UFC Fight Night: Arlovski vs. Barnett Beat Down
We are only one week away from UFC 203, a very solid card that should bring back big DraftKings contests and solid MMA action, but for now, we get an appetizer card in Germany that features a few fun fights and some light prize pools
There are five fighters making their UFC debuts on this card, and it will definitely be tricky to get a full grasp on each of their fighting styles, but I think that can make or break your lineups this week.
I’ve done my best to point of some of my favorite plays and help you get an idea of each of these fighters’ worths, so let’s get out there and win some money.
I couldn’t quite get to a podcast this week, but look out next week for a full plate on content. Follow me on Twitter at BrettAppley and at DailyFanMMA to get ALL the updates you need.
Onto the fights!
MAIN CARD
Andrei Arlovski vs. Josh Barnett
Fight Odds: Barnett -150, Arlovski +130
Odds to finish: -400
Salaries: Barnett 9.7k, Arlovski 9.7k
Weight Class: HW
Heavyweight fights are generally tough to predict and I think this is another close fight in the division. Josh Barnett is a slight favorite at -150 and has a better ITD prop of -104 to +196 respectively, so you can definitely argue he has value for the 9.7k price.
Barnett is a noted submission grappler and he’ll definitely have the advantage on the ground, if he can get there. He’s not too bad on the feet either, and is probably more consistent than Arlovski, who finds himself in low-output lulls more often than not. Still, Arlovski has the punching power that Barnett really does not and that could play a big role.
In 42 pro fights, Barnett has only been knocked out twice, which is Arlovski’s best chance to win. I don’t find highly likely that Arlovski finds Barnett’s chin early but it’s definitely a possibility. Arlovski is much more of the finish or be finished fighter, and he’s been knocked out nine times in 37 fights. He’s actually never been submitted, but I don’t think that’s because of his amazing grappling defense.
For the price, I think Barnett is a solid value in cash games and a definite tournament play. Arlovski is more risky and he’s slightly overpriced, so I don’t think he’s a necessity in cash games, but you can definitely consider him and you can certainly target him in tournaments as well.
Unless it’s a complete snoozefest, I think the winner of this fight has a great chance to be on winning tournament lineups, so I plan to have heavy exposure to the fight as a whole.
Fight Prediction: Barnett by TKO, RD 3
Alexander Gustafsson vs. Jan Blachowicz
Fight Odds: Gustafsson -750, Blachowicz +525
Odds to finish: -180
Salaries: Gustafsson 12.5k, Blachowicz 6.9k
Weight Class: 205
You are reading correctly, Alexander Gustafsson is priced at 12.5k this weekend, the highest price I can remember in a long time and possibly ever on DraftKings. He’s a massive favorite at -750 and obvious pick to win and most likely finish in this fight with Jan Blachowicz, but can we pay for him?
In cash games, I think the answer is yes. There are really two key factors to my answer and the first relates to value. To fit a guy priced at 12.5k, with the 2nd highest fighter priced at 11k, we are going to need some serious value in our lineups, and in this card, I think there’s enough.
DraftKings has been on this weird pricing streak lately where random fighters are horribly mis-priced. The site feels like a rebellious teenager in which we are the parents waiting for them to grow up and mature. This card isn’t as bad as previous weeks, but there are standouts like Peter Sobotta who’s 8.4k and only a +100 underdog, for example.
The second factor is safety in the rest of the card, and outside of Gustafsson, there aren’t many safe options. The next heaviest favorite is Khabilov who’s -400 but who’s only landed more than 33 sig. strikes once in seven fights in the UFC. That’s not a great statistic. There are certainly viable routes to go that don’t include Gustafsson, but as a -750 favorite with an ITD prop of -140, it’s hard to ignore him.
In tournaments, he’s equally viable but not as necessary based on the price. I’ll probably have exposure to him but I won’t be extremely overweight compared to the field.
Not that I need to spend much time breaking it down, but from a matchup perspective, I think he has the advantages in every area. Don’t forget Gustafsson has taken down Jon Jones and Daniel Cormier in his career, so Blachowicz shouldn’t give him much trouble. On the feet he’s a much more diverse and higher output striker, and really outside of a random KO, I think he should cruise to a victory.
Fight Prediction: Gustafsson by TKO, RD 2
Ryan Bader vs. Illir Latifi
Fight Odds: Bader -220, Latifi +180
Odds to finish: -150
Salaries: Bader 10.3k, Latifi 9.1k
Weight Class: 205
I think this will be a fairly popular matchup to target, especially on the side of Ilir Latifi. Latifi is priced at 9.1k and is a +180 dog, but he’s a powerful puncher and everyone’s seen Bader’s quick KO loss to Anthony Johnson. It’s fairly easy to picture Latifi landing a big punch early, and for the price, he’ll be popular.
On one hand, if Latifi is going to be super popular as a moderate dog, and Bader will be low owned, I definitely want some shares of Bader. Especially because Bader carries a shockingly high finish prop of +159.
On the other hand, I can picture Latifi winning this fight. Bader is essentially better than everyone outside of the top five in this division and he certainly should be favored, but his chin isn’t great and I expect this matchup to stay standing.
Latifi is a fairly low-output striker and I don’t think he’ll be able to get his wrestling going against Bader, so unless he wins with a quick knockout, he should lose this fight. I’m definitely on him in tournaments, but I’m still hesitant in cash games because there are better, more reliable values. I’ll have exposure to Bader in tournaments too because it’s hard to pass up the price, projected ownership and odds to finish.
Fight Prediction: Bader by Decision
Nick Hein vs. Tae Hyun Bang
Fight Odds: Hein -235, Bang +195
Odds to finish: +130
Salaries: Hein 10.5k, Bang 8.9k
Weight Class: 155
Nick Hein is one of two Germans on the card, and fighting with a “home field advantage” could definitely come into play if the judges get involved. His opponent Tae Hyun Bang had home field advantage in his last fight, which was one of the weirdest situations I’ve encountered in MMA.
Bang opened as a -180 favorite against Leo Kuntz, but he dropped to a +325 in the hours before the fight. He put on a decent performance, but it left me with a lot to be desired in his game. He’s a powerful puncher and he moves forward, and those are probably his best attributes. His takedown defense is poor and his submission grappling defense is more or less awful.
In his last fight, Bang had his back taken and Kuntz had a full rear-naked choke locked in, and Bang defended by staring off into space. Literally he did nothing. Kuntz ended up running out of muscle after 30 seconds and Bang escaped.
Hein is a high level judoka and I think he’s best route to victory is to take this fight to the ground, but I’m not positive he comes out with a grappling based gameplan. He’s been much more striking prone in his past few fights and I think that makes this bout dangerous. I’m definitely of the opinion that Hein is the more talented fighter, and he certainly has the better gas tank.
On DraftKings, Hein is the third heaviest favorite at 10.5k, and while I expect him to be low owned, I don’t think he’s worth rostering in many lineups. I could potentially see a late submission finish here, but with an ITD prop of +304, it’s hard to pay the price. Bang’s ITD prop sits at +352, but his price of 8.9k is much better. I still won’t be rostering much, but I think he’s worth a flyer in large-field tournaments.
Fight Prediction: Hein by Decision
UNDERCARD
Jessin Ayari vs. Jim Wallhead
Fight Odds: Wallhead -135, Ayari +115
Odds to finish: -125
Salaries: Ayari 10.1k, Wallhead 9.3k
Weight Class: 170
Even though both Jessin Ayari and Jim Wallhead are making their UFC debuts, this is not a prospect vs. prospect matchup. Ayari is young yes, but he’s fought 18 times and has a notable victory over Mikael Lebout. Wallhead is 32 years old and has fought 38 times, so he’s most likely already past his prime.
I think most people would argue Wallhead is the superior fighter in this matchup and there’s no arguing his experience advantage. He’s earned 11 TKOs and 10 submission victories in his career, and his strong judo base gives him that extra flair.
Ayari is probably best on the feet but even there he’s nothing special. I think Wallhead has the advantages all around, even if they’re slight, and I think he has a good chance of winning and even stopping Ayari in this one.
Wallhead is favored slightly but he’s only priced at 9.3k, and I like him for that price. With an ITD prop of +195, I’m fine with Wallhead in any format. I don’t think I’ll have much Ayari in this one, even though it’s still a close fight, he’s overpriced and his finish prop of +315 makes me want to look elsewhere.
Fight Prediction: Wallhead by TKO, RD 2
Peter Sobotta vs. Nicholas Dalby
Fight Odds: Dalby -130, Sobotta +110
Odds to finish: +175
Salaries: Dalby 11k, Sobotta 8.4k
Weight Class: 170
Nicholas Dalby is the second highest priced fighter on the card at 11k, and his opponent Peter Sobotta is the second lowest at 8.4k. However, the odds indicate it’s a close fight, with Dalby edging out Sobotta at -130.
It’s really a value that’s hard to pass up especially in cash games. This fight isn’t likely to end inside the distance, and neither fighter carries a juicy finish prop, but Sobotta is mispriced by more than 1k. I’m not looking for a 100 points out of him, but I’ll take 25 points in a loss or a 50+ point win AT THAT PRICE.
He’s not a must play, but if you want to roster Gustafsson, he’s one of the better ways to fit him in.
In tournaments, again, it’s hard to ignore the price compared to the odds, and it’s not like Sobotta has NO upside. But I don’t think I’ll have a ton of him because I really don’t expect him to get a finish in this fight. He’s a decent grappler and has a good RNC, but Dalby is very well-rounded and tough to finish. The only good thing about Dalby is his potential 0% ownership, but I don’t think I’m paying the price on him this weekend.
Fight Prediction: Dalby by Decision
Ashlee Evans-Smith vs. Veronica Macedo
Fight Odds: Smith -265, Macedo +225
Odds to finish: +115
Salaries: Smith 9.9k, Macedo 9.5k
Weight Class: 135
Ashlee Evans-Smith isn’t an elite fighter in the 135 division but this is an interesting matchup that I think brings her into consideration. Evans-Smith is a good wrestler with a developing striking game and that’s about it. She is also big for the weight class and that’s going to be a huge advantage in this matchup.
Veronica Macedo is an interesting prospect but she’s very very small for this weight class and she’s only been fighting professionally for six months. I actually think she has decent striking and could develop in the future, but her wrestling game has looked pretty poor on the regional scene.
If Evans-Smith uses a grappling based game, which I don’t see why she wouldn’t, I think she’ll be able to take the fight to the gorund with ease. There’s always a chance she could get submitted along the way, but I wouldn’t count on it. If the fight stays standing I’d probably give Macedo a slight edge, but she’s so raw at age 20 that it’s hard to trust her.
Evans-Smith makes for a sneaky tournament play with a finish prop of +280 and I don’t see her ownership being that high. Macedo might draw some attention but I won’t be heavy on her in this matchup, although I won’t completely talk you off her.
Fight Prediction: Evans-Smith by Decision
Taylor Lapilus vs. Leandro Issa
Fight Odds: Lapilus -150, Issa +130
Odds to finish: -165
Salaries: Lapilus 10k, Issa 9.4k
Weight Class: 135
Even though this fight is priced fairly accurately compared to the odds (shocking I know), it’s one of my favorite fights to target in tournaments. Taylor Lapilus is one of the better prospects in the 135 lb. division, even though he’s still raw at times, he’s super athletic and has a good base of skills.
Lapilus is a fairly strong striker but he’ll definitely have the stand-up advantages in this fight over opponent Leandro Issa. Issa is a world-champion jiu-jitsu player but he’s fairly limited outside that arena.
Essentially we have a striker vs. grappler matchup, and although it’s risky to target on both sides, I definitely can picture a finish. If Lapilus can keep the fight standing, I think he’ll beat up Issa pretty badly. Issa’s also shown to have poor cardio at times, which could play a factor if he can’t secure an early takedown. Laplius is strong tournament play for his potential to keep the fight upright, land significant strikes early, and hopefully earn a first or second round TKO. I think he’s also worth considering in cash, although he’s not one of my top options.
I expect Issa to go relatively overlooked because he hasn’t shown huge upside lately, and Lapilus is a popular fighter. With a lower projected ownership, Issa is a very intriguing tournament option. Laplius has shown poor takedown defense at times, even defending with a kimora counter which generally shows inexperience, and I wouldn’t be shocked if Issa can get him to the ground early. From there, Issa will have a massive advantage, and I think he has potential to lock in an early choke. Issa is way too risky to target in cash games, but I’ll have some exposure to him in GPPs.
Fight Prediction: Lapilus by TKO, RD 2
Scott Askham vs. Jack Hermansson
Fight Odds: Askham -110, Hermansson -110
Odds to finish: +115
Salaries: Hermansson 9.8k, Askham 9.6k
Weight Class: 185
I haven’t quite been able to peg Scott Askham as a prospect, but I will say that I’m still tentative on his upside. He’s a good clinch fighter with knockout power, but he doesn’t strike well at range and his grappling isn’t high-level.
Jack Hermansson is making his UFC debut but he’s been around the block and is a notable name on the regional circuits. He’s primarily an outside striker which I think gives him an advantage in this fight. If he can keep Askham at range, he should be able to take the fight. If Askham can get inside, well, it’s probably his fight to win.
Askham is slightly favored on many sites but the fight is essentially a pick’em, and there’s a slight odds value on his price of 9.6k. I think he’ll draw more ownership than Hermansson, and I think he’s an OK play, but I won’t be too heavy on him.
These fighters have identical finish props of +314 and I don’t see this fight as extremely likely to end inside the distance, so I’ll probably stay away in general. I might toss a few lineups in with Hermansson based on his low projected ownership, but in general I think there are better tournament options.
Fight Prediction: Hermansson by Decision
Jarjis Danho vs. Christian Colombo
Fight Odds: Danho -110, Colombo -110
Odds to finish: -195
Salaries: Danho 10.4k, Colombo 9k
Weight Class: HW
Jarjis Danho made his UFC debut against Daniel Omielanczuk, and it’s safe to say it did not go well. Danho showed some positives early on in the fight, most notably a good chin and some power in his hands, but after the first few minutes, it was awful. He completely gassed out, didn’t throw more than a strike or two for the next several minutes, and ended up quitting in the 3rd round after a questionable punch to his cup.
I’m not high on Danho as a prospect, but that doesn’t mean we can ignore him. My concerns still stand about his cardio, and it makes sense as he was a former professional weightlifter, he has bursting speed but little endurance.
Christian Colombo is making his UFC debut, and he’s not much of a touted prospect either. From what I’ve been able to find, he has more of a striking background than Danho does, although his takedown defense is non-existent. If the fight does get out of the first round, I think you have to favor Colombo.
As it should be, this fight is dead even on the odds, but DraftKings priced Danho at 10.4k compared to Colombo’s 9k tag. Danho carries a finish prop of +186, slightly higher than Colombo’s +172.
For the price and odds, I will definitely be higher on Colombo than Danho in this matchup, but I can’t say I’m super confident in his chances. I still think Danho is worth playing in tournaments as well, even if he’s overpriced, I will have shares of him.
These two will likely swing leather for the first minute or two until someone hits the canvas and even though there’s massive risk of a zero on both sides, it’s one of the top upside fights to target this weekend.
Fight Prediction: Colombo by TKO, RD 2
Rustam Khabilov vs. Leandro Silva
Fight Odds: Khabilov -420, Silva +335
Odds to finish: +175
Salaries: Khabilov 10.2k, Silva 9.2k
Weight Class: 155
On paper this is one of the more boring fights on the card between two low-output grapplers in Rustam Khabilov and Leandro Silva, and if they were priced according to their odds, I probably wouldn’t touch this fight.
Khabilov is the second heaviest favorite at -420 but he’s only priced at 10.2k, so he’s a significant value. The problem is that he’s very grappling focused and that in itself gives him a low floor. I think you could argue his worth in cash games based on the odds to win, but he’s not a must, even at the savings.
I do think he makes for an interesting tournament play, he’s the vastly superior fighter to Silva in my opinion and shouldn’t really have a problem getting a victory here, but I do think he has sneaky upside. With an ITD prop of +254, that doesn’t scream huge upside, but I expect him to be the controlling fighter and I don’t think a RNC win is out of the question. For the price, I’m willing to take a few chances o Khabilov in tournaments, but otherwise I’ll be off this fight as a whole.
Fight Prediction: Khabilov by Decision