UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Oliveira Beat Down
It may not be the best card from the average fan’s perspective but who are we kidding, there is money to be made on DraftKings, so let’s get started!
In case you missed it, DraftKings acquired Kountermove and its 30k users, which I think is a great sign for those who play MMA on DraftKings. Not only should there be an increase in volume in the coming months, but I think it’s likely that DK ramps up its contests, and potentially throws a live final into the mix.
There were too many lineup changes this week for me to commit five paragraphs to each fight, so I broke down the main card and gave my short analysis on the undercard. If you have any questions, please comment below or follow me on Twitter at BrettAppley and at DailyFanMMA.
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MAIN CARD
Donald Cerrone vs. Alex Oliveira
Fight Odds: Cerrone -325, Oliveira +265
Odds to finish: -300
Salaries: Cerrone 10.6k, Oliveira 8.8k
Weight Class: 170
Surprise, surprise, Donald Cerrone is back in the main event, this time against “The Brazilian Cowboy” Alex Oliveira. Now, I’m a fan of Oliveira, I think he’s talented and has some upside in the UFC but I’m just not sure a fight against the much more experienced Cerrone is the best thing for him.
Cerrone is coming off the quick title fight loss to Rafael Dos Anjos and he’s moved up to the 170 lb division for this fight, mostly for fun. Normally I would question whether fighting this fast off a huge disappointing loss is good for a fighter, but I really believe Cerrone doesn’t care much about the belt. He just loves fighting that much.
Oliveira is coming off two impressive finishes against Piotr Hallmann and KJ Noons, but again, Cerrone is a much different animal. I think Oliveira is best served as a kick boxer in the UFC, but he’s still green with technique and hasn’t shown the highest fight IQ. Even though he’ll have a bit of a reach advantage against Cerrone, I don’t expect him to get the better of the striking battle.
As Cerrone gets into a groove, his muay-thai shines, and Oliveria doesn’t strike enough to keep pace with him, especially in a five round fight. If the fight goes to the ground, I think Cerrone would be a huge advantage and has a legit chance to submit the Brazilian.
From a DFS perspective I’m going to be heavy on Cerrone this weekend, I just think this is too good of a matchup for him not to pay off the price. I like Oliveira for cash games as usual because if he can drag the fight out, he’s capable of putting up 40 points in a loss. I just don’t think he has the same upside as Cerrone though and I will probably avoid him in tournaments.
Fight Prediction: Cerrone by RNC, RD 3
Derek Brunson vs. Roan Carneiro
Fight Odds: Brunson -420, Carneiro +335
Odds to finish: -150
Salaries: Brunson 11.1k, Carneiro 8.3k
Weight Class: 185
Derek Brunson may be expensive but he’s a great target this week against Roan Carneiro. Brunson has won five of his last six and several in impressive fashion, including a knockout over “Smilin” Sam Alvey.
Carneiro is a good fighter, especially on the ground, but I don’t consider him to be in the same class as Brunson. If Carneiro can get the fight to the ground, he’ll have a chance to work for a submission, but I don’t find that likely. Brunson is too solid of a wrestler and his advantage on the feet should play out clearly in this fight.
From a DFS perspective, I consider Brunson a very safe cash game play with upside. He’s in play for tournaments too but the finish isn’t a guarantee. I’m not a fan of Carneiro in this matchup so I’ll probably stick with the favorite and pass on the underdog.
Fight Prediction: Brunson by TKO, RD 1
Cody Garbrandt vs. Augusto Mendes
Fight Odds: Garbrandt -365, Mendes +305
Odds to finish: -180
Salaries: Garbrandt 11k, Mendes 8.4k
Weight Class: 135
Add me to the list of fans who are dissapointed that John Lineker pulled out of this fight, but I’m glad Cody Garbrandt gets another opponent because that’s what he really wanted.
Augusto Mendes is a high, high-level jiu-jitsu player outside of MMA and he’s always going to be a threat for a sub in the Octagon. He’s a capable boxer as well but I give Garbrandt the distinct advantage. Garbrandt is a very strong striker with a defensive wrestling game to give many opponents fits, which include Mendes. Especially on short notice, Garbrandt is the clear favorite in my mind over Mendes.
Similarly to Brunson, Garbrandt is expensive and I consider him a safe cash game play. He has upside just like Brunson, and picking between the two could potentially decide many lineups.
I think Mendes is worth a look in GPPs only because of his high pedigree BJJ, but I do not expect him to win.
Fight Prediction: Garbrandt by TKO, RD 2
Dennis Bermudez vs. Tatsuya Kawajiri
Fight Odds: Bermudez -370, Kawajiri +310
Odds to finish: +110
Salaries: Bermudez 10.8k, Kawajiri 8.6k
Weight Class: 145
Dennis Bermudez is still one of my favorites to watch in the 145 lb. division and he’s rarely in a non-exciting fight. I think Tatsuya Kawajiri might test that theory.
Both Bermudez and Kawajiri are very strong wrestlers and that plays heavily into their individual attacks. Kawajiri especially relies on his offensive wrestling to get the fight to the floor and look for submissions. Bermudez has shown an incredible takedown defense in the UFC at nearly 93 percent, and I don’t expect Kawajiri to be successful on that front.
I also think Kawajiri has strong enough wrestling defense to avoid the majority of shots from Bermudez, and I expect this fight to play primarily on the feet. The biggest concern for Bermudez is his chin in that regard, as he’s been hurt in almost every fight, which has led to finishes as of late. With that said, I’m not too concerned with Kawajiri’s stand up, and I would be very surprised if he lands the same damage as a guy like Jeremy Stephens did.
Offensively, Bermudez fights at a much higher pace and strikes at a much higher output and I think that’s going to be the deciding factor. With the wrestling neutralized, this should lead to Bermudez dictating the course of the fight and I think he’ll be in control for the majority.
I’m not loving the matchup from a DFS perspective because there are guys priced near Bermudez I’m more confident in finishing, but I think he’s a sneaky play as his ownership should be low.
Fight Prediction: Bermudez by Decision
Chris Camozzi vs. Joe Riggs
Fight Odds: Camozzi -265, Riggs +225
Odds to finish: +115
Salaries: Camozzi 10.5k, Riggs 8.9k
Weight Class: 185
Ugh, the fact that this fight is on the main card says a lot about the card itself. Broken down simply, Joe Riggs will want to get this fight to the ground and wrestle his way to a decision.
Chris Camozzi will want to keep the fight standing and strike his way to a decision or late finish. Camozzi doesn’t have much takedown defense and I think it’s possible Riggs can get the fight down, but I don’t think he’ll be able to do it consistently enough to win the fight.
Riggs is super old at this point in fight years and accruing a random mid-fight injury is a legit concern for him. Camozzi should also be the bigger and longer fighter which will make securing the takedown more difficult for Riggs.
I’m not confident in this pick persay, but I think Camozzi is in play in cash games and GPPs. In a decision he should land enough strikes to put up a moderate score and I think the upside is there. It won’t be one of my heavier targets but I think Camozzi warrants some exposure.
Fight Prediction: Camozzi by Decision
James Krause vs. Shane Campbell
Fight Odds: Krause -135, Campbell +115
Odds to finish: -160
Salaries: Krause 10.1k, Campbell 9.3k
Weight Class: 155
This fight between James Krause and Shane Campbell is extremely difficult to break down, it’s a very close fight and I’m not super fond of it from a DFS perspective.
I think it’s debatable who has the striking edge in this fight, although I consider Campbell to have the more diverse and potent finishing game. Even though it looks awkward, Campbell’s wrestling may be better as well, even though Krause is coming off an impressive stoppage against Daron Cruickshank.
I’m hardpressed to believe that this fight finishes quickly if at all, but I like Campbell as the better play. I think he’s the more likely of the two to get a finish and I’m going to take him to get the overall victory.
Fight Prediction: Campbell by Decision
UNDERCARD NOTES
Alex Garcia vs. Sean Strickland
I’m not super high on this fight as a whole, I think it’s pretty difficult to read and likely lasts a while. Both fighters can finish but both are tough as nails, and I wouldn’t be shocked to see a slower pace than expected. I like Sean Strickland to take the win but it’s not a fight I’d bet on.
Daniel Sarafian vs. Oluwale Bamgbose
This fight, I am super high on. I think it’s very likely that either of these two end up on a winning tournament lineup. I’m much higher on Daniel Sarafian because he should have a distinct ground advantage, and I think he can get the fight on the mat. Oluwale Bamgbose is a talented fighter but he’s very green and I think Sarafian can take advantage of that. Still, I don’t count Bamgbose out and I’ll have plenty of exposure to both in tournaments.
Anthony Smith vs. Leonardo Leleco
This is my sneaky fight of the night, I think it’s possible we see a first round finish and most likely from Anthony Smith. Both fighters are making their UFC debuts, but I think Smith is the better fighter, he’s coming off an impressive first round TKO over UFC veteran Josh Neer. I also think he’s more technical, which sometimes doesn’t matter. Leleco is wild and worth a play as well, but I’m much higher on Smith.
Jonavin Webb vs. Nathan Coy
I don’t love this fight from a fantasy perspective. I think there will be too much grappling to yield the high scores without a quick finish. I think Jonavin Webb takes the fight in a decision.
Marion Reneau vs. Ashlee Evans-Smith
I think both Marion Reneau and Ashlee Evans-Smith are worth plays this weekend, although they aren’t in my top tier. Evans-Smith is a live dog in my opinion, even though she may not score a ton of points in a win. Reneau is the more likely of the two to finish and she’ll probably come through with the win. It’s hard fight to judge but I think there’s fantasy value here.
Lauren Murphy vs. Kelly Faszholz
Lauren Murphy should get the win here but I can’t pay the price when there are much more likely finishers near her. Kelly Faszholz is pretty green but Vegas really likes this fight to go to a decision, and I think she’s worth a punt play especially in cash games.
Anthony Hamilton vs. Shamil Abdurakhimov
Heavyweight MMA=Target in GPPS.
Hamilton is bigger and the better wrestler but will he get the fight to the ground? Who knows. My gut says yes he will and he’ll get a finish but Abdurakhimov could keep it on the fight and probably KO Hamilton as well. I don’t think this is a must play but Vegas likes it to finish and both fighters are cheap enough warrant tournament exposure.