
Another high-upside option, Jalin Turner was actually knocked out in round one in his UFC debut by Vincente Luque.
That’s not a great sign, but Luque is a talented striker and Turner is dropping back to his normal weight class of 155 lbs. to take on a short-notice Australian regional opponent in Callan Potter.
I’ve seen worse prospects than Potter, but if Turner can keep the fight standing he should have a significant advantage. He lands at a high rate on the feet and should have upside for a finish considering his ITD line of -165 is one of the best on the slate.
Potter has also been finished in all seven of his regional losses, so the narrative is there as well. Of course there is risk but I like the upside on Turner this weekend.
Fade of the Week
1. Israel Adesanya, 9.6k
I have no choice but to write Israel Adesanya up as a fade this weekend. There are too many other high-upside options that are priced below Adesanya.
For Adesanya to even be considered on the optimal lineup, he’ll need an early knockout. That’s certainly possible, but then you’ll still be competing with 30 percent of the field who also target him, and you’ll likely also need cheaper underdogs to come through.
It’s quite difficult to even find the salary to reach up to Adesanya this weekend, and that’s a big issue. He’s also not going to wrestle (obviously), and I think there’s a real chance Silva can limit damage like he normally does.
I don’t have a problem if you want to target Adesanya this weekend but I do think there’s legitimate cause for concern for him to easily hit the optimal lineup.