UFC Fight Night: Alvarez vs. Poirier Quick Picks
Welcome to another edition of the UFC Quick Picks!
This is one of the best non-PPV cards in a long time, we get the big names like Jose Aldo, Joanna Jedrzejczyk and of course Dustin Poirier and Eddie Alvarez in the Main Event. And DraftKings has boosted the prize pools which include more than $200K and six Qualifier seats up for grabs!
If you want FULL BREAKDOWNS of every single fight on the card, projections, rankings and more, you can find that in the Premium Section here. We’ve also launched the MMA LINEUP BUILDER which you can access with my projections if you purchase the premium content.
Onto the fights!
Cash Game Plays
1. Islam Makhachev, $9,600
The most expensive fighter on the slate is priced at 9.6k for good reason, Islam Makhachev is a -700 favorite over Kajan Johnson and he’s clearly the top cash game play.
Makhachev is a poor man’s Khabib, he lands 4.46 takedowns per 15 minutes with outstanding grappling credentials and the ability to hold opponents down and advance position for the duration of the fight. Plus he has solid ability to finish with an ITD line of +206.
Johnson is a decent wrestler and grappler, who strikes at a low volume on the feet. Makhachev has similar strengths and weaknesses, but he’s the much more talented fighter and I expect him to learn lots of top control time in this matchup. The ability to grapple, and the sky high odds to win make Makhachev an easy cash game option.
2. Dustin Poirier, $8,800
The Main Event favorite is always a fighter to consider in cash games, and I think Dustin Poirier is a great option this week at 8.8k. I’ll also be considering the underdog Eddie Alvarez at 7.4k, but if I have to choose just one in cash games, it will be Poirier.
He is the superior range striker with ability to defend takedowns, and as long as he can avoid damaging strikes from Alvarez, he should be in control. Poirier has the ability to strike for 25 minutes at a high volume, which gives him a strong floor, and he has major potential to win ITD at -101.
I always look toward the Main Event to anchor my cash game teams, and I’ll be doing the same this week with Poirier at 8.8k.
Tournament Plays
1. Hakeem Dawodu, $9,400
The fighter with the best ITD line on the slate is Hakeem Dawodu at -120, who carries a stiff price tag of 9.4k. But you get what you pay for, and Dawodu is a -370 favorite with massive potential to win by knockout.
He’s coming off a shaky UFC debut in which he was rocked in just a few seconds and finished, so I do have pause, but the UFC is setting him up with a hit-table opponent in Austin Arnett in Dawodu’s home country of Canada.
Dawodu is the superior athlete and superior striker, and he should be able to land at will on Arnett, and potentially finish inside the distance. In tournaments, we’re always looking for upside and there’s no denying that’s what Dawodu has, I am very much willing to look toward him as the top overall target in GPPs.
2. Gadzhimurad Antigulov, $8,600
One of the top overall fights to target from a tournament perspective is Gadzhimurad Antigulov vs. Ion Cutelaba and I will have lots of exposure to both sides. At the moment, my preferred option is Antigulov for 8.6k.
Antigulov is a great fighter to target because he looks to wrestle instantly, and he’s good at it. And once he gets the fight on the mat, he’s excellent at securing submissions. That’s what he will try to do here, and if he doesn’t succeed, he’s likely to get finished later in the fight.
Antigulov has a very strong ITD line of +137 and we know he has massive potential to grapple, which makes him one of the best overall tournament targets on the slate. And if you’re not targeting Antigulov, I strongly recommend Cutelaba as an option for 7.6k.
Fade of the Week
1. Katlyn Chookagian, $8,700
We can’t roster every fighter on every slate, sometimes we have to make cuts. There are many fighters with high upside and strong chances to win, some have great potential to grapple.
One fighter who doesn’t possess any of those characteristics is Katlyn Chookagian, who is priced at 8.7k. She’s only a -160 favorite and has zero intention of getting the fight on the mat, she chooses to strike at long distance and land in volume. She’s a bit like Holly Holm, without the potential to land something hard.
Chookagian has an ITD line of +570 which is very poor, especially for a favorite. With little potential to finish and poor overall metrics, I’m happy to fade Chookagian against Alexis Davis this weekend.