UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Santos Quick Picks
Welcome back to another edition of the UFC Quick Picks!
We have a Saturday morning card this weekend which is always nice, though it’s a card mostly for the hardcore fans that will be taking place in Prague. The prize pools aren’t too bad, however, and we have an amazing card next weekend in UFC 235, so this is simply a slate to enjoy some fights over your morning coffee.
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Onto the fights!
Cash Game Plays
1. Michel Prazeres, 9.4k
The heaviest favorite on the slate at -440, Michel Prazeres will be costly but I think he’s a solid cash game option on this slate at 9.4k.
Prazeres has a career record of 26-2 and has never been finished, and he’s an extremely tough out for any opponent. He’ll be taking a 22-year-old newcomer from Austria by the name of Ismail Naurdiev, and the odds are he won’t be up to the challenge.
I actually don’t hate the skills or athleticism I see out of Naurdiev, but Prazeres is a literal tractor and should have a clear wrestling and submission grappling advantage, as well as strength. It seems fairly likely he’ll be able to take Naurdiev down and either control him or find a finish, and with an ITD line of -140, Prazeres clearly has upside.
There are many strong plays this weekend but Prazeres is one of the safest and in cash games I think he makes for a worthwhile target.
2. Damir Hadzovic, 7.4k
We often talk about value plays being a key to long term success in cash games and there is a clear value in Damir Hadzovic at 7.4k.
Hadzovic is actually a slight favorite at -115, meaning he holds about $700 worth of value on this slate. He’s not an elite talent and may have a tough challenge against Marco Polo Reyes, but based on that line he’s simply more likely to win than any other fighter in his surrounding price tier.
Hadzovic won’t have to worry about defending takedowns in this matchup either which has been a problem for him in the past, and he’ll be able to focus on his striking. He’s only landed 2.65 sig. strikes per minute but he’s technical and more defensively sound than Reyes and has upside as well.
In tournaments, you can certainly consider a fade given the ownership but in cash games it makes sense to take the easy value with Hadzovic at 7.4k.
Tournament Plays
1. Jan Blachowicz, 7.7k
Getting a piece of the Main Event is always useful in tournaments, given the five-round potential, but there’s clear upside this weekend between Jan Blachowicz and Thiago Santos.
The fight as a whole is -485 to end inside the distance and Blachowicz is actually a solid value with a -110 betting line at 7.7k. He’s much more defensively sound than Santos and should have the advantages late in the fight if he can survive.
I will absolutely be getting a piece of Santos as well, he has clear finishing upside, but it’s hard to argue against Blachowicz at that price. He also carries more wrestling and grappling upside, and with an overall ITD line of +130, I think Blachowicz is one of the stronger tournament options on the slate.
2. Chris Fishgold, 9k
Chris Fishgold checks many of the boxes that I use for targeting tournament options, he’s has wrestling upside, grappling upside and finishing upside.
He is priced up at 9k against Daniel Teymur and will probably need that finish to hit the optimal lineup, but with an ITD line of -130 I am willing to take a chance. Teymur is a striking specialist and he’ll be live while the fight takes place on the feet, but I doubt he can defend takedowns for 15 minutes.
Fishgold is a better wrestler and grappler and should have physical advantages as well. Teymur doesn’t have the best cardio and if Fishgold gets in top position, he may struggle to survive.
There’s always risk in tournaments but Fishgold has clear upside and finishing potential, and for 9k, I think he’s worth some exposure.
Fade of the Week
1. Rustam Khabilov, 8.7k
As a -145 favorite, Khabilov is not a fighter I plan to target at 8.7k on this slate.
He does have potential to wrestle, and that’s his strong suit, but he’s facing a world-class submission grappler in Diego Ferreira and even if he earns top position, I doubt he can do much with it.
That eliminates much of the upside Khabilov carries, and at 8.7k I don’t expect a decision to be enough. Khabilov doesn’t land strikes at a high rate and will likely be at a disadvantage while the fight stays standing, so we can’t count on volume from him either.
At 8.7k, there are just many other options I would rather target and ones with much higher upside, so Khabilov is going to be my fade of the week for those reasons.