UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Edwards Quick Picks
Welcome back to another edition of the UFC Quick Picks. We have a very early morning card this week in Singapore, starting at 1:30 a.m. PST, but as they say, there is still money to be won on DraftKings and that’s what we’re here for.
If you want FULL BREAKDOWNS of every single fight on the card, projections, rankings and more, you can find that in the Premium Section here. We’ve also launched the MMA LINEUP BUILDER which you can access with my projections if you purchase the premium content.
Onto the fights!
Cash Game Plays
1. Petr Yan, $9,300
There is no clear cut top option on this slate in my opinion, which is a change from the past several events. The top two fighters in terms of odds are Jake Matthews at -535 and Petr Yan at -525.
My preferred play as of now is Yan, who is making his UFC debut against Teruto Ishihara. There’s always a risk in that sense, but I feel like Yan is a legitimate prospect and I expect him to be superior in every aspect of the game.
I’m not positive if he will come in with a boxing-based game plan, or look to wrestle given Ishihara’s weaknesses, but he should be able to control the fight with whatever game plan he chooses. Ishihara is a very limited wrestler and a predictable striker who relies on his left hand, and Yan is just more developed and varied. There is safety in his odds and I think he’s a strong cash play at 9.3k.
2. Leon Edwards, $8,600
Regardless of who you favor in the main event, I think Leon Edwards is the superior cash game play. Of course the fight is slated for five rounds, so that alone makes the main event valuable in cash games.
His opponent Donald Cerrone is +325 to win inside the distance, meaning there’s a very strong chance Edwards wins or least makes it the full five rounds. He doesn’t strike at the highest rate, but he’s landed 1.52 takedowns per 15 minutes. I wouldn’t expect him to hold Cerrone down for long periods of time, but he’s going to land multiple takedowns over the course of 25 minutes.
Plus Edwards has an ITD line of +122, indicating high-finishing upside. For 8.6k, I think Edwards is a very strong cash game play and he will be in my lineup this weekend.
Tournament Plays
1. Ulka Sasaki, $9,000
Normally we aren’t used to seeing Ulka Sasaki as a favorite, but he comes in near -300 against Jenel Lausa.
Sasaki is a submission grappling specialist and normally has trouble getting the fight on the mat where he has his biggest advantage. But that’s also because he’s faced fighters like Wilson Reis and Jussier Formiga and Justin Scoggins.
Lausa has shown weakness to giving up the takedown and he’s not a strong submission grappler, so if Sasaki does land takedowns, he should be in a strong position to advance and look for a choke. At 9k, it’s a tough pill to swallow but that’s what makes this a tournament option.
Sasaki has an ITD line of -114 which is one of the best on the card, and given that wrestlers and grapplers score the best on DraftKings, there’s no arguing with Sasaki’s upside. I’m willing to take some risks on him in tournaments hoping he can lock up a choke within the first round or two.
2. Song Yadong, $7,900
There’s not much data to go on for this one, Song Yadong has only fought in the UFC once and he won by submission early in the first round. What we do have data on is his opponent Felipe Arantes.
Arantes has a decent kicking game, a strong submission grappling game, and that’s about it. He’s given up dozens of takedowns and often taking a beating while the fight stays standing. He’s coming off a loss to Josh Emmett where he was knocked down on several occasions.
I’m not positive whether Yadong can put on a similar performance, but I don’t trust Arantes at all and Yadong comes in below the mid-range at 7.9k, with odds to win of -105.
He’s also been training at Team Alpha Male, the same camp Emmett comes from and they’ve also had teammate Andre Fili fight and beat Arantes. I’m hoping this camp can help guide Yadong to a proper game plan, and I think he has fight-winning potential. For 7.9k, especially in tournaments I’m more than willing to get exposure to Yadong and hope he can pass the Fight IQ test that Arantes provides.
Fade of the Week
1. Viviane Pereira, $8,800
Of all the fighters in the top range this week, Viviane Pereira is my least favorite option and she’s priced up at 8.8k. Her odds to win have drifted downward to -165, so she’s overpriced to begin with.
Her upside is also very limited, she fights at a slow pace and doesn’t attempt many takedowns. I find it unlikely that she can score more than 80 points in a win, and her odds to finish are very poor at +617.
There’s a good chance that she gets the job done here and wins an ugly low-scoring decision, but that’s not something I want to invest in at 8.8k. She’s one of the easier fades this weekend.