UFC 269 Odds: Poirier vs. Oliveira Preview, Picks and Prediction
MMA betting analyst Liam Heslin previews UFC 269 odds for the main event between Dustin Poirier and Charlies Oliveira. Dive in deep with Liam as he delivers in-depth analysis, predictions and picks for Saturday, December 11, 2021.
UFC 269 Main Event Preview
If you are looking for the pinnacle of modern mixed martial arts, look no further than Saturday night’s main event. UFC 269 will feature a Lightweight Championship bout between Charles “Do Bronx” Oliveira and Dustin “The Diamond” Poirier. When Dustin Poirier debuted in the organization in January of 2011, Charles had already accrued a 2-1 record in the organization with eye-popping submission victories over Darren Elkins and Efrain Escudero. Both fighters are now 32 years of age, sitting somewhere near the middle distribution of their athletic prime and at the apex of their commercial popularity. Both men secured their legacies in the division with pivotal wins earlier this year. For Charles, he was able to secure UFC gold in his first opportunity, defeating Michael Chandler via KO2 (Left hook) to win the vacant UFC Lightweight Championship belt. Dustin Poirier dispatched Conor McGregor in back to back fights, securing a meaningful trilogy victory against his biggest rival. Poirier has held interim gold in the lightweight division, but he was turned away in his first crack at undisputed gold by former champion Khabib Nurmagomedov. Dustin’s hard fought victories over Conor McGregor vaulted him back into contention and inspired renewed confidence in Dustin among the betting public.
Dustin Poirier (-130)
Best Book: DraftKings
One interesting way to consider combat athletes over time is to evaluate public perception based on betting lines. For example, when Conor McGregor and Dustin Poirier first fought at UFC 178 in 2014, Conor McGregor went off as a -250 favorite (71.4% implied win probability) with the comeback on Dustin at +215 (31.8% implied win probability). At UFC 257 in January of this year, Conor went off as a -300 favorite (75% implied win probability) with the comeback on Dustin at +250 (28.6% implied win probability). By UFC 264, the line had flipped completely, with Dustin Poirier as a -132 favorite (56.9% implied win probability) with the comeback on Conor McGregor at +112 (47.2% implied win probability). Therefore, it is no surprise to see Dustin Poirier open as a favorite in this matchup despite the fact that Charles Oliveira is the reigning and defending champion. The public has slowly but surely come around to Dustin from a betting perspective. It may come as a surprise to hear that Dustin has been an underdog in 3 of his last 5 fights. Max Holloway, Conor McGregor (in their second fight), and Khabib Nurmagomedov all closed as fairly significant favorites over Dustin (avg. odds of +280 against those opponents, implied win percentage 26.32%).
Dustin has been returning moneyline backers an impressive 64.9% ROI over his last 18 UFC bouts. He has also wildly overperformed his odds expectation; over an 18 fight sample, he was an average odds of -115 (53.5% implied win probability) despite winning at an 83% clip over the same time period. As a favorite, Dustin has recorded a 10-1 record for a 39.32% ROI at an average odds of -196 (66.2% implied win probability). In addition, Dustin has been something of a knockout machine, turning in 10 KO’s in his 15 most recent UFC wins, including his two most recent wins over Conor McGregor. Dustin has dangerous hands, solid calf kicks, tricky footwork, strong reactive takedown entries and good clinch fighting skills. People backing Dustin Poirier in this matchup have a solid rationale. He has looked as good as ever lately, he is riding a wave of momentum, and he is the more proven five-round commodity.
Charlies Oliveira (+120)
Best Book: Caesars
The problem with trying to handicap this matchup is that both guys have continuously overperformed expectations over the course of their careers. For Charles Oliveira, that translates to a 15-5 record over his most recent 20 fight sample in the UFC. In that time, his average price on the money line was -119 (54.3% implied win probability) and he won at a 75% rate. Charles has been favored 12 times in the UFC, performing 10-2 in those fights for a respectable 21.8% ROI at an average odds of -202. However, where Charles shines the most is as a UFC underdog. Charles has recorded 5 victories as an underdog in the UFC to only 3 defeats. When Charles has been an underdog, he has gone off at an average odds of +182 (35.7% implied win probability) Charles has returned moneyline backers a 58% ROI on a 63% win rate. Backing Charles Oliveira to win fights inside the distance has been an extremely profitable prop category over the course of his career, 8 times cashing at plus money and 13 times overall in a 20 fight sample size. Another interesting note from a prop perspective is that Charles has cashed the KO/TKO prop in 3 of his last 5 outings at +900, +616, and +455 respectively. If you are interested in backing Charles, it is at least worth considering the aforementioned props, sitting at a market average of +204 (32.9% implied win probability) for Inside the Distance and +709 (12.4% implied win probability) for the KO/TKO. In addition, Charles has cashed the “to win via SUB” prop 10 times in his last 15 wins, 7 times at plus money odds. The market average price for Charles to win by SUB this weekend is +280 (26.3% implied win probability), but several books are still holding prices above +300 (25% implied win probability).
Charles is a muay thai striker with long, dangerous kicks, as well as heavy straight punches and tight hooks. It may come as a surprise to some that Charles Oliveira has a higher career knockdown rate than the Diamond (1.6% to 1%). However, Charles also has a slightly higher opponent knockdown rate than Dustin (.5% to .2%) so the power metrics may end up being a wash or a slight advantage for Charles. Dustin showed an adept calf kicking performance against his rival Conor McGregor, but over the larger data set, it is Oliveira who is the more active leg kicker, throwing about 17% of his strikes to the leg (compared to 11% for Poirier). Dustin’s biggest advantage on paper is his cardio, his composure, and his sheer striking volume. He attempts an absurd 15.76 strikes per minute spent at distance, compared to only 10.42 strikes per minute for Charles. It would be wise for Oliveira (in my humble opinion) to pursue takedowns early and often in this fight. Charles secures nearly 3 takedowns per 15 minutes at ~45% accuracy. Dustin on the other hand defends takedowns at ~59% clip, allowing 1.31 takedowns per 15 minutes. Dustin has fought a very high level of competition, but Charles represents the best grappler Dustin has ever faced save for Khabib Nurmagomedov. Primary striker Dan Hooker was able to take Poirier down 4 times in a 25-minute bout, securing 6 minutes of control time in the process. Khabib Nurmagomedov was able to secure 7 takedowns on 8 attempts for nearly nine minutes of control time.
Poirier vs. Oliveira Prediction and Picks
Prediction: Charles Oliveira defeats Dustin Poirier via Second Round Submission
I believe that Charles will be competitive on the feet. When heavy leather begins exchanging, I could see either fighter initiating the grappling. Ultimately I favor Charles because he is dangerous in every position, he is improving fight over fight, he has tremendous experience, and he is the plus money underdog as a sitting champion.
Bets:
I ended up playing Oliveira on the ML before the market started to close his ML price. If you are getting Charles +140 and up, I think he is worth considering on the ML. However, in order to get the best bang for your buck, you can play either athlete inside the distance. I will be playing Charles ITD at +210 but Poirier is likely to win this fight ITD and by KO if he is to win, so I would target that angle to get the favorite at plus-money.
God bless, good luck, and enjoy these fights! I think we are in for an absolute TREAT at lightweight.
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