UFC Fight Night: Assuncao vs. Moraes Quick Picks
Welcome back to another edition of the UFC Quick Picks!
We have UFC Fortaleza this week, and it’s the start of a busy stretch with nine consecutive weeks of fights! That’s great news for us, and I only expect the prize pools to continue to grow.
If you want FULL BREAKDOWNS of every single fight on the card, projections, rankings and more, you can find that in the Premium Section here. We’ve also launched the MMA LINEUP BUILDER which you can access with my projections if you purchase the premium content.
Onto the fights!
Cash Game Plays
1. Raphael Assuncao, 7.4k
We’ll start off the week with a Main Event target in cash games, and my preference for this format is Raphael Assuncao at 7.4k.
He’s the underdog against Marlon Moraes, even though he beat Moraes in a very competitive decision in 2017. Assuncao isn’t traditionally a high-upside target, but he is a high-floor target and is somewhat undervalued at 7.4k compared to his +145 betting line.
It’s always smart to get exposure to the Main Event considering it’s five-round potential, but I’d much rather pay 7.4k than 8.8k for Moraes if we are expecting another slow-paced, competitive matchup. I still think the Main Event stack is in play, but I value Assuncao at his price tag much more than Moraes in this particular format.
The Over on 4.5 rounds is -190 in this matchup, and as long as Assuncao can survive, he should be able to score 40 points which gives him one of the best floors on the slate.
2. Livinha Souza, 9.1k
I actually don’t think there are any must-plays in cash games outside of Assuncao, but one fighter I do like in the top tier is Livinha Souza at 9.1k.
Souza definitely has her weaknesses, she’s not an elite striker or wrestler, but she’s a black belt in jiu-jitsu and judo, and has solid grappling upside in this matchup. She’ll be taking on newcomer Sarah Frota, who is big and physical but not as technical of a grappler as Souza.
Souza is actually the second heaviest favorite on the slate at -220 so she’s still relatively safe, with upside. And I expect her to land takedowns and advances en route to a victory.
You can consider paying all the way up for Magomed Bibulatov at 9.4k, considering his betting line of -475, but I think Souza is another very solid play in cash games at 9.1k if you want to save a few dollars.
Tournament Plays
1. Charles Oliveira, 8.5k
Only -115 on the betting line against David Teymur, Oliveira is a bit overpriced at 8.5k to consider in cash games.
But there’s no arguing he carries elite upside each and every time he steps in the Octagon, and I will be taking a chance with him in tournaments this weekend. Teymur has showed strong wrestling and scrambling thus far, but he hasn’t faced a grappler as strong or as dangerous as Oliveira, who holds 17 career submission wins.
I think Oliveira has a real chance to get in top position early, which could lead to a submission in theory. For 8.5k, he’s cheap enough that a finish would certainly pay off the price, and that’s all I care about in this format. Plus his ITD line is +142 is fairly strong for the price.
He could be in trouble if he fails to land takedowns, but the risk is sometimes worth the reward. And with 100 point upside at 8.5k, I’m willing to take the risk on Oliveira this weekend.
2. Demian Maia, 8.7k
Another obvious high-upside target on this slate is Demian Maia at 8.7k, who is coming off three consecutive losses to Tyron Woodley, Colby Covington and Kamaru Usman.
There’s clearly risk to Maia, if he fails to land takedowns he will struggle to win and put up value, but there’s no denying his early finishing upside. And his opponent Lyman Good is a decent wrestler, but he doesn’t carry the same pedigree as Maia’s recent opponents.
With an ITD line of +135, the best on the entire slate and clear grappling upside, I’m willing to take the risk on Maia and target him in tournaments.
Fade of the Week
1. Jose Aldo, 7.9k
This is not my usual candidate for Fade of the Week and I don’t think YOU have to follow my lead, but I want to explain my thought process here.
Aldo is a fighter who will gain ownership on every single slate regardless of his opponent, and it should be peaked considering he’s coming off an early knockout win. But he’s generally not a fighter who we can expect to wrestle or strike at a high rate, so his entire fantasy potential comes down to a finish.
Yes, he’s capable of finishing opponents, but he’s +550 ITD against Moicano who has proven to be fairly durable. At 7.9k, if Aldo is going to gain his usual 25-30 percent ownership and his only real chance of paying off is by knocking Moicano out early, then I’d rather just fade him completely.