UFC Fight Night Beat Down: Rothwell vs. Dos Santos
Welcome back from MMA hibernation and if you haven’t been paying attention for the last month you probably missed some big news…
1. Conor McGregor is fighting Nate Diaz, again.
2. Daniel Cormier is injured and not fighting Jon Jones.
3. Other stuff.
But with a long stretch of fights on the horizon, we get our feet wet with a mediocre card in Zagreb. It’s a very interesting slate in the sense that there are a lot of newcomers, and A LOT of heavyweight fights. WAY TOO MANY heavyweight fights. Seriously, one is enough per card..but this one has five that includes four at the very top.
I think that makes it a tough slate to call in cash games because you will probably be forced onto one or more of these guys.
What’s also interesting is that due to Kountermove’s presence, the UFC released salaries much sooner than the MMA odds were released. That means there are a ton of discrepancies between odds and salaries, so make sure you take a good look at Vegas before making your lineups.
Onto the fights!
MAIN CARD
Ben Rothwell vs. Junior Dos Santos
Fight Odds: Dos Santos -130, Rothwell +110
Odds to finish: -550
Salaries: Rothwell 9.7k, Dos Santos 9.7k
Weight Class: HW
One of these two fighters is on an upward trajectory in their career while the other is on a steep decline. It’s not that Dos Santos is a bad fighter now, but he’s looked pretty awful as of late and seems extremely tentative and easy to hit.
There’s not a ton that jumps off the page in Ben Rothwell’s game, but he’s tough and has a good chin, and he’s pretty well-rounded. He also has momentum on his side and when he steps into the Octagon against shop-warn fighters like Dos Santos, he seems to have an edge.
This is one of the few fights on this card in which the odds are pretty accurate, I think it’s essentially a toss up but I give a decent lean to Rothwell. If Dos Santos looks anything like he has in his past couple fights, I think Rothwell probably knocks him out early. Dos Santos has taken a lot of damage and Rothwell has a knack of damaging opponents.
In GPP, I think both are strongly in play, but I prefer Rothwell.
Fight Prediction: Rothwell by TKO, RD 2
Derrick Lewis vs. Gabriel Gonzaga
Fight Odds: Lewis -140, Gonzaga +120
Odds to finish: -475
Salaries: Gonzaga 10.3k, Lewis 9.1k
Weight Class: HW
For the second fight in a row, we get a HW bout that features a fighter clearly on the rise in Derrick Lewis, fighting a veteran on the decline in Gabriel Gonzaga.
Lewis has been extremely impressive in his recent knock outs and I think it’s likely he gets another one here against Gonzaga, who’s been knocked out in two of his past three fights. If this fight stays standing and these two are forced to trade shots on the feet, I give a big edge to Lewis.
Gonzaga will most likely look to take this fight to the mat and ride Lewis down into a submission, but I’m not going to pay the 10.3k price on him to find out if he’ll succeed. Locking in a submission is tough these days, and although Lewis has a finish or be finished tendency, I don’t see Gonzaga stopping him early.
As a favorite with extremely high upside, Lewis is one of the top plays on the night at 9.1k. He still carries a risk because it’s a heavyweight fight, where analysis goes to die, but I think he’ll be popular and I expect him to get the job done inside the distance.
Fight Prediction: Lewis by TKO, RD 1
Francis Ngannou vs. Curtis Blaydes
Fight Odds: Blaydes -145, Ngannou +125
Odds to finish: -210
Salaries: Ngannou 9.8k, Blaydes 9.6k
Weight Class: HW
Francis Ngannou showed off his power combination striking with a clean knockout victory in his UFC debut. Now he gets to welcome Curtis Blaydes to the Octagon, but even on short notice, I think Blaydes can give Ngannou a tough fight.
Blaydes is a former JC wrestling champion and he’ll need that skill set to win fights in the UFC. He’s still very green as a striker and a submission grappler but his wrestling chops are high enough that it doesn’t usually matter. Ngannou faced a wrestler in his debut and struggled for the most part, although he was only taken down once. Still, he was forced against the cage for a bit and didn’t look that sharp from his back.
If Ngannou can keep the fight standing, I think it’s likely he earns another knockout and I think he’s the much better DFS play. I actually think Blaydes will come out strong and get the fight to the ground early, and possibly win the first round, but on short notice I’m not super confident he can keep it up for three rounds.
Even if he does dominate the grappling exchanges, I think it’s unlikely Blaydes can secure a quick finish, and for that reason I’ll probably be off of him.
Fight Prediction: Blaydes by Decision
Timothy Johnson vs. Marcin Tybura
Fight Odds: Tybura -175, Johnson +155
Odds to finish: -210
Salaries: Johnson 9.9k, Tybura 9.5k
Weight Class: HW
Another heavyweight making his UFC debut, Marcin Tybura is a real threat to make noise in the UFC. He’s not an elite prospect, but he’s a more technical fighter than Timothy Johnson and he’s extremely tough.
Tybura is at his best on the ground where he’s probably one of the better grapplers in the division. Johnson is big and powerful though, and it will be interesting to see if Tybura can have success holding Johnson down.
I’m not super high on this fight, but I do like Tybura for his price, as he’s a sizable favorite and a significant price value. I think he has the upside to finish Johnson quickly, but I think it’s more likely that his fight drags out. I’m not a fan of Johnson for his price.
Fight Prediction: Tybura by Decision
Igor Pokrajac vs. Jan Blachowicz
Fight Odds: Blachowicz -360, Pokrajac +300
Odds to finish: -210
Salaries: Blachowicz 10.6k, Pokrajac 8.8k
Weight Class: 205
Welcome back to the UFC Igor Pokrajac, and most likely, good luck in another organization after you lose this fight to Jan Blachowicz. It’s not that Blachowicz is a killer in this division, but he’s better than Pokrajac, who had no luck against several lower-tier opponents.
The fact that Blachowicz is the heaviest favorite on the card should tell you enough, and the fact that he’s $800 cheaper than the top option makes him a viable play in all formats. At his best Blachowicz is a technical kick boxer with finishing ability, but in his most recent fights he’s looked a bit slow and low-volume. That does concern me, but I have to think his technique alone should give him the edge.
Fight Prediction: Blachowicz by TKO, RD 2
Maryna Moroz vs. Christina Sanciu
Fight Odds: Moroz -185, Sanciu +160
Odds to finish: -150
Salaries: Moroz 11.2k, Sanciu 8.2k
Weight Class: 115
After her quick finish of Joanne Calderwood, Maryna Moroz’ hype train took off for a short time until it came to a crashing halt against Valerie Letourneau, where her weaknesses were exposed.
She’s a solid fighter, and I was actually impressed with her stand-up against Letourneau, but my expectations were lower than most. Moroz will have a good chance to win against newcomer Christina Sanciu, but I don’t think she’s a lock and her price of 11.2k makes it difficult to pay up.
Sanciu is undefeated at 5-0 with three submission victories and one TKO, but I think her biggest strength is her power. She’s punches extremely hard and if she can get hold of an arm, she has the power to break it. However, Sanciu is quite reckless on the feet and isn’t the most technical of fighters. She comes in with a brawlers mentality and really swings for the knockout, and she likes to blitz opponents into the cage.
Moroz’ best weapon is her armbar but I don’t see her taking the fight to the ground because Sanciu should have the strength advantage, and Moroz has a very limited wrestling game. I think it’s much more likely that Sanciu gets the fight down, although that may be a mistake for her.
On the feet, I expect this fight to start out evenly, with Moroz landing more strikes but taking more damage. It wouldn’t shock me if Sanciu landed a hard shot early and completely put Moroz away. The longer the fights continues, the better chance I think Moroz has to win, and I don’t expect Sanciu to have the cardio to compete for three full rounds.
I think Sanciu is a decent punt play because I consider her a live dog in this fight, and she definitely has the upside to finish. I like Moroz to come out with the victory, but I’m not dying to pay the price tag on her.
Fight Prediction: Moroz by Decision
UNDERCARD QUICK NOTES
Nicolas Dalby vs. Zak Cummings
Fight Odds: Dalby -170, Cummings +150
Odds to finish: +155
Salaries: Cummings 10.4k, Dalby 9k
Weight Class: 170
This fight wouldn’t intrigue me if it was priced correctly, but Nicolas Dalby makes for a solid option at only 9k as a -170 favorite.
Dalby is a well-rounded prospect with some upside and he’ll definitely want to keep the fight standing against Zak Cummings, who will need to force the fight on the ground to win this bout.
Vegas doesn’t love the chances that this fight ends in a finish and neither do it, but I think Dalby is a solid cash play. He has a high significant striking rate at 4.17 and that should be more than enough to pay off the price in cash games. I’ll most likely look for upside elsewhere in tournaments.
Fight Prediction: Dalby by Decision
Ian Entwistle vs. Alejandro Perez
Fight Odds: Entwistle -145, Perez +125
Odds to finish: -420
Salaries: Perez 10.1k, Entwistle 9.3k
Weight Class: 135
This is one of my favorite GPP fights to target and I think it will be a bit under-the-radar. The reason I’m high on it is because Ian Entwistle is fighting, and he’s never won or lost by decision in his 11-fight career.
Entwistle is a leg-lock specialist, and obviously a good one because he’s in the UFC and winning fights. He pulled off a nasty heel hook against Anthony Birchak, and if he gets ahold of Alejandro Perez’ legs, the fight will probably be over.
I’ve trained quite a bit with leg locks but they are hard to watch take place, knowing the potential damage that ensues. They are so dangerous because by the time you feel pain, you’ve already been seriously injured, which is unlike other submissions. When you are put in an armlock or choke you feel the pain long before any serious injury occurs, which is why fighters often won’t tap to leg locks until it’s too late.
It takes a killer instinct to pull off leg locks at a high level and Entwistle definitely has that. He’s a good bet to finish by leg lock in the first round.
HOWEVER
If he can’t get a hold of a leg and Perez has been schooled on leg lock defense, Entwistle doesn’t have much of a game to offer. Perez isn’t a great fighter but he’s a decent kick boxer and wrestler, and if he can avoid getting tapped quickly, I think he can finish the fight.
I expect Perez to be extremely under-owned because he’s not a finisher, which makes him an elite GPP play in my mind. The worst part about this fight is that it’s impossible to analyze, unless you know exactly how much leg-lock training and how specifically skilled Perez is at leg-lock defense. I’m going to go out on a limb and pick Entwistle to win because I know what he’s capable of.
Fight Prediction: Entwistle by Heel Hook, RD 1
Maribek Taisumov vs. Damir Hadzovic
Fight Odds: Taisumov -360, Hadzovic +300
Odds to finish: +100
Salaries: Taisumov 11.4k, Hadzovic 8k
Weight Class: 155
The pricing on this fight is fairly accurate, and even though he’s expensive, I like Maribek Taisumov on this card. He’s a high-level prospect who’s scored three consecutive knockouts in the UFC.
Damir Hadzovic is actually a solid prospect himself, with not quite as much upside as Taisumov. He’s a pretty solid boxer with muay-thai skills, but he’s generally low output. The biggest concern for me is that Taisumov can be a low-output striker at times, but I think he’s the faster and stronger fighter and he’s the obvious choice to get a win.
What’s also of note is that I’m not at all confident in a finish for Taisumov. He has the upside of course, but I could easily see him outpointing Hadzovic to a decision victory, which makes me like him more so as a cash play than tournament play
Fight Prediction: Taisumov by Decision
Filip Pejic vs. Damian Stasiak
Fight Odds: Stasiak -120, Pejic +100
Odds to finish: +120
Salaries: Stasiak 10k, Pejic 9.4k
Weight Class: 135
There are so many fights with a great chance of finishing that I don’t think this fight is worth having much exposure to. Damian Stasiak got grappled to death by Yaotzin Meza in his debut, but he should have the advantages against Filip Pejic, who is making his UFC debut.
#endanalysis
Fight Prediction: Stasiak by Decision
Rob Whiteford vs. Lucas Martins
Fight Odds: Martins -120, Whiteford +100
Odds to finish: -135
Salaries: Martins 10.2k, Whiteford 9.2k
Weight Class: 145
I actually think this is a really sneaky fight to target in tournaments, on both sides. Rob Whiteford and Lucas Martins have shown promise and upside in the UFC, and I expect this fight to play out mostly on the feet.
Martins has the higher Vegas projections to win inside the distance and I think he’s the stronger play if I’m forced to pick one, but this fight is so close that I think it’s best served as a tournament option.
Fight Prediction: Martins by Decision
Jared Cannonier vs. Cyril Asker
Fight Odds: Cannonier -150, Asker +130
Odds to finish: -260
Salaries: Cannonier 10.7k, Asker 8.7k
Weight Class: HW
Another fight that has a lot of GPP potential, Jared Cannonier looks to rebound from his disappointing UFC debut with a win over newcomer Cyril Asker. Cannonier looks to be the better athlete than Asker, but he’ll be at a significant size disadvantage.
My biggest concern with Asker is that he comes from EFC, which is notorious for sending prospects to the UFC who aren’t ready to compete. This is heavyweight fight, so anything can (and usually will happen), but my lean is definitely on Cannonier.
I think he makes for one of the better GPP plays on the night as he’s priced just below the top tier but carries more upside. Asker is worth a shot in GPPs as well.
Fight Prediction: Cannonier by TKO, RD 1
Alessio Di Chirico vs. Bojan Velickovic
Fight Odds: Velickovic -170, Di Chirico +150
Odds to finish: +150
Salaries: Velickovic 10.5k, Di Chirico 8.9k
Weight Class: 185
This has one of the highest chances to end in decision according to Vegas, and that immediately makes me lose interest. These guys will absolutely be low owned, if you’re looking for a simple contrarian play, but they each carry risk that comes with making a UFC debut.
Bojan Velickovic has seemingly fought better opponents and trains out of a better camp, so he’s who I’m taking to get the victory.
Fight Prediction: Velickovic by Decision