UFC Austin Preview: Kattar vs. Emmett Odds, Picks and Prediction
MMA betting analyst Liam Heslin previews UFC Austin odds and breaks down everything you need to know to make your picks and predictions. Use our PrizePicks promo code for a $100 bonus on UFC props tonight!
UFC Austin: Kattar vs. Emmett Preview
This is a fight that brought a smile to my face when it was announced. Calvin Kattar was left for dead by MMA fans after absorbing a hellacious beating from former divisional Kingpin Max “Blessed” Holloway in a UFC on ABC main event to kick of 2021. Holloway landed a baffling (and record setting) 445 significant strikes over the course of 25 minutes, and many observers felt Kattar would never be the same fighter again. Flash forward one year later (from 1/16/2021 to 1/15/2022) and Calvin Kattar is back in a main event feature, this time to put over a young up and coming title challenger named Giga Chikadze. Chikadze was a former Glory Kickboxer, so the idea that a largely boxing centric fighter like Calvin Kattar would be able to defeat him felt like blasphemy.
If you have been reading my work since that time, you know we cashed in bigly on the +200 (33.3%) line besides Calvin Kattar’s name as he gave the Georgian Chikadze the proverbial “tour of the octagon” and beat him from pillar to post over five rounds, recording a knock down, two takedowns, and a submission attempt. Kattar re asserted himself in the top ten at featherweight with a decisive victory and reminded fans that he is a capable fighter who is sharpening all his tools in between contests. In many ways, both of these fighters represent the highest level of grit and determination. For Kattar, it shone through in his ability to quiet the naysayers and return the favor he was given by Max to another young hungry up and comer. For Emmett, it has been demonstrated by his desire to keep pushing his way up the contendership ranks at 37 years old to try to secure a title shot that has eluded him due to injuries, inactivity, and unfortunate circumstances (i.e. losing a critical contendership fight with Jeremy Stephens).
Josh Emmett’s true metal and grit was best on display against Shane Burgos, a violent New York marauder who pursues violence with a shocking zeal and enthusiasm. Emmett endured and kept pace with Burgos’ 129 significant strikes, landing 128 of his own and with more impact on each blow. Emmett suffered several injuries to his knee and leg from a structural standpoint; he tore his ACL completely, ruptured his Baker’s cyst, fractured his femur, and partially tore his MCL. Emmett put it best when he said, “I’m willing to go through hell and suffer any amount of pain to get my hand raised.”
Emmett proved his point once again, aggressively rehabbing surgeries and returning to the featherweight division with a clean, hard fought win over perennial tough out Dan “50K” Ige. This opportunity may represent Emeett’s final chance to assert himself in the top five at featherweight.
Emmett is the 7th ranked featherweight in the world at 37 years of age, and 34 year old Calvin Kattar (ranked #4) may represent his most beatable opponent in the top five. Kattar comes from a wrestling background but he has buttered his bread in professional mixed martial arts as a powerful and clever volume boxer with slick counter strikes (think Burgos uppercut KO) and a thudding series of elbows and overhands that land with shocking authority (think Stephens KO).
That being said, Kattar is only attempting 13 strike attempts per minute while facing 16 strikes from his opponents on the return. He is landing at a solid clip ~5.2 strikes landed per minute, but he is absorbing 7.64 strikes on the comeback. Against a puncher with power like Josh Emmett, you do not want to be absorbing over strikes per minute. To be clear, Kattar has only had three five round UFC main events (2-1) and one was a historic beating from Max Holloway, so we don’t want to overread these stats. However, Holloway doesn’t have huge punch power like Josh Emmett, so theoretically Emmett would need fewer opportunities to create meaningful damage.
As for Josh Emmett, he is throwing at a much more measured pace, attempting about 11 strikes per minute while facing a similar amount in return. It is important to note that massive power punches like Emmett have a way of limiting volume from their opponents at times, as the prospect of getting hit with a counter is too risky to enter the pocket on a whim. Emmett is landing ~4.3 strikes per minute (.9 less than Kattar) and absorbing only 4.1 (almost 3.5 fewer strikes than Calvin, granted Emmett never seen five rounds) significant strikes. Emmett boasts a 62.9% significant strike defense, an extremely impressive figure especially compared with a more tepid 52.6% defense from Calvin Kattar (10.3% adv. Emmett).
If there is to be wrestling and grappling in this matchup, I would have to favor Emmett to be the one to initiate. Wisely Kattar attempted a TD in the first round against kickboxer Giga Chikadze, but he has been very hesitant to pursue TD’s overall in the UFC, securing only five takedowns in 10 appearances. Kattar has only ever taken down one opponent that is shorter than he is (5’11” vs. 5’7” Dan Ige) and Ige has given up 21 takedowns in a 13 fights sample size so I don’t read much into that.
Emmett is attempting nearly a full takedown more than Kattar per fifteen minutes (2.63 vs. 1.74) and his TD accuracy of 47.6% is far superior compared with a 29.4% accuracy rate for Calvin. Emmett is a potent offensive wrestler with very little control time to show for it (8.2%) but Kattar has half that control rate (4%) so it may be a wash. As for defensive grappling chops, here is where Kattar reasserts himself. Kattar has only conceded 1.5% of his fight time to his opponent’s control, compared to 3.7% for Josh Emmett (two of the lowest opp. Control rates on the card). Emmett has a very tepid 58.3% takedown defense rate. Kattar boasts a very impressive 89.5% takedown defense rate.
What Do The Odds Say?
Kattar opened for this fight a -170 favorite implying he has about a 63% chance of winning the contest. Emmett opened in the +150 range, indicating that he has about a 40% chance of winning. Quickly after opening the Kattar line began taking steam, and he currently sits a market average of -236 (70.2% implied), meaning the market has moved in his direction about 7% since opening. Emmett on the other hand has dropped from a 40% implied win probability to a 34.3% win probability based on market activity.
I understand Kattar being favored in this spot because he has fought a higher level of competition, he has secured more big wins in the UFC, and he has been fighting regularly in five round main events since the summer of 2020. However, the idea of laying $235 to win $100 on Kattar is not nearly as appealing when he is standing across from a murderous puncher with fight ending intentions. If Kattar is smart, he will mix up his game, try to force Emmett to pursue, and keep him on the end of a long, lancing jab. If he gets overconfident and decides to pocket brawl as he has done in the past, he may need the smelling salts to come to.
When you ask yourself, why do people want to back Calvin Kattar this weekend? Two obvious answer begin to emerge. Firstly, they may have bet Giga Chikadze in his last bout and now feel that Calvin Kattar is better than they gave him credit for and therefore worthy of respect at the betting window. Secondly, they may have looked at his historical odds performance and seen that Kattar has been a solid, bankable investment in the UFC. If you flat bet Calvin Kattar every time he fought in the UFC, you would have gone 7-3 (70% win rate at average odds of +123), cashing in massively when Kattar was an underdog (3-2 at average odds of +288) and handsomely when Kattar was favored (4-1 at an average odds of -177). This means that in his current role as betting favorite, Kattar has rewarded his backers to the tune of a 19.4% ROI as a favorite.
The problem I have with betting Calvin Kattar in this spot has to do more so with his opponent than with Kattar himself. Emmett has been the more bankable commodity of the two over a 10 fight sample size. Emmett is 8-2 (80%) in the UFC at an average odds of 103 (49.3%), meaning Emmett has outperformed his odds expectation by 30 percent. Strictly as an underdog, Emmett has turned in a 5-1 record for an 83% win rate and a 121.67% ROI at an average odds of +154. Emmett has turned away the likes of Shane Burgos, Mirsad Bektic, Michael Johnson, and Ricardo Lamas as an underdog priced to win less than 40% of the time. Now he is being priced to win 33.33% of the time against a 7-3 UFC fighter who gets hit nearly 8 times per minutes? Instinctually that seems off to me upon further analysis.
Prediction: Kattar to win via SDEC
I ultimately favor Calvin Kattar to win this fight because of his physical advantages; Kattar is 3 years younger, 5” taller, and has a 2” advantage in reach. He has a potent, effective, prodding jab that pushes opponents backwards, and he has shown that he can make adjustments mid fight to give himself a better chance to win. However, the idea of laying 70% on Kattar to get it done is not appealing to me. Kattar has only been in this specific odds range twice against Jeremy Stephens and Dan Ige. Ige took a round off him and made it a competitive fight over five rounds, and Stephens had created plenty of damage on Kattar’s face before Kattar landed the finishing blow with a nasty elbow. I expect these guys to go to war and for the tough, gritty, heavy handed Emmett to create moments of wobble or hesitation for Mr. Kattar, but if he is unable to become the first man to stop Kattar with strikes, he may end up losing a razor thin decision. Both of these guys deserve a big opportunity at featherweight; Sunday we will wake up with either a shiny new featherweight contender in Josh Emmett, or a rebirthed Calvin Kattar once again with momentum on his side. Either way, this should be an amazing scrap between two elite featherweights.
Best Bet: Josh Emmett +200 Moneyline
This is not my favorite fight from a betting perspective, but I do feel it is a clear dog or pass situation. If you want to bet a money line on this fight, I would take the +200 on the Emmett side personally. However, I am not sold on the Emmett victory, just that I don’t want to be laying huge indications on fun fighters like Calvin Kattar who engage in the pocket and leave so much of their fighting to chance. Emmett is the kind of fighter you can always justify playing as a dog because his power keeps him live throughout the duration and his toughness and will to win are hard to quantify.
PICK: 0.5u Josh Emmett +200, Caesars Sportsbook
UFC Prop Pick: Over 3.5 Rounds
Over 3.5 Rounds. These guys both have tremendous power but they also have insane heart, toughness, durability, and will. I find it hard to imagine either one of these guys finds a way out unless their lights get shut off.
Image Credit: Imagn