UFC 239: Jones vs. Santos Quick Picks
Welcome back to another edition of the UFC Quick Picks!
UFC 239 is on tap this weekend which means major contests on DraftKings, including a $100K to first place Special that features a $323k prize pool. One of the biggest events of the year and the biggest prize pools, what more could we ask for?
If you want FULL BREAKDOWNS of every single fight on the card, projections, rankings and more, you can find that in the Premium Section here. We’ve also launched the MMA LINEUP BUILDER which you can access with my projections if you purchase the premium content.
Onto the fights!
Cash Game Plays
1. Jon Jones, 9.6k
There are few safer fighters in the sport than Jon Jones, and he will be the anchor of my cash game lineups this weekend at 9.6k.
Jones is a -650 favorite in this matchup against Thiago Santos, capable of landing strikes at a high rate and mixing in his takedowns. He’s also -245 to win inside the distance so his upside is very strong as well.
Outside of Amanda Nunes, there are very few safe fighters in the top tier of pricing, which means if I have the salary to pay up, I am going to pay all the way up to Jones. He holds the best mix of safety and upside on the slate and is a very strong cash game play at 9.6k.
2. Amanda Nunes, 9.1k
With two five-round fights on the slate, I think it’s ideal to get exposure to both in cash games, and that means Amanda Nunes is another very strong cash game option at 9.1k.
Nunes is still a very heavy favorite at -365, but with several other big favorites on the slate, we get Nunes at a legitimate discount. She’s landed 4.65 significant strikes per minute, as well as 1.8 takedowns per 15 minutes, and would have a considerable advantage if she were to earn top position against Holly Holm.
Nunes has also earned several quick finishes in her career, and holds a -105 ITD line in this spot. We’d likely pay up for Nunes in cash games if she were 9.5k, so I’ll take the discount and run with her in this format.
Tournament Plays
1. Luke Rockhold, 8.4k
Luke Rockhold will be making his Light Heavyweight debut Saturday against Jan Blachowicz, and I’m hopeful a change in weight class will be a positive look for him.
From a DraftKings perspective, this is a challenging slate, with no real middle range to speak of. Rockhold is priced at 8.4k, which on a traditional slate would hold a line value of approximately -150, but Rockhold is currently -235.
In addition, Rockhold has an ITD line of +115, which is one of the better numbers on the slate. The bottom line is he has finishing upside in this matchup, with line value on the price tag, and is a very decent tournament option because of it.
2. Jorge Masvidal, 7.5k
There aren’t many underdogs who stand out to me on this slate, but one I do like is Jorge Masvidal at 7.5k.
Masvidal is taking on Ben Askren, a high profile wrestler who is absolutely capable of taking Masvidal down and winning this fight. But Masvidal is a live dog in my opinion, and he’ll have a tremendous advantage while the fight plays out on the feet.
Not only will Masvidal have a chance to win, but he’ll have a legitimate chance to finish with an ITD line of +270, which is the best line for a fighter below the mid-range. For those reasons, I’ll definitely be grabbing some exposure to Masvidal in tournaments and I think he’s a strong play for his price.
Fade of the Week
1. Arnold Allen, 9k
Arnold Allen gets a fairly soft matchup this weekend against Gilbert Melendez, and he’s a heavy -335 favorite and expected to come through with the victory. But Allen has fought very cautiously in his early career and lands strikes at an extremely low rate.
Melendez hasn’t shown many durability issues in his career, and that’s why Allen is only +255 ITD, which is a big concern of mine. There are plenty of elite options in the top tier of pricing, including both Jones and Nunes, and I’d much rather pay up for them in this range.
Allen is simply too expensive for his typical offensive production, and I have very little interest in him on DraftKings this weekend.