UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Till Quick Picks
Welcome to the UFC Gdansk Picks!
We get an early morning Fight Pass card this weekend, but the good news this is only the start of the final 2017 MMA Rush. There are 11 events in the next 11 weeks, and the cards just get better and better! For now, let’s enjoy this card and make some money!
If you want FULL BREAKDOWNS of every single fight on the card, projections, rankings and more, you can find that in the Premium Section here. We’ve also launched the MMA LINEUP BUILDER which you can access with my projections if you purchase the premium content.
Onto the fights!
Cash Game Plays
1. Donald Cerrone, 8.5k
This is more about the price than anything else, I am very comfortable locking Donald Cerrone into my cash games for 8.5k this week. He’s facing Darren Till, a young prospect taking a huge step up in competition in his first main event.
Till is fairly inactive on the feet, and he’ll likely need a quick knockout to pay off his price. That outcome is reasonable enough to target Till in some tournament lineups for 7.7k, but I prefer Cerrone in all formats, including cash games.
Cerrone lands 4.23 significant strikes per minute and I expect him to pepper away with leg kicks and jabs, and eventually land a takedown or two. He’s fighting in a five-round main event, and that raises his floor. He’s a strong play this weekend.
2. Marcin Held, 9.4k
I don’t think there’s a lock in cash games at the top tier this week, and I really can’t say anyone above 9k is a bad play. My favorite cash target at the moment is Marcin Held for 9.4k. He’s 0-3 in the UFC and taking on a 22-year-old newcomer in his home country of Poland, and he desperately needs the win here.
Held is generally a grappling dependent fighter, and landed four takedowns with 11 passes in two rounds in his last fight. If he can match anything similar to that level of production, even in a three round decision win, he should pay off his price in cash games. And I don’t think his opponent Nasrat Haqparast is dangerous enough to finish the fight.
For what it’s worth, Haqparast is a talented youngster and he might be worth a shot in tournaments as a deep flier, and also as a hedge to cash games. But overall, Held is -400 to win and -130 to win inside the distance, and I think he makes for a solid cash play.
Tournament Plays
1. Warlley Alves, 9.2k
Originally Warlley Alves was supposed to fight Jim Wallhead, but that fight was scrapped and the UFC called up Salim Touahri on very short notice. I don’t think Touahri is quite ready for the UFC, but regardless, this is a very tough challenge against Alves.
Although Alves is coming off two consecutive losses, they were both against tough opponents, and there’s little reason to believe Touahri is capable the same performance. Alves has the best odds to finish on the card at -150, and I think he has a strong advantage in the wrestling/grappling department. We could very well see a takedown, some passes and an early finish, which means Alves has very high upside.
Alves is one of a few main GPP targets at the top end I am considering and I definitely think you should target him in some lineups.
2. Devin Clark, 8.4k
I have fond memories of Devin Clark, he came through in a big way against Jake Collier and I think he’s in a very similar spot this week against Jan Blachowicz. Clark is primarily a wrestler, which we like, and has the upside to land five takedowns, along with a handful of passes and significant strikes. He’s not necessarily in play for a finish, but he doesn’t need one at 8.4k.
The one concern I always have with Clark is his chin, he was knocked out very awkwardly in his UFC debut, and I won’t be surprised when that bug bites him again. But we can’t ignore his upside. Blachowicz has technique on the feet, but he’s also been taken down by everyone who wants him down. He was taken down 11 times in his last three losses.
Blachowicz also doesn’t have the cardio to go a hard three rounds, and Clark does. There’s a strong chance Clark rinses and repeats with takedowns and I want exposure to him in tournaments.
Fade of the Week
1. Karolina Kowalkiewicz, 9.5k
She’s the heaviest favorite on the card, and I don’t mind her in cash games, but I won’t have much exposure to Karolina Kowalkiewicz in tournaments. The most important reason is her price, she’s just tough to pay up for at 9.5k.
She also has and ITD line of +295, which is much worse than everyone else in the top tier. Kowalkiewicz doesn’t wrestle, so we’re really counting on her significant strike output. Against Heather Jo Clark she landed nearly 120 sig. strikes, which would still score less than 100 total points in a decision.
I prefer Held, Alves, Emmett and Piechota in tournaments if I am paying up.