UFC 235: Jones vs. Smith Quick Picks
Welcome back to another edition of the UFC Quick Picks!
UFC 235 is finally here, it’s a stacked card and the DraftKings contests are some of the best we’ve seen in recent memory, with $50,000 to first place in the $15. I’ve listed some of my favorite plays below to help you get started!
If you want FULL BREAKDOWNS of every single fight on the card, projections, rankings and more, you can find that in the Premium Section here. We’ve also launched the MMA LINEUP BUILDER which you can access with my projections if you purchase the premium content.
Onto the fights!
Cash Game Plays
1. Jon Jones, 9.6k
Essentially a free square this weekend, I consider Jon Jones a lock in cash games at 9.6k against Anthony Smith.
Jones is a -800 favorite in this matchup and is the more skilled fighter in almost all aspects of the game, and unless he gets knocked out or picks up a mid-fight injury, Jones is going to win.
Jones lands 4.43 significant strikes per minute along with 2.09 takedowns per 15, and even in a decision should put up a fair number of points. In all reality, Jones should earn a finish as he holds an ITD line of -410. I expect him to take advantage of Smith on the mat, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him finish in the first round or two.
Assuming Jones does earn the victory, he holds a floor of 90 points and a ceiling of 120, and any number in that range should be enough to pay off the 9.6k price tag in cash games.
2. Cody Stamann, 8.6k
There are a number of solid options below Jon Jones, and none of them are necessarily must-plays, but one option I like is Cody Stamann at 8.6k.
His price is very reasonable, and he’s a moderate favorite at -200. I’m not expecting him to finish, but that’s OK, he’s landed 4.97 sig. strikes per minute along with 4.19 takedowns per 15, and has a very high floor even in a decision victory.
Stamann is fighting Alejandro Perez, who could make the bout competitive, but he shouldn’t prevent Stamann from landing on the feet and on the mat, and that should allow Stamann to put up a safe total. If you can’t pay up to the top tier, Stamann is a mid-range option who is worth consideration.
Tournament Plays
1. Ben Askren, 9k
Many times we focus on ITD lines when approaching tournament targets, but there are other ways to score on DraftKings, namely via wrestling.
And Ben Askren is a high-volume wrestler, that’s his one and only game plan and he’s had major success in his professional career. He is a former Olympian and D1 National Champion, so his skills are legit.
He’s only -275 and very unlikely to finish, but if he wins, he’s likely to land several takedowns and advances. At 9k, he has a realistic shot to put up 100 or more points, and he’s absolutely worth paying up for on this slate.
Of course there are risks, if he can’t get the fight down he will lose, but we’re always searching for upside in tournaments and that’s all that matters. I’m willing to take some chances on Askren in his debut and hope that his wrestling takes over.
2. Zabit Magomedsharipov, 8.9k
Another very solid option near the top tier, Zabit Magomedsharipov has put up a ton of DraftKings points in his UFC career.
In four fights, Zabit has scored 114, 153, 107 and 122 points, and he’s produced offense at an extreme rate. He’s landed 4.49 sig. strikes per minute along with 7.24 takedowns, and there’s a realistic chance he can duplicate that performance this weekend against Jeremy Stephens.
Magomedsharipov will need a big score at his price of 8.9k, but if he approaches 100 points again that should be enough to hit the optimal lineup. It could be a challenge, but Stephens has yielded points on the mat before and Magomedsharipov has potential to capitalize on that.
He wont be an all-in play for me this weekend, but Zabit has been such a prolific scorer in the UFC, I’m willing to invest some money in case he continues that streak.
Fade of the Week
1. Polyana Viana, 9.2k
In all honesty, there’s not a single favorite that stands out as a complete fade to me, and I honestly think Polyana Viana has potential to earn a submission this weekend. But she’s priced up at 9.2k and if there’s one fighter I have to cut, it’s going to be her.
She’s still a questionable talent and her betting line has been dropping, and she’s clearly not as strong of a play as the majority of options in her surrounding price tier. She doesn’t have many striking skills, or wrestling skills, so she’ll need to find her way to the mat and lock up a choke to even have a shot at the optimal lineup.
Though she’ll be very low owned, I don’t think it’s smart to make a major investment in her this weekend, and I will be very light on overall exposure.