UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Lee Quick Picks
Two fights have already been canceled, Aspen Ladd vs. Leslie Smith and Magomed Bibulatov vs. Ulka Sasaki, so we are down to 11 fights again. While I’m not happy with that, there are still 22 fighters on this card to analyze and some of them make for strong plays.
There’s also plenty of money to be on won DraftKings, and that’s ultimately why we are here. So I’ve listed out a few of my favorite options for the week and I’m hopeful the rest of the fights continue without an issue!
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Onto the fights!
Cash Game Plays
1. Justin Willis, $9,300
With Magomed Bibulatov off the slate, the top option on the board is Justin Willis at $9,300 taking on Chase Sherman. It’s always risky in a sense to target heavyweights in cash games, but Willis is one of the biggest favorites on the board at -330 with an ITD line of +110.
In two UFC fights Willis has shown capable of striking, and he also has a wrestling pedigree to fall back on, and either route should be good enough to get an edge over Sherman, who has some of the worst defense in the division.
I expect Willis to be a popular play here, but he’s also a clear option and someone I’m willing to target heavily this weekend in all formats.
2. Frankie Edgar, $9,000
I’m nervous about Frankie Edgar coming off the first knockout loss of his career, but I do like the technical angles in this fight with Cub Swanson, who he’s already beaten handily.
As long as Edgar can survive, he should be landing takedowns, advancing and landing a fair number of significant strikes. His odds to finish are not strong, but he can put up a high floor and for cash games that’s a fighter I want to target.
Compared to other fighters in this range like Dan Hooker and Thiago Santos, I feel Edgar is the safest option to land takedowns, and therefore the safest option for cash games.
Tournament Plays
1. Ricky Simon and Merab Dvalishvili
I’m rolling with a fight to target here and hopeful at least one side gets overlooked. It’s a competitive bout, with Simon lined at -140 and Dvalishvili lined at +130. Both fighters can wrestle at an extremely high pace and both have already proven capable of landing more than 10 takedowns in a three-round fight.
With that high pace, with the style each excels at, I’m hopeful the winner here can land several takedowns. Dvalishvili is only priced at $7,500 and I think he’s more than capable of putting up a big number based on that style, if he gets the win.
And if Simon comes through with the victory, I still think he’ll be forced to fight at a high enough pace where he put up a strong score for $8,700. There still isn’t a ton of data on these two and it’s why the line is competitive, but I like this fight as a whole and it will be one of my heavier targets on the weekend in tournaments.
2. Luan Chagas, $8,000
One of the only value options on the board is Luan Chagas at $8,000, who is -125 on the betting line and has an ITD prop of +163. Those are strong numbers for the price and I think it puts him in play in all formats.
He’s taking on a tough veteran in Siyar Bahadurzada and by no means am I expecting an easy win, but Chagas is capable of striking at a high rate and he has a solid submission grappling game to fall back on, and most of his fights end inside the distance.
Regardless of the risk, I think the upside is there on Chagas and so I’ll be willing to take shots on him in tournaments this weekend.
Fade of the Week
1. Tony Martin, $8,800
The only thing that concerns me here is the line at -250, which is quite high for this bout between Tony Martin and Keita Nakamura. But that price of $8,800 is simply too high, Martin is priced in a range with legitimate talents who can finish.
The line on Martin winning ITD is +928 which is horrendous, and I don’t think he’s capable of dominating Nakamura on the mat. He’s never earned a knockout in his career and I doubt this will be the first time.
At that price, I’m comfortable fading Martin in all formats and pivoting onto basically any other option in his range.