UFC 236: Holloway vs. Poirier Quick Picks
Welcome back to another edition of the UFC Quick Picks!
We have a stacked card this week with Max Holloway vs. Dustin Poirier and Israel Adesanya vs. Kelvin Gastelum, and it should be a fantastic night of fights. With lots of money to be won on DraftKings, I’ve listed some of my favorite plays below to help you get started.
If you want FULL BREAKDOWNS of every single fight on the card, projections, rankings and more, you can find that in the Premium Section here. We’ve also launched the MMA LINEUP BUILDER which you can access with my projections if you purchase the premium content.
Onto the fights!
Cash Game Plays
1. Max Holloway, 9.1k
As our friend Suntszu pointed out yesterday, stacking the Main Event in cash games may be the worst kept secret of the week. I’ll be plugging in both Max Holloway at 9.1k, and Dustin Poirier at 7.1k, but if I had to choose just one, it would be Holloway.
Holloway just produces offense at a rate unlike any other fighter in the sport, he’s landed 6.9 significant strikes per minute in his UFC career and is coming off a whopping 290 sig. strike performance in four rounds against Brian Ortega. Even in a loss, it’s possible Holloway could put up a massive total, but there’s not doubting his ceiling is higher than any other fighter on the slate as well.
Poirier will be a tough challenge for him, but with five rounds to play with, I expect non-stop action and that should yield a high fantasy total. Holloway is a cash game lock for me this weekend.
2. Kelvin Gastelum, 7k
He’s another option I don’t have to think too hard about, but Kelvin Gastelum at 7k is a fairly obvious cash game choice on this slate.
There’s literally only one other fighter priced below him, but Gastelum is only +165 to win, +238 to finish and has five rounds to work with. The odds suggest this fight is not likely to end quickly, and if Gastelum even makes it to round five, he’s very likely to pay off that total in cash games.
In tournaments, I may choose to take an underweight approach given his popularity, but in cash games I will take the savings and safe floor that comes with Gastelum in this matchup.
Tournament Plays
1. Jalin Turner, 8.4k
There are a ton of strong tournament options on this slate, and Jalen Turner is one of my favorites at 8.4k.
He’s very easy to fit at that price and has clear tournament-winning upside with an ITD line of +135. Turner should have a clear advantage while this fight plays out on the feet, he holds a six-inch reach advantage and is facing an opponent who has been knocked down four times in four UFC rounds.
I do have concerns about what will happen if Turner can’t put his opponent away quickly, but in tournaments that doesn’t matter, I’m only searching for upside. Turner is coming off a first round KO and I believe he has potential to duplicate that performance this weekend, so I will definitely be adding him to my player portfolio.
2. Eryk Anders, 9k
I’m not a big fan of Anders in general from a fantasy perspective, but he’s in a high-upside matchup this week with Khalil Rountree, and I do think he’s worth considering at 9k.
Anders has landed 2.05 takedowns per 15 minutes and Rountree only defends at 50 percent, meaning there’s a very strong chance Anders can earn top position in this matchup. Once that happens, he will have potential to advance position and potentially secure a submission, which is a great way to score on DraftKings.
Anders has an ITD line of +144 which is fairly strong, and in combination with his potential to grapple, I believe he has more than enough upside to target at 9k.
Fade of the Week
1. Poliana Botelho, 8.9k
I’m not completely opposed to the idea that Poliana Botelho could get a finish, but at 8.9k, she’s simply too expensive for me to test my luck.
Botelho is priced just under Anders, Holloway, Adesanya and Jackson, who could each put up a high score and kick her off the optimal lineup. Plus there are a handful of high-upside scorers in the mid-range as well.
Botelho is only -155 to win and not the best fantasy scorer in general, her only hope to reach the optimal lineup is to get a first round finish. For 8.9k, I’m not willing to take the risk, and she won’t be included in my player pool this weekend.