UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Dillashaw
Cash Game Plays
1. Gregor Gillespie, 9.4k
A former D1 National Champion wrestler, Gregor Gillespie is one of the best DraftKings plays in the sport, and he’ll certainly be in my cash game lineup this weekend at 9.4k.
Gillespie has landed more than seven takedowns per 15 minutes and advances position approx. 1.5 times per takedown landed. He’s averaged 120 points in five UFC bouts with three consecutive topping 128 points.
He’s a massive -550 favorite this weekend against Yancy Medeiros with a -165 ITD prop. With that potential to wrestle, he has a fantastic floor and ceiling, and he makes for an elite play in all formats.
But for cash games, safety is the ultimate priority, and given he’s the biggest favorite on the slate with an elite grappling pedigree, he’s the first fighter I am plugging in.
2. TJ Dillashaw, 8.9k
The Main Event is always a fight I am looking to target in cash games, given its potential to go a full 25 minutes.
The favorite this week is TJ Dillashaw who is dropping down to 125 lbs. to fight Henry Cejudo for the belt. He’s a -210 favorite with a +170 ITD prop, and the combination of floor and ceiling make him a strong cash game target at 8.9k.
Cejudo’s primary path to victory has always been the takedown, but Dillashaw defends at 86 percent and is a very strong scrambler and grappler of his own. Dillashaw also lands 5.38 significant strikes per minute, and should have major advantages over Cejudo who only lands 3.42 per minute.
Unless Cejudo blitzes Dillashaw out of the gate with a KO, I expect Dillashaw to put up a strong performance and pay off his price tag. And for 8.9k, I am more than happy to target Dillashaw in my cash game lineups.
Tournament Plays
1. Gregy Hardy, 9.5k
Former NFL star Greg Hardy is in the UFC, and the promotion is setting him up to have a big night in its debut on ESPN+.
Hardy is a -550 favorite over Alan Crowder as the co-main event, and has an ITD line of -350. He also has a -230 line to Win in Round 1, which is insanely high.
It should be noted that Hardy is only 3-0 professionally and doesn’t have the skill of a complete UFC fighter. He’s not very good. But he is a great athlete, with elite power, training at a great camp in ATT.
All of his wins have come in the first minute, and I think there’s a real chance he knocks Crowder out early in this spot. That’s a recipe to score well on DraftKings, and if we’re focusing on upside, Hardy has to be considered one of the top overall tournament plays on the slate.
2. Alexander Hernandez, 8.6k
In two UFC fights, Alexander Hernandez has shined, knocking out Beneil Dariush and taking a decision against Olivier Aubin-Mercier.
He now gets Donald Cerrone in this spotlight fight, who is dropping back down to Lightweight after a long stint at Welterweight. It’s another matchup where I feel the need to state that Cerrone is a more skilled fighter than Hernandez and obviously has elite-level experience.
But Cerrone has also fought 45 times professionally and is reaching the end of his career. Hernandez is only 26 years old and an elite athlete with power and capable wrestling. I don’t think Cerrone is out of this fight by any means, but I do think Hernandez has DraftKings upside for his price of 8.6k.
He fights at such a high pace that he’ll have some chance of finishing Cerrone early, or landing takedowns throughout 15 minutes. Either method of victory should give him a solid score for 8.6k, and in tournaments, I’m willing to take some chances on the kid.
Fade of the Week
1. Joseph Benavidez, 9k
Coming off a TKO against Alex Perez, Joseph Benavidez is a solid favorite against Dustin Ortiz and carries a 9k price tag with him.
It’s a rematch of a fight he’s already won, and it’s a good stylistic matchup for him. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him repeat with another win here.
But he’s never been an elite DraftKings scorer, and he’s priced above guys like Dillashaw and Hernandez, and below fighters like Sandhagen, Gillespie and Hardy. For Benavidez to reach the optimal, he needs a massive score and some help.
I’m not willing to make a big investment in Benavidez at that price given the fighters in the surrounding price tier. If he were cheaper, maybe, but at 9k I’m comfortable making him my fade of the week because even with a strong win, he’s not likely to kill you.