UFC 237: Namajunas vs. Andrade Quick Picks
Welcome back to another edition of the UFC Quick Picks!
We have a stacked card this weekend for UFC 237, and lots of big names like Anderson Silva, Jose Aldo and BJ Penn. Not to mention an incredible title fight between Rose Namajunas and Jessica Andrade.
If you want FULL BREAKDOWNS of every single fight on the card, projections, rankings and more, you can find that in the Premium Section here. We’ve also launched the MMA LINEUP BUILDER which you can access with my projections if you purchase the premium content.
Onto the fights!
Cash Game Plays
1. Raoni Barcelos, 9.6k
It’s tough to argue against Raoni Barcelos as the top cash game play on the slate, even at his expensive price tag of 9.6k.
Barcelos is a whopping -1100 favorite, with a -235 ITD line, taking on Carlos Huachin in his UFC debut. Huachin is stepping up on short notice from the Peruvian regional scene, and the odds suggest Barcelos is a test the 22-year-old won’t be able to pass.
Barcelos is capable of striking at a high rate, landing 5.66 sig. strikes per minute, and he’s also landed 3.63 takedowns per 15 minutes. Once in top position, Barcelos is a high-level submission grappler and should be able to take advantage of Huachin’s weakness on the mat.
Regardless, the metrics are incredible for Barcelos in this matchup, and he’s an extremely safe play with upside. He is the best cash game play on the slate.
2. Jessica Andrade, 8.3k
The Main Event favorite is always a title that interests me in cash games, and Jessica Andrade fits that bill this weekend in her title fight against Rose Namajunas.
Andrade produces offense at one of the highest rates in the sport, she’s landed 6.58 significant strikes per minute, as well as 3.2 takedowns per 15 minutes. In her last six victories, Andrade has never scored less than 106 points, and it’s because of that offensive production.
This will certainly be a competitive matchup with Namajunas, who also makes for a strong cash game play, but I consider Andrade a must-target in this format. Her ability to pressure, land with volume and power, and mix up her wrestling gives her an incredible floor, and the 25-minute potential just adds to her appeal.
I will be locking Andrade into my cash game lineups.
Tournament Plays
1. Clay Guida, 9.5k
Another massive favorite, Clay Guida gets an extremely soft matchup against the legend BJ Penn, and comes in at -750 on the betting line.
The reasoning is simple, Penn has not won a fight since 2010, he’s declined athletically and doesn’t produce much offense at this point in his career. Guida still fights hard, is a capable striker and wrestler, and that should be enough to get the victory.
Penn has been finished in three of his past four fights, and Guida comes in with an ITD line of -138, which is one of the best on the slate.
Guida at 9.5k is expensive, but if he finishes the fight early, he’s very likely to top 100 points. Barcelos is another extremely strong option in this range, so I don’t consider Guida an all-in play, but I will have exposure to both on this slate.
2. Ryan Spann, 8.8k
Another high-upside option that I’m willing to roster in tournaments, Ryan Spann takes on veteran Antonio Rogerio Nogueira, who has fought only once since 2016.
Nogueira is actually coming off a knockout victory against Sam Alvey, showing he still has something left in the tank. Spann is a winnable matchup for him as well, but Spann is 15 years younger, much taller and longer, and much more athletic.
Spann has won 13 of his 15 professional victories inside the distance, and he’ll undoubtedly be looking to take out Nogueira early. Spann has one of the best ITD lines on the slate at +114, and that’s enough for me to invest in him in large-field tournaments.
There is certainly risk with this play, but I’m always searching for upside in tournaments and Spann has clear upside for his 8.8k price tag.
Fade of the Week
1. Luana Carolina, 8.9k
It makes me a bit nervous, Luana Carolina is taking on one of the worst fighters in the division in Priscila Cachoeira, but she’s expensive at 8.9k and I’m not sure she’s worth the price.
Carolina is making her UFC debut this weekend, she’s only 5-1 professionally and isn’t a great talent either. She also comes in with an ITD line of +350, which I do not love for 8.9k. At that price, I’m looking for a finish, especially with great options priced above her.
I don’t trust Carolina can pick up a finish based on those metrics, and I’d rather take chances on other fighters in her price range with superior upside. Even though Carolina is expected to earn the victory this weekend, I won’t have much or any exposure to her on DraftKings.