UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Medeiros Quick Picks
Welcome back to the UFC Quick Picks! We are still on a fire stretch of cards that will continue until we hit UFC 222 in early March. This week is a UFC Austin card headlined by the “Cowboy” Donald Cerrone himself.
We don’t see the major prize pools that come with a PPV but make no mistake, there is still plenty of money to be won on DraftKings, and I’ve provided a few of my favorite plays below to help you get started.
If you want FULL BREAKDOWNS of every single fight on the card, projections, rankings and more, you can find that in the Premium Section here. We’ve also launched the MMA LINEUP BUILDER which you can access with my projections if you purchase the premium content.
Onto the fights!
Cash Game Plays
1. Alex Morono, $8,800
It’s unfortunate, but Joshua Burkman has been put into that category of fighter who should no longer be competing at the UFC level. He’s fought in 44 professional bouts during a 15-year span, and it seems his durability and athleticism are fading.
Burkman has only won one of his last eight fights, and has been finished on two consecutive occasions. Going forward, Burkman is someone who the community will likely target against, and so his opponent Alex Morono becomes an obvious target this weekend.
I was expecting Morono to be priced up significantly which would have made the choice complicated, but instead we get him at a discount at only 8.8k. He’s right in line with the heaviest favorites on the card at -290, and I don’t see a reason to pass on him in cash games.
2. Yancy Medeiros, $7,800
I’m expecting Yancy Medeiros to be the chalk of the slate this weekend at only 7.8k in the main event against Donald Cerrone. Honestly, I think this is a good stylistic matchup for Cerrone to take advantage of, and I will have my fair share of him in tournaments. But the questions surrounding his durability still need to be answered, and a large percentage of the public is confident that Cerrone is shot.
Regardless, Medeiros seems like an obvious cash game target to me for that price. He’s not likely to get finished in the first round or two, and he strikes at a high enough volume that he can pay off his cash-game salary even in a loss. If Medeiros wins and you don’t have him in cash games, it’s going to be very tough to come back in my opinion.
I’d personally rather take Medeiros, or stack him and Cerrone together in cash games, and work from there. You can lock in a large number of points that way and not have to worry which side comes out on top. However if I am choosing just one, in cash games, it’s going to be Medeiros for the price.
Tournament Plays
1. Sage Northcutt, $9,200
I know, I know, it’s probably not a smart thing to trust Sage Northcutt. But, I think he has enough upside worth targeting in tournaments.
Mostly, I think this is a strong stylistic matchup for him, a fight with Thibault Gouti that should remain standing, and the majority of Northcutt’s issues have come when the fight hits the mat. Northcutt controlled range and distance with ease in his last bout and looked more confident than ever coming off a training camp with Team Alpha Male. The kid is only 21 years old now, he’s clearly making improvements.
Gouti is also one of the worst fighters in the division, which the UFC knows and is purposefully setting him up here. Gouti has been rocked badly by non-power punchers on multiple occasions, and that’s what I’m really focusing on. Northcutt is more athletic, faster, more powerful than Gouti and Gouti has shown a weak chin. The combination of those factors lead me to believe he has a legitimate chance to win via an early knockout.
Those reasons are enough for me to pull the trigger on the kid one more time in hopes that he reaches the upside we’ve seen in previous flashes.
2. Brandon Davis, $8,700
I was burned targeting Brandon Davis only three weeks ago in his UFC debut, I loved the style he fought with, his high-volume striking game and will to win. He racked up a ton of points on Dana White’s Tuesday Night Contender Series and I was hoping we’d see similar flashes against Kyle Bochniak.
But no dice, Bochniak came in with a great game plan and never stood in front of Davis. It wasn’t a good stylistic matchup. Now Davis gets a newcomer in Steven Peterson, a tough-as-nails fighter who always gets hit and doesn’t care one bit. He pressures constantly like Davis and is more than willing to stand and trade.
I can’t be super confident in Davis after the debut, but I think this is a much better stylistic matchup, and we could see fireworks. I would expect the winner of this fight to score well regardless simply based on how high of a pace this fight will take place at. My lean is still with Davis though, I think he’s the better striker and still has an athletic advantage. I will be giving him one more shot in tournaments this weekend.
Fade of the Week
1. James Vick, $9,000
Going out on a limb here with a fade call on James Vick, it could easily blow up in my face and I expect him to be very popular. He’s a fun fighter to watch no doubt, but I still have long-term concerns.
Most notably I don’t like the fact that he can’t control where the fight takes place, he doesn’t have strong defensive wrestling and he almost never lands takedowns of his own. That means he’s stuck fighting in the areas where his opponents want the fight.
He’s taking on a longtime veteran Francisco Trinaldo this weekend, someone who can strike, who can wrestle and who has experience. I would have no problem with Vick as a small favorite but he’s priced up significantly at 9k. Combined with a potentially high ownership, I would just rather take chances on less owned fighters in his surrounding price range.