UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Ngannou Quick Picks
Welcome back to another edition of the UFC Quick Picks!
This is a Fight Pass only card from Beijing, China that will be starting at 12 a.m. PST on Saturday. If you are up and watching this one, props to you!
I hope everyone has a very happy Thanksgiving and if you are playing this slate, I’ve listed some of my favorite plays below that will hopefully help win you some money on DraftKings.
If you want FULL BREAKDOWNS of every single fight on the card, projections, rankings and more, you can find that in the Premium Section here. We’ve also launched the MMA LINEUP BUILDER which you can access with my projections if you purchase the premium content.
Onto the fights!
Cash Game Plays
1. Song Yadong, 9.1k
There are five favorites with betting lines north of -400 this weekend, and Song Yadong is the cheapest at 9.1k which puts him squarely in play for me in cash games.
He also has high upside, with an ITD line of -155 against the newcomer Vince Morales. Yadong has been very impressive in his short UFC career and seems to have the skill and athleticism to compete at this level.
Morales is a solid boxer, but Yadong has a more-well rounded game and training at Team Alpha Male should help continue his development. I expect Yadong to be a popular target this weekend, but he’s one of the better cash game options on the slate and he makes sense as a target in any format.
2. Syuri Kondo, 6.8k
With the bulk of heavy favorites, it makes sense to consider punting in cash games with a fighter who can go the distance and put up a fair number of points. Syuri Kondo is a prime target to do so at 6.8k.
She’s a massive underdog at +350 against Yan Xionan but the fight as a whole is -350 to go 15 minutes. Kondo has landed 8.81 significant strikes per minute in her short career, which is obviously inflated, but it shows she is capable of landing at a high pace. If this fight goes the distance, I would expect Kondo to score 30 or more points, and at 6.8k, that’s more than enough to pay off in cash games.
Kondo is definitely not a must-play in any format, but if you are finding yourself looking for salary relief, know that punting with Kondo is more than an acceptable option.
Tournament Plays
1. Curtis Blaydes, 8.7k
The Main Event favorite always makes sense as a tournament target and this week we have Curtis Blaydes in a rematch against Francis Ngannou.
Blaydes lost to Ngannou in his UFC debut but the tides have turned and he looks more than capable of wrestling his way to victory this time around. The wrestling is also what makes Blaydes a very strong DraftKings target in any bout, he lands 6.82 takedowns per 15 minutes and 4.2 significant strikes per minute.
For the price of 8.7k, with five rounds of potential, I fully expect Blaydes to end up on the optimal lineup if he can earn the win. Plus his ITD line of -135 signifies his upside in terms of finishing the fight as well.
He will be a popular play, but Blaydes is one of the top tournament options on the slate.
2. Kevin Holland, 9.5k
The most expensive fighter on the slate this weekend is Kevin Holland at 9.5k, taking on John Phillips.
Phillips is a solid power boxer and could theoretically give Holland trouble in that area, but Phillips has terrible takedown defense and a weak submission grappling game. Holland comes in as a heavy favorite not because he’s the most talented fighter in the world, but because Phillips is so susceptible to being exposed on the mat.
If Holland can get this fight down, he should be able to use his brown belt in jiu-jitsu to advance position and find a finish. With an ITD line of -170, Holland is an elite tournament option on this slate, if you can afford him.
Fade of the Week
1. Weili Zhang, 9.3k
There are many strong options in the top tier of pricing and Weili Zhang is one of them. She’s a -470 favorite with an ITD line of +255. Honestly, if you want to target Zhang, go ahead.
But at 9.3k, with other heavy favorites surrounding her, you will need a massive score. And I don’t think it’s likely she not only finishes her opponent Jessica Aguilar but also scores more than fighters like Holland, Xionan, Mueller, Yadong, Blaydes, Smolka and more.
She’s just a bit too expensive for my liking and although I am picking her to win, I won’t have much exposure to her on DraftKings.