UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Gaethje Quick Picks
Welcome back to another edition of the UFC Quick Picks!
One of my favorite Main Events of the year is slated for Saturday night in Philadelphia, as Edson Barboza takes on Justin Gaethje in what will surely be violent and action-packed for as long as it lasts. And DraftKings has given us plenty of money to play for, so I’ve listed some of my favorite plays below as usual.
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Onto the fights!
Cash Game Plays
1. Justin Gaethje, 8.7k
Avoiding Justin Gaethje in any format is a risky move, and he’s definitely a fighter worth considering in cash games this weekend.
Gaethje isn’t a lock to win, but he’s +115 against Edson Barboza and is only 7.7k, so he already has value to the price. He’s fighting in the Main Event, so he has the five-round potential we like to target as well.
And he’s landed a whopping 8.53 significant strikes per minute in his UFC career, which dramatically increases his floor. Gaethje is 2-2 in the UFC, and has scored 58 and 61 points in his two losses, along with 122 and 104 in his two wins. Those are massive numbers, and give him an extremely high floor for the price tag.
Of course I am high on Barboza as a cash game play as well, but it’s tough to ignore Gaethje at his price.
2. Alex Perez, 9.2k
If you’re paying up in cash games, my favorite mix of safety and upside is Alex Perez at 9.2k.
Perez is coming off a TKO loss to Joseph Benavidez, but this is a much more friendly matchup against Mark De La Rosa, and Perez is currently -330 to win and +150 ITD.
Rosa has submission grappling skills but doesn’t have the strongest wrestling to get the fight to the mat, and I expect Perez to defend takedowns with consistency and hold the advantage on the feet.
Perez has scored 95, 73 and 142 in his three UFC wins and I expect another very solid score here as long as he can get his hand raised. There are many different routes to take for tournaments, but in cash games Perez is a fighter I will be very strongly considering.
Tournament Plays
1. Enrique Barzola, 8.2k
I expect Enrique Barzola to be a popular target, and at 8.2k he’s tough to ignore in tournaments.
The downside is that he’s -115 to win, so he’s not a lock by any stretch, and isn’t necessarily a must play for that reason. But he’s one of the higher volume wrestlers in the sport and has landed 6.17 takedowns per 15 minute, and that’s the best way to score consistently on DraftKings.
That gives Barzola a higher floor and ceiling than the typical fighter, he’s averaged 87.3 fantasy points over five UFC bouts.
At 8.2k, I like the mix of safety and upside that Barzola carries due to his volume wrestling, and he’s definitely worth consideration in both cash game and tournament formats.
2. Kennedy Nzechukwu, 9k
I will have both sides of this Nzechukwu vs. Craig matchup in tournaments, as the fight as a whole is -365 to end inside the distance.
Nzechukwu however, is the -175 favorite and holds the best ITD line on the slate at -125, so he definitely peaks my interest at 9k. He comes from a solid camp and is very long and rangy, so I expect Nzechukwu to have a clear advantage while this fight plays out on the feet.
He may be at a risk to be taken down, but Craig has questionable wrestling and I wouldn’t be surprised if he failed. The longer Nzechukwu can keep the fight standing, the better chance he will have at a finish and I’m willing to take shots on him for the upside in tournaments.
Fade of the Week
1. Desmond Green, 9.3k
Green is the heaviest favorite on the card at -420, so I think he’s worth considering in cash games, but in tournaments I will be fading him completely.
Green has scored only 64 and 69 points in his two UFC wins, he strikes at a low rate of 3.21 per minute and has only landed one takedown per 15. Those numbers aren’t strong enough to put up big scores consistently, especially not at 9.3k.
For Green to pay off the price tag he really needs a finish, and is currently +430 ITD, a terrible number considering his line to win. I would much rather target Perez or Borg, or drop lower than pay 9.3k for Green in tournaments this weekend.