UFC 238: Cejudo vs. Moraes Quick Picks
Welcome back to another edition of the UFC Quick Picks!
We have a stacked card this week for UFC 238 and big prize pools to go with it on DraftKings. I’ve listed some of my favorite plays below to help you get started!
If you want FULL BREAKDOWNS of every single fight on the card, projections, rankings and more, you can find that in the Premium Section here. We’ve also launched the MMA LINEUP BUILDER which you can access with my projections if you purchase the premium content.
Onto the fights!
Cash Game Plays
1. Tatiana Suarez, 9.5k
One of the best DraftKings targets in the sport, Tatiana Suarez will be the centerpiece of my cash game lineups this weekend against Nina Ansaroff at 9.5k.
Yes she is expensive, but Suarez has averaged 130 fantasy points in her four UFC bouts, and carries a 7.5 takedown per 15 minute average, which is incredible. Suarez has an extremely high wrestling pedigree, and has shown the ability to dominate opponents on the mat, advance position and search for a finish.
Suarez is one of the heaviest favorites at -750, with the the best ITD line at -151, so her floor and upside are tremendous in this matchup as well. She’s an absolute lock for me in cash games.
2. Angela Hill, 7.1k
If you need a place to save salary on the slate, I think Angela Hill is a solid option at 7.1k for cash games.
Hill is fighting Yan Xiaonan, and we should be in for a stand-up based matchup for the majority of 15 minutes. The fight as a whole is -410 to go to decision, and Hill has considerable price value at +135 to win.
Both fighters are high-volume strikers, and Hill has landed 5.84 significant strikes per minute in her career, which should give her a high floor in this matchup. I’m not sold that she’ll come through with the victory, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see her put up 40 points in a loss.
For cash games, that’s more than enough to pay off the price and she’s definitely worth considering as a salary relief option this weekend.
Tournament Plays
1. Tony Ferguson, 8.6k
One of my favorite tournament fights to target on this slate is Tony Ferguson vs. Donald Cerrone, and i’m hopeful the winner comes through with a strong score.
My preferred option is Ferguson at 8.6k, and I definitely want exposure to him on DraftKings. He’s topped the 100 point mark in four of his last five fights, and is always a threat to score with his aggressive style, landing 5.51 significant strikes per minute.
Ferguson has an ITD line of +183 so he has potential to finish, and with a moderate price tag at 8.6k, I think he has a reasonable chance to meet value in a decision. Cerrone is a strong play as well at 7.6k but my expectation is that he will need an early finish, and he carries an ITD line of +245.
The overall pace of this fight should be high, which ultimately should yield a large number of exchanges, and that tends to convert well to DraftKings points. This is absolutely a fight you need exposure to in tournaments.
2. Bevon Lewis, 9k
Fighting Darren Stewart this week, I do have some tournament interest in Bevon Lewis at 9k.
He’s a bit expensive, but Stewart is not a talented fighter and I expect there to be a talent gap between him and Lewis, who is coming off a knockout loss to Uriah Hall. Prior to the knockout, Lewis was well ahead on the score cards and I think he’ll have a chance to hurt and finish Stewart in this fight.
Lewis carries an ITD line of +163 which is one of the better lines on the slate, and he’s earned a few knockouts in the past, so we know the potential is there. As always there are risks, but I’m more interested in the upside and I think Lewis has upside on this slate.
Fade of the Week
1. Katlyn Chookagian, 8.1k
I don’t normally dive this low for a fade of the week but there are very few options who make sense for me to write up in this section.
Katlyn Chookagian is simply a fighter I am not willing to target. She lands at a reasonable rate, but for 8.1k we are likely going to need 90 points or more for her to meet value in tournaments.
She is not a very effective striker, and holds an ITD line of +605 which suggests there is little to no upside here. Chookagian will be an outright fade for me in all formats.