UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Lee Quick Picks
Welcome to another edition of the UFC Quick Picks! This is the final card before a one-week break, which leads into the best month of the year and UFC Fight week, which has back-to-back cards on July 6-7. It should be a great month, but until then, we have a nice taster this week at UFC Oklahoma City.
If you want FULL BREAKDOWNS of every single fight on this card, projections, rankings and more, you can find that in the Premium Section here. We’ve also launched the Beta version of the MMA LINEUP BUILDER which you can access with my projections if you purchase the premium content.
Myself and h3budda also broke down the card in full on Grinders Live, which can be found here.
Cash Game Plays
1. Darrell Horcher, $9,200
Darrell Horcher has only fought once in the UFC, a short-notice bout against Khabib Nurmagomedov that was a fairly one-sided loss. A month later, Horcher was in a horrific motorcycle accident that tore up both his knees, among other things.
Now he comes into his sophomore fight as the heaviest favorite on the card at -420, which says a lot about his opponent Devin Powell. The one thing Powell has going for him is toughness, but other than that, he’s not a UFC-level fighter, which is why the odds are staggered toward Horcher. Although he’s expensive, there’s still some value in his price and I think Horcher has one of the best floors on the card.
I don’t think he’s a lock to finish, but Horcher should march forward and land strikes, and pick up his first UFC win. I think he’s a strong cash game play for those reasons.
2. Tim Means, $9,000
Coming off an ugly loss to Alex Oliveira, I think Tim Means is set up well to rebound against Alex Garcia. It’s a fairly similar style matchup, Garcia will need to get the takedowns to win this fight, but he’s not as fluid of a submission grappler and has notable cardio issues.
Means can still scramble well and will push the pace continually, and I think he’ll carry a strong advantage on the feet. He comes in with one of the best finish props on the card at -150 and fights at a super-high pace, which should raise his floor in a win. He may get taken down early, but I don’t think Garcia can keep it up for three rounds and I expect Means to take over, and hopefully earn a finish.
Tournament Plays
1. Marvin Vettori, $9,100
We always look for fighters with potential to grapple and finish the fight, and I think Marvin Vettori has that potential in this fight against Vitor Miranda. He’s still a young kid, 23 years old, and constantly improving.
His last fight was against Antonio Carlos Junior, a world champion submission grappler, and Vettori fared pretty well, which tells me he should have a big advantage on the ground against Miranda. Chris Camozzi and others have been able to takedown Miranda, and Vettori is more skilled and fights at a higher pace.
There are still weaknesses in his game, but Miranda will need to keep range and strike to win this fight, and I’m not confident he can do that. Vettori shouldn’t be super popular, but he carries an ITD prop of +120 and I think he has the upside we want in tournaments.
2. Justine Kish, $7,900
This is kindof a flier, I’m not super confident Justine Kish wins this bout against Felice Herrig, but I do like her price tag of 7.9k. More importantly, I’m confident Kish will go out there and brawl at a high pace for three rounds, or until someone is finished.
There aren’t many dogs with a great chance to finish and I don’t think Kish will either, so fighting at a high pace is the next best thing. She’s strong and aggressive, and I think that will give Herrig trouble on defense. There should also be several ground exchanges in this fight which means the overall fantasy total should be pretty high.
I like Kish as tournament play because I think she’s a live dog and one who could pay off her moderate price tag.
Fade of the Week
1. Carla Esparza, $8,900
There aren’t really many high-priced fighters I’m dying to fade, but Carla Esparza comes the closest. She’s a pure wrestler which is obviously good for DraftKings, but she’s not a great striker or a dominant athlete, and I think that limits her upside.
At best, she lands a handful of takedowns and maybe grapples her way to 90 points, which would be great. But there’s also a chance she lands three or less takedowns, and only a few passes, in which case she’s unlikely to reach 90. At her price tag, she really needs a strong score to end up on winning tournament lineups, especially with high-level plays surrounding her.
She also carries an ITD prop of +375, which isn’t good for her price. I expect a close, competitive win from Esparza but I’m not expecting a GPP-winning performance.