UFC 271 Preview: Adesanya vs. Whittaker Odds, Picks and Prediction
MMA betting analyst Liam Heslin previews UFC Vegas 271 odds and breaks down everything you need to know to make your Adesanya vs. Whittaker picks.
Saturday night’s UFC pay-per-view attraction will feature a fascinating rematch in the UFC’s middleweight division. The matchup pits former champion Robert “The Reaper” Whittaker against one of the company’s biggest stars, Undisputed UFC Middleweight Champion Israel “The Last Stylebender” Adesanya.
Adesanya is a practiced and accomplished kickboxer who has made a significant mark on the world of mixed martial arts in his short championship run. He captured the title from Robert Whittaker in devastating fashion, dispatching him in the second round with a furious hooking combination that sent Whittaker to the canvas in October of 2019 and has hardly looked back since. His only setback came in the light heavyweight division, where Adesanya’s title aspirations were dashed by the savvy veteran and former undisputed champion Jan Blachowicz (of “legendary Polish power” fame).
Outside of that defeat, Adesanya has rattled off three title defenses, including two unanimous decision victories and a round two rout of Paulo Costa (TKO due to strikes). Meanwhile, Robert Whittaker has been hard at work securing his position in this title fight, besting three solid contenders in Cannonier, Gastelum, and Darren Till en route to his title rematch.
UFC 271 Odds: Adesanya (-284) vs. Whittaker (+230)
There are several strong reasons to believe that Whittaker can make a better account of himself in this fight.
Firstly, Rob is the younger athlete by more than a year, so the chances of him making a more significant physical regression than Adesanya is hard to imagine. Moreover, Rob has a more well-rounded game and a greater diversity of potential win conditions. Adesanya is obviously a very talented fighter and can still make changes and adaptations to his game plan for this fight.
However, the bulk of the relevant adjustments that can be made in this matchup will be made on the Whittaker side, as his pressure forward style and blitz attacks were routinely identified, absorbed, and returned by Adesanya in an efficient and devastating fashion. It will be incumbent on Whittaker to draw Adesanya into him at points in this fight, where he can try to create more effective countering opportunities than the futile blitz attacks that more often found air or shoulder than the intended target. In addition, Adesanya is more comfortable on the back foot. When forced to lead, Izzy has often had low volume staring matches with people (think Yoel Romero) that are within very narrow margins of the scoring criteria. I think ambiguity and a reduction of violent collisions could benefit Rob tremendously.
What happened last time
Rewatching the first fight, several things become apparent quickly. Adesanya is a much longer, rangier fighter than Whittaker, so Whittaker is the athlete constantly trying to close the distance. When they are operating at kicking range, the fight is actually competitive. It was Adesanya’s domination in the extended boxing exchanges that got Whittaker in trouble. I believe that Whittaker has been self reflective of his flaws in his recent fights and done his best to correct them. The notable exception is that Whittaker was dropped early in his bout against Darren Till with a well-timed counter elbow on a predictable blitz attack from Rob. However, with that exchange aside, Whittaker has been much more disciplined in his recent bouts about picking his shots, shortening up the combinations, damaging the lead leg of his opponent, and introducing the threat of the takedown. 65% of Whittaker’s takedown attempts in the UFC have come in his last three bouts, and he was able to secure 6 takedowns on 19 attempts (not counting a beautiful outside trip that took down Cannonier before a rapid recovery back to his feet). Whittaker has demonstrated several different options for creating takedown offense, including the head outside single, the knee pick, and the body lock. When I describe multiple potential win conditions for Whittaker, I think about his striking volume, his superior cage control metrics, his underrated power, and his 9 and 2 record in fights that go the distance.
I have heaped what I believe is due praise on Robert Whittaker, but I must also acknowledge Israel Adesanya’s greatness. At 32 years of age, Israel has accrued an impressive 21-1 record in mixed martial arts. Adesanya is 10-1 in the UFC, and has closed as a betting favorite in every fight, including a market average of -250 (71% implied) against Jan Blachowicz. Adesanya also won a split decision over Marvin Vettori in 2018 as a -250 favorite and won a controversial decision over 42 year old Yoel Romero as a -285 (74% implied) for whatever that is worth. If you are an Adesanya backer, you can rest easy knowing that he has outperformed his historical odds. Over 11 fights, he has been available at an average price of -205 (67% implied) with a 91% win rate, netting a 38.4% ROI.
Whittaker backers, however, can rest assured that they have made a great bet. In fifteen UFC bouts, Robert Whittaker has been available at an average money line price of -113 (53.1%) despite accruing a 12-3 record for an 80% win rate. This means that Whittaker has been mispriced by ~25% over the course of his UFC run. This is a slightly larger gap than the mispricing of Adesanya as a favorite. In addition, Whittaker has rewarded his backers at the window with a 61.8% overall ROI. As a UFC underdog, Whittaker is a baffling 6-2 (75% win rate) for an 87.6% ROI. That kind of ROI is very uncommon, even for highly productive underdogs.
Stylistically, this is a brutally tough matchup for Robert Whittaker. Adesenya has clever, well trained, long range weapons including his high kicks from both stances, his tepe kicks to the body, his inside and outside low kicking game, his open stance body kicks, his jab, and his devastating counter hooks. Whittaker’s old school approach of tactical marauding, lead hand blitzes, and step up high kicks will not be enough to get the job done here. Whittaker will need to fight to the best of his abilities and build out a better game plan to find success in this fight. I believe that if this fight ends inside the distance, it will continue to favor Israel Adesanya, as he has the superior power metrics (twice the KD rate of Whittaker) and superior chin metrics (never been knocked down in the UFC, Rob has been knocked down six times in the UFC). However, if this fight sees the score cards, I believe it will be anybody’s fight, as Adesanya has developed into a medium volume leg kick heavy striker. Many of the rounds he wins are by relatively thin margins. If Rob can keep himself out of danger, limit the number of exchanges, introduce the threat of wrestling at space, and control Adesanya in the clinch, he can win this decision and win this fight.
UFC 271 Main Event Pick
The Pick: Israel Adesanya TKO4
Rob will have an uphill battle in this fight, and greater than 50% of the time, I expect that he will fall short. I think Adesanya deserves the distinction of betting favorite in this matchup. However, at +240, Robert Whittaker is clearly the betting side in my opinion. He is a tremendous underdog historically, his composure looks superior heading into this matchup, and he has rebuilt his confidence from the ground up. It is disrespectful in my opinion to price Robert Whittaker, a perennial P4P talent, at 29.4% implied in a UFC bout. I will be betting small on Bobby Knuckles and hoping that he can right the ship, setting up a tremendous rubber match between these two middleweight standouts down the road.
The Bets:
- Robert Whittaker ML +240 (Bet365)
- Whittaker wins via DEC +500 (FanDuel)
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