UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs. Gastelum Quick Picks

Welcome to the UFC Shanghai Quick Picks! This is a very early morning card on Saturday, as the fights are taking place in China, and the prize pools have definitely suffered. But fear not, there are multiple PPV cards in December and I expect the Daily Fantasy MMA scene to get right back on track after the holidays.

Still, there is money to be won on DraftKings, and it’s not a terrible slate to play IF you do your research. I’ve decided to drop the MMA Premium price this week to only $5 because of the holidays and level of the card, so if you want full analysis, you can find that in the link below.

Happy Thanksgiving everybody!

NEW TO MMA PREMIUM: I’ve decided to add my personal bets, betting breakdown videos and strategies to MMA Premium, which you can find in the link below.

If you want FULL BREAKDOWNS of every single fight on the card, projections, rankings and more, you can find that in the Premium Section here. We’ve also launched the MMA LINEUP BUILDER which you can access with my projections if you purchase the premium content.

Onto the fights!

CASH GAME PLAYS

1. Kelvin Gastelum, $9,000

After losing to GSP only a few weeks ago, Michael Bisping is being thrown right back into the fray against another top challenger in Kelvin Gastelum. I’m not overly concerned about the short notice aspect, but I am concerned about the weakening durability of Bisping.

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He was dropped and submitted by GSP, but he’s been rocked several times in recent fights, and Gastelum has the power and speed to give him trouble. Bisping will have a chance to win this fight no doubt, he will need to keep Gastelum at range and try to stick and move for 25 minutes. It’s possible, but even in that scenario I do not see Bisping finishing the fight.

That’s one of the main reasons I think Gastelum is the better cash game play for $9K. He’s a -300 favorite but his floor is very high, even in a loss he should still score quite a few points. He also has the potential to finish with an ITD line of -152.

Overall the Main Event is a very strong fight to target this week but my preferred play in cash games will be Gastelum.

2. Yan Xioanan, $7,900

To many, this is a very obvious spot to fade Kailin Curran, who has only won one of her six UFC fights. I’m not necessarily on that bandwagon, although I do think Xioanan will have an opportunity to get the win in her UFC debut.

More importantly, Xioanan is trending upward and is currently a -135 favorite, but she’s only priced at 7.9k. Curran is currently the underdog at +115 but is priced at 8.3k. Regardless of your personal opinion on the skill set of Curran, I like to target these odds discrepancies in cash games, as I think they provide long term value and safety.

I do think Xioanan will be popular and in tournaments I’m hesitant to pull the trigger as heavily, especially because her ITD line is only +290. But for 7.9k, as a moderate favorite, and with a relatively high floor I think Xioanan is a strong cash game play this weekend.

TOURNAMENT PLAYS

1. Bobby Nash, $9,100

The common theme of this card is that one side of the fight has a current UFC fighter who hasn’t been successful, and the other side has a UFC newcomer. And in most spots, the currently unsuccessful UFC fighter is a moderate to heavy favorite, which tells you the level of overall talent we are dealing with.

This is one of those cases, Bobby Nash is 0-2 in the UFC and has been knocked out in the second round in both of his fights, against Li Jingliang and Danny Roberts. To his credit, he actually won the first round in both of those fights.

Nash has a solid wrestling background and has definite power in his hands, but he lacks technique in certain spots that has left him vulnerable. His opponent this week is Kenan Song, who has an 12-4 overall record and has lost two consecutive fights. We rarely see that in the UFC. Song has been dropped multiple times, taken down with ease and he hasn’t looked great on the small amount of tape that I’ve seen.

I think that Nash has the ability to take him down frequently, which is good for DK scoring, but he also has the opportunity to land something heavy and win by TKO. Nash’s ITD line is -108, and he’s one of my favorite tournament targets this week.

2. Muslim Salikhov, $8,900

I’ll be targeting this fight between Muslim Salikhov and Alex Garcia in tournaments on both sides, but my preferred play is Salikhov for 8.9k. Salikhov is considered “The King of Kung Fu” and has won back-to-back fights by spinning back heel kick.

He does a lot of crazy stuff in the cage and has won 10 of his 13 professional fights by TKO. Garcia will pose problems for Salikhov in the wrestling and power departments, but Garcia also lacks speed and a gas tank. I think that Salikhov will have the opportunity to keep him at range and land something heavy that puts Garcia away.

It’s not the most confident pick in the world, I would absolutely like to see Salikhov fight a few times before I nail down what he’s capable of, but I’m also willing to take a chance on him in tournaments. He has one of the best ITD lines on the entire card at -139, and that’s enough upside for me to warrant an investment.

FADE OF THE WEEK

1. Shamil Abdurakhimov, $8,200

This is a tough call but someone who I think will be fairly popular that I am not as high on is Shamil Abdurakhimov. He’s fighting Chase Sherman, who many people don’t consider to be a great fighter, myself included.

Sherman has his flaws, but I actually think this fight sets up well enough for Sherman to either win, or limit the upside of Abdurakhimov. Sherman lands at a very high pace, while Abdurakhimov only lands at 2.48 sig. strikes per minute. Sherman has a granite chin, and I do not see Abdurakhimov being able to knock him out while standing.

The best chance for Abdurakhimov to meet value is by taking Sherman to the ground and submitting him. It’s possible, but Abdurakhimov has only landed takedowns in the UFC by catching kicks, and I think his overall wrestling game is limited. Sherman is likely athletic enough to defend takedowns and stretch the fight into the latter rounds.

Abdurakhimov has an ITD line of +199, which is strong enough to play at 8.2k, but my gut says he won’t meet value this week and I will either be underweight to him in this matchup, or I will fade him completely.

About the Author

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Brett Appley (bbbomb)

One of the top MMA minds in the DFS industry, Brett Appley a.k.a bbbomb has been writing his weekly “Beat Down” article for RotoGrinders since the sport launched on DraftKings in 2015. Brett has earned multiple Top 10 rankings in MMA since that time and has taken down a handful of tournaments as well.