UFC Denver: Shevchenko vs. Pena Quick Picks
Welcome to UFC Denver Quick Picks and boy I am exhausted from writing this..at elevation…(laughs to self).
All the fights will be at elevation this week meaning fighters will likely get more tired than normal, so cardio is a huge issue. If you know of fighters training at altitude, or fighters who’ve shown poor cardio in the past, that’s definitely something to note.
Myself and gravycakes did a full UFC Denver Podcast on RotoGrinders this week, which you can watch here:
Full written breakdowns of every fight, along with Expert Rankings and Ownership Projections are LIVE in the MMA Premium section, which you can find here.
Follow me on Twitter at BrettAppley and at DailyFanMMA !
Onto the fights!
Cash Game Plays
1. Francis Ngannou, $9,600
There are certainly arguments you can make as to why Francis Ngannou isn’t a must-play in cash games, but I like him this week. That doesn’t mean his floor is super high and it doesn’t mean he can’t lose, but with all the uncertainty this card brings, I think targeting the heavy favorites is a smart play.
Ngannou comes in at -400 this week, and only one other fighter is favored above -200. With all the close fights, I’m going to do my best to plug in the one clear favorite on this card. He also carries an ITD prop of -260, which are better odds than any other fighter has to win.
His opponent Andrei Arlovski is more experienced and talented than any other fighter Ngannou has faced, but he may also be much less durable. Arlovski has been TKO’d nine times in his career and four times in his last eight fights, and Ngannou brings nothing but power. If he connects once early, it should be lights out for Arlovski.
2. Li Jingliang, $8,100
Normally I’d give you a fighter in the main event with one of these picks, and this doesn’t mean I don’t like them for cash. I really like both Valentina Shevchenko and Julianna Pena for cash, but I figured I’d go a little less obvious with this pick.
Li Jingliang comes in as a -155 favorite, with an ITD prop of +190, but he’s only priced at 8.1k. That makes him a clear value in my mind and I think he’s worth targeting in cash. Jingliang is fighting Bobby Nash who is making his UFC debut, and I think Jingliang is the better fighter pretty much everywhere.
He’s also more experienced and has fought tougher competition, so I don’t expect Nash to give him a ton of trouble. Jingliang should be priced around 8.7k, so I’m going to take the $600 of value and run with it.
Tournament Plays
1. Marcos Rogerio de Lima, $9,100
The big shiny object on this card is Francis Ngannou, who is massively likely to win and finish, but Ngannou is expensive. Even if he gets that finish, he’ll need to contend with all the fighters around him, and for the huge ownership I expect on Ngannou, I think pivoting with some lineups makes for a smart play.
One of my favorite pivots is directly below him to Marcos Rogerio de Lima for 9.1k. Lima is a -175 favorite with an ITD prop of -135. I think there’s a good chance that he stops his opponent, Jeremy Kimball, early in this fight.
Lima is known as a guy who finishes or gets finished, so there’s obvious risk to him. He was submitted quickly in his last fight, and if he doesn’t finish quickly, I can see Kimball taking over. But that should only lower the ownership, and I think may will skip right past him and hit Ngannou, or target an Alvey or Cerrone below.
Lima is the most likely fighter to finish in the first round outside of Ngannou, but I don’t think his ownership will match that upside. He’s an explosive fighter, and he’s definitely worth a look in GPPs.
2. Jordan Johnson, $8,600
Jordan Johnson is making his UFC debut against Luis Henrique da Silva, who you might remember from fighting Paul Craig a handful of weeks ago. I was all over Silva in that fight, and he let me down, but this is an interesting rebound.
The big questions with Henrique is can he wade through the beating and come back. He did that in his first two fights and earned finishes, but he wasn’t really in the fight against Craig. Now he gets a fighter in Johnson who is somewhere in between the skill level of Silva’s past opponents. I don’t think he’s that great personally, but Vegas loves him in this spot.
Johnson is a -220 favorite with a +126 line to win inside the distance, but he’s only priced at 8.6k. For the second heaviest favorite and fourth most likely to finish, his price interests me. I also don’t think he’ll be that popular based on the fact that it’s his debut, and people have seen his opponent do well.
The key for Johnson in this fight is gassing out Silva, which only took a few minutes last fight. With this fight taking place at altitude, it’s likely he gasses as quickly or even quicker than last time around, and Johnson will look to grind on him and get a finish. I’m willing to side with Vegas on this one and target Johnson in tournaments.
Fade of the Week
1. Donald Cerrone, $8,900
This is a pretty easy call for me, even though fading Donald Cerrone has screwed me in the past. For starters, I think he’s going to be popular, maybe not 40+ percent popular but I think he’ll be higher than 30 percent. He’s always popular, regardless of the matchup, and he’s the biggest name on this card.
Second, his matchup with Jorge Masvidal is a tough one from a fantasy perspective. Masvidal hasn’t been finished since 2009, and he’s one of the most durable fighters in the UFC. It’s a very close fight overall and I could definitely see Masvidal winning.
Most importantly, Cerrone is priced at 8.9k, which essentially means he needs 100+ points OR several high priced fighters to lose, and I’m willing to bet that does not happen. He most likely needs to outscore Ngannou, Lima, Alvey and Spicely to be on a winning tournament lineup, and that’s a tough route. I love watching Cowboy and I wouldn’t be shocked if he performs well, but based on his odds to finish and the price, I’ll be fading him this week.