UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs. Garbrandt Beat Down
Welcome back to another edition of the UFC Beat Down! We are riding hot over the last month and hopefully we can continue it with another awesome card this weekend.
The one major key I noticed when breaking down this card is that there are A LOT of fighters with granite chins who will probably end up in a striking battle. Even though the matchups look tasty on the outside, be careful about investing heavily against fighters who’ve never been knocked out in 30 or 40 fights. It’s just not that likely that this time will be the first.
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Onto the fights!
MAIN CARD
Thomas Almeida vs. Cody Garbrandt
Fight Odds: Almeida -164, Garbrandt +145
Odds to finish: -485
Salaries: Almeida 10.2k, Garbrandt 9.2k
Weight Class: 135
Ohhhhh boy this is an awesome fight!
Thomas Almeida and Cody Garbrandt are two of my favorite prospects and I think either can make a huge push in this division. Almeida comes in with a 21-0 record and 16 TKOs, which says enough in itself. He’s a vicious striker with some of the best combinations at 135 and it’s really hard for most fighters to wade through that punishment. If you can avoid the big shots, Almeida leaves opportunities to get hit because he’s so aggressive.
He was rocked and hit against Brad Pickett and I definitely think Garbrandt is capable of landing heavy shots. Will it be enough to put Almeida out? I’m not positive either way but it’s definitely a possibility. Almeida also has a potential weakness in his ground game which Garbrandt should be able to expose if he chooses. Garbrandt is definitely the better wrestler and even though he likes to keep the fight standing, I think he can use that wrestling in an offensive manner to get the fight down where Almeida doesn’t have his biggest advantages.
Those are enough tools for me to consider playing Garbrandt, especially at the price. I put him in my video and I still think he’s a great value play.
I do, however, think Almeida is a great play at his price as well, and he’s obviously more than capable of winning. The striking volume alone in a five round fight would be enough for me to target him, but his finishing potential is also pretty high. I haven’t seen Garbrandt hurt much on the feet, but it’s definitely possible.
It will be interesting to see how these two fair if the fight lasts more than three rounds because cardio will obviously play a role and I’m not sure Almeida can keep up the output for 25 minutes. From a DFS perspective, target both fighters in all formats because we’ll most likely see the winner on the top GPP lineups. Both provide a ton of safety as well in cash games.
Fight Prediction: Almeida by Decision
Renan Barao vs. Jeremy Stephens
Fight Odds: Barao -190, Stephens +165
Odds to finish: -125
Salaries: Barao 10.1k, Stephens 9.3k
Weight Class: 145
I’m going to play devil’s advocate here for a bit and dive deeper into Renan Barao’s record; let’s say we have never seen him fight before and all we have to look at is his record. He was knocked out twice by TJ Dillashaw, and in between he beat Mitch Gagnon. Before that, he had a streak of wins against Urijah Faber x2, Eddie Wineland, Michael McDonald, Scott Jorgensen and Brad Pickett.
Those are some good wins, but it honestly doesn’t jump off the page at me as THAT impressive. Now if we factor in who Barao is and try analyzing some of those fights, his wins are good, but is he really as elite as we’ve perceived?
Barao clearly was not on the level of Dillashaw, he got smoked out twice and suffered a lot of damage. In the fight against Gagnon he did not look great, and that scares me going into this fight against Jeremy Stephens.
Stephens is pretty much who we think he is at this time in his career. He’s tough as nails, and he can beat most of the division outside of the top few. He packs a ton of power in his strikes and can put out pretty much anyone.
The one interesting x factor is that Barao is moving up for 135 to 145, so he won’t be as depleted, but he probably won’t be as big for the weight class. It’s hard to say exactly how that will affect him, but we can still try and analyze.
Barao is the better overall striker in this match, he has some vicious kicks and knock out power when he’s aggressive. He’s pretty hittable and he doesn’t take a punch well. He doesn’t throw with a ton of volume, but that’s OK. If the fight stays standing here and we assume nobody gets knocked out, I think Barao can out point Stephens to a decision. I also think it’s possible that Stephens can outpoint Barao if Barao comes in slow like he did against Gagnon.
Even though the odds don’t suggest it, I think Stephens is the more likely of the two to finish, if there is a finish. Stephens is just really tough and has only been knocked out once in 36 fights. We know Stephens hits hard and we know Barao hasn’t taken a punch well, so it wouldn’t shock me if Stephens drops Barao and finishes him.
From a DFS perspective, I don’t really like Barao at his price. I think there’s too many risks, combined with the fact that I don’t see a finish from him, and combined with the likelihood that his ownership level will be high due to name value. I’d much rather drop down to Stephens and take the chance on him earning a finish or decision for that price.
Fight Prediction: Stephens by TKO, RD 2
Tarec Saffiedine vs. Rick Story
Fight Odds: Saffiedine -125, Story +105
Odds to finish: +200
Salaries: Saffiedine 9.7k, Story 9.7k
Weight Class: 170
At first I thought there might be value in this fight between Tarec Saffiedine and Rick Story, but now I’m not so sure. For one, this fight is essentially dead even according to the odds, so it’s hard to have a strong lean either way. Vegas also has this fight as -280 to go over 2.5 rounds, which is extremely high. Story as the underdog is +330 to win inside the distance and Saffiedine is +650, and those are not good numbers.
My original thought is that Saffiedine should definitely be the better striker, and he can score 60 or so significant strikes or pick Story apart in a decision, but I’m not sure that’s worth investing in heavily if his odds to finish are so low. He’s only won by TKO once in his career, and Story has never been knocked out.
Story is a heavy dude and will probably try to push Saffiedine into the cage, and unless he knocks Saffiedine clean out, I don’t see him earning a finish. Story also hasn’t fought since 2014 so that carries additional risk.
There just isn’t enough upside here to target heavily.
Fight Prediction: Saffiedine by Decision
Jorge Masvidal vs. Lorenz Larkin
Fight Odds: Larkin -120, Masvidal +100
Odds to finish: +180
Salaries: Larkin 9.8k, Masvidal 9.6k
Weight Class: 170
This is an awesome matchup that should push either Jorge Masvidal or Lorenz Larkin closer to the title in the 170 lb. division. I don’t love it’s fantasy prospects though.
To start, Jorge Masvidal’s prop to win inside the distance is +450 and Larkin’s prop is +405. That really does not appeal to me and concerns me on how much upside there is. Just like the fight below this one, I expect it to play out primarily on the feet, which means there will be an opportunity for big points.
However, Masvidal has only been knocked out once in 39 pro fights and I’m not going to rely on Larkin being No. 2. Larkin has also shown a solid chin so I’m not expecting a finish on either side.
Masvidal should be the more technical striker in this fight but I expect Larkin to be more aggressive and land at a higher rate. I think either are in play if you need someone in this price range, but I like Masvidal slightly better because I think he’s the better fighter. It’s a close fight though, so I’ll probably go low on exposure and enjoy the fight as a fan.
Fight Prediction: Masvidal by Decision
Chris Camozzi vs. Vitor Miranda
Fight Odds: Miranda -200, Camozzi +170
Odds to finish: +115
Salaries: Miranda 10.5k, Camozzi 8.9k
Weight Class: 185
I’m mildly interested in both sides of this fight between Chris Camozzi and Vitor Miranda. I’ve been targeting Miranda for a while in DFS and he’s come through with some knockouts, and he has the opportunity to the do the same in this matchup.
What I like best about this matchup is that it should stay on the feet, which means there should be an opportunity for one or both to put up a solid score with a win. I think Miranda is the better striker here and probably more likely to earn a finish, but Camozzi is super tough and in 33 pro fights, he’s never been knocked out. That’s a theme on this card.
So can Miranda be the first to knock out Camozzi? Maybeee but I don’t think it’s a great idea to assume that will happen. What’s interesting is that Miranda only has a +165 prop to win inside distance, while Camozzi has a +755 prop to win inside the distance. That’s tough to analyze because on one hand I don’t want to target the guy who’s opponent has never been knocked out, but I don’t want to target the guy with a +755 finish prop either..
The good thing here is that both fighters land above four significant strikes per minute so this could be a high scoring affair even in a decision. Camozzi has the ability to grind opponents down and I think he could potentially win the latter rounds and a take a decision. I’ll have a sprinkle of both sides of this fight, but it’s not my top fight to target.
Fight Prediction: Miranda by Decision
Josh Burkman vs. Paul Felder
Fight Odds: Felder -320, Burkman +260
Odds to finish: +130
Salaries: Felder 10.8k, Burkman 8.6k
Weight Class: 155
This fight is similar to Saffiedine/Story in the sense that it seems like a fight with upside on the surface, but when you dig a little deeper, I’m not so sure. Felder is a striker and his game is boxing for the most part. He’s going to ride or die on how he fares on the feet.
He’s looked decent in his short UFC career, he has power and good technique, but he’s still a little raw and has a tendency to strike at a very low output. I don’t really consider him for cash games anymore because I can’t trust that he’ll land enough significant strikes in a decision if the fight rolls that way.
Felder is pricy in this fight so I’d definitely be looking for a finish from him, but the problem is that Burkman has only been TKOd once in 40 professional fights. Again, I’m not sure that’s something I want to heavily invest in and hope Felder can pull off a quick finish.
Burkman is a weird fighter himself because he has a seemingly low fight IQ. He’s decent everywhere but he’s a better wrestler grappler and that’s his best chance to win this fight. With that said, he’ll probably look to strike, and it’s not out of the the realm of possibility that he can win a decision.
I’d almost rather play Burkman at his price than Felder, but I’m not high on this fight in general because I think there’s a relatively low ceiling on it.
Fight Prediction: Felder by Decision
UNDERCARD
Sara McMann vs. Jessica Eye
Fight Odds: McMann -160, Eye +140
Odds to finish: +180
Salaries: McMann 9.9k, Eye 9.5k
Weight Class: 135
I’m not too high on this fight between Sara McMann and Jessica Eye from a fantasy perspective. Both fighters are somewhat second-tier in the 135 lb. division and I expect this bout to be fairly close, but it’s likely to a low-scoring affair.
McMann is an elite wrestler and a decent boxer but she’s not very powerful and she’s not a finisher. She’s landed more than 5 takedowns on average during her UFC span and she’s smothering from top, but that unfortunately doesn’t score many points which makes it a risk to target her.
Eye is the better striker in this fight and she’ll want to keep it standing where she should have the advantage. McMann was roughed up in here last fight against Amanda Nunes but I don’t think Eye strikes on a Nunes level and even if she’s winning on the feet, I don’t expect a finish. More than likely, McMann will look to use her grappling advantage and get the fight on the mat.
In her last fight against Julianna Pena, Eye was taken down three times and it could have been more. I really don’t think McMann will struggle that much to get her down, and that really turns me off completely on this fight. Eye is good enough on the ground to survive and defend, and McMann isn’t good enough to get a finish from top (in my opinion).
Both fighters are affordable on DraftKings but the upside just isn’t there in this matchup for me to invest in tournaments, and I don’t think has a high enough floor to target in cash.
Fight Prediction: McMann by Decision
Abel Trujillo vs. Jordan Rinaldi
Fight Odds: Trujillo -320, Rinaldi +260
Odds to finish: -190
Salaries: Trujillo 11.2k, Rinaldi 8.2k
Weight Class: 155
I usually target Abel Trujillo fights because Trujillo is a finisher, but he has some holes in his game that allow his opponents the same opportunity to finish fights. Trujillo gets UFC newcomer Jordan Rinaldi on short notice in this bout, and on paper you have to give Trujillo the clear edge.
Trujillo is a good striker with powerful hands, and he’s shown decent offensive wrestling and grappling at times. The biggest flaw in Trujillo’s game has been that his cardio, and he’s been known to gas after a round or so. In his last fight against Tony Sims, Trujillo was much less aggressive and paced himself well, but that could have been because he was concerned with the high-level striking game of Sims.
In this matchup against Rinaldi, I don’t think he’s going to be as tentative. Rinaldi doesn’t offer much on the feet and while the fight stays standing, I have to give the advantage to Trujillo, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see him get an early knockout. Rinaldi’s best skills are on the ground, and he’s won by submission seven times in his 12 pro victories.
In theory, I think it’s possible that Rinaldi could hold off Trujillo early and take advantage in rounds two and three once he’s tired, and get Trujillo to the ground and sub him. For the price, I think he’s worth a look in tournaments, but I wouldn’t go heavy on him.
Trujillo is much more athletic and powerful, and he comes in on a full training camp, and I think he’s a great upside play this weekend. I’m always hesitant to roster him in cash games because he doesn’t have the highest floor, but this is a fight he should win and probably get the finish.
Fight Prediction: Trujillo by TKO, RD 1
Jake Collier vs. Alberto Uda
Fight Odds: Uda -125, Collier +105
Odds to finish: -180
Salaries: Uda 10.3k, Collier 9.1k
Weight Class: 185
I actively came into analyzing this fight with the assumption I’d be picking Alberto Uda confidently in his UFC debut over Jake Collier but wow was I unimpressed with Uda.
Part of it is probably that I still remember taking Collier in cash games in his last fight against Dongi Yang and he looked pretty mediocre, made some dumb decisions and got TKOd in the second round. That hurt.
But after re-watching that fight, I still like Collier’s range striking game. He’s aggressive at least, and pretty powerful, even if he’s not the most technical fighter. Uda is an average striker himself but at range, he’s really poor. He uses some decent kicks but his punches are not good and he leaves his chin wide open. I’ve seen him get smacked pretty hard and he seems to take a punch well, but he’s definitely hittable.
If the fight stays standing, I have to give the advantage to Collier even though his fight IQ is low and he’s been knocked out in the past. Uda really excels in the clinch and sure, if he can force the clinch he’ll be able to land some heavy shots, but it’s to picture that.
Furthermore, Uda supposedly has high-level jiu-jitsu and that’s fine, but I think where he excels is off his back, and I’m never going to rely on that. Collier is a decent grappler and has the better wrestling, and even though he’ll probably make mistakes on the ground, I trust him enough to fight off some submissions.
For me, I think Collier is one of the better values on the card, even if he’s not “safe.” Uda has never lost so he’s obviously never been knocked out, but he leaves his chin so wide open that I really think Collier has the potential to land heavy shots and put him out. Vegas has Collier as only a +105 dog, which is really good for the price, so that adds more to his value.
I think Uda is worth a shot in tournaments because he’s finished a lot of opponents, and Collier can definitely be finished, but I’d much rather play Collier in this fight.
Fight Prediction: Collier by TKO, RD 1
Erik Koch vs. Shane Campbell
Fight Odds: Campbell -165, Koch +145
Odds to finish: -115
Salaries: Campbell 10k, Koch 9.4k
Weight Class: 155
This is a really sneaky fight to target in my opinion, and I think both Erik Koch and Shane Campbell will be pretty low owned.
The big red flag on Koch is that he hasn’t fought since May 2014, and he’s lost three of his last four, including two by knockout. In his other fight against Dustin Poirier, he got hit really hard and probably should have been knocked out as well.
Campbell has lost two of three in the UFC and he always seems to get into a firefight, but I actually think he’s a pretty well-rounded fighter and I’m excited to see what he’ll bring to the table. He’s a good muay-thai striker with power and a high output, but he also gets hit a lot. He is, however, extremely tough and has shown a good chin outside of his debut against Makdessi, and Vegas agrees he’ll be tough to finish.
On the mat, Koch has a very good offensive submission grappling game and he’s won several fights by submission in his career, but Campbell showed awesome defense in his last fight and I don’t expect him to get caught in a sub. Campbell also fought really hard for position on the ground, which is a good sign that he can fight and defend if need be for a full three rounds.
Mostly because of Koch’s layoff, this fight brings some unknowns, but I like Campbell as a tournament target. Even if the fight goes to decision, he’s capable of landing a large enough amount of strikes to pay off the price, and I think he’s sneaky to get a finish.
Fight Prediction: Campbell by TKO, RD 2
Aljamain Sterling vs. Bryan Caraway
Fight Odds: Sterling -425, Caraway +340
Odds to finish: +135
Salaries: Sterling 11k, Caraway 8.4k
Weight Class: 135
I’m much more excited to watch this fight between Aljamain Sterling and Bryan Caraway than I am to roster either guy on DraftKings. Both have very similar fighting styles, they’re primary focus is to grind the fight to the ground and look for a submission, and they’re both pretty good.
Sterling definitely has the advantage in speed and athleticism in this fight and that may very well be the difference, because I think it’s a close matchup on paper. While the fight stays standing, I honestly don’t know who will have the advantage, but my guess is that it will be low output and there wont be many damaging shots.
Sterling is great at keeping the fight in his range, which means he’s either backed off completely throwing kicks, or he’s on the inside looking for a clinch takedown. He rarely sits in the pocket and exchanges, and his striking is extremely kick heavy with single shots. Caraway is probably the better boxer and he’ll throw more punches than Sterling, but I doubt he’s going to be able to get into boxing range well enough to win rounds that way.
I expect the grappling skills of both are fairly equal, with the wrestling advantage to Sterling and the submission grappling advantage to Caraway, but if someone lands takedowns in this fight I think it will be Sterling. He’s simply more athletic and quick and I doubt Caraway could get him on the ground. I really don’t think the fight will stay too long on the ground anyway.
From a DraftKings perspective, I don’t expect this fight to be high scoring, and I really don’t want to pay the premium to roster Sterling, even at his odds. Vegas doesn’t like this fight to finish quickly, and if it goes to decision, I don’t think either fighter has a high floor. I’d almost rather pay the price on Caraway in case he wins a decision, but I think it’s more likely to be a fade for me this weekend.
Fight Prediction: Sterling by Decision
Chris De La Rocha vs. Adam Milstead
Fight Odds: Milstead -255, Rocha +215
Odds to finish: -115
Salaries: Milstead 10.7k, Rocha 8.7k
Weight Class: HW
We meet again Chris De La Rocha, I remember you not so fondly from your last bout against Daniel Omielanczuk.
That matchup featured a quick KO from Omielanczuk against the UFC newcomer, and even though he gets a second chance against Adam Milstead, I’m not sure the fight will end any differently.
Milstead is making his UFC debut but he comes in with much more hype. He’s a longtime wrestler with heavy hands and a huge athletic fame. The athleticism difference in this matchup alone would probably have me favoring Milstead for a KO, but Rocha looked so hittable and outclassed in his last fight that I can’t help but side heavily in the corner of Milstead.
Vegas has him pegged as -250 favorite with a high chance to win inside the distance, and he’s a clear high-upside play on this card. I expect him to be popular, and if you want to go CONTRARIAN, I think siding with Rocha at a low price and ownership level is a solid tournament play. This is still heavyweight, remember, so anything can happen.
Overall, I’m expecting Milstead to come out aggressively with his boxing and outland Rocha early. Milstead will most likely hurt Rocha early and either finish him on the feet with his boxing, or take him down and finish there. I think Milstead is viable in all formats but he still carries some risk in cash games.
Fight Prediction: Milstead by TKO, RD 1