UFC Fight Night: Cyborg vs. Lansberg

Hello friends, thanks for joining me for another edition of the UFC Beat Down! I’m happy to be able to get this blog out Wednesday night because DraftKings actually released the salaries Tuesday morning, so hopefully we see more of that in the future.

There are still some pricing “errors” on this card but for the most part, it’s pretty accurate. Cyborg is 13k which makes her incredibly difficult to roster in a balanced lineup, but wow, she’s basically a lock for 100 points if she’s healthy. The last I heard, she had to cut 24 pounds in four days, so please make sure to stay updated on her weight cut.

We should be releasing an episode of The Daily Fantasy MMA Podcast later this week, so follow me on Twitter at BrettAppley and at DailyFanMMA to watch it live and for all the details.

Onto the fights!

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Cris Cyborg vs. Lina Lansberg

Fight Odds: Cyborg -1300, Lansberg +850
Odds to finish: -1610
Salaries: Cyborg 13k, Lansberg 6.4k
Weight Class: 140

Cris Cyborg, considered by most to be the top p4p female in the world, is fighting for the second time in the UFC at a catchweight of 140 lbs., against another debuting opponent in Lina Lansberg.

The odds on this fight are insanely high, but not necessarily too high, as Cyborg is a -1300 favorite, with an ITD prop of -750. Those numbers are incredible and make Cyborg an obvious play in all formats, but she carries a tough price tag of 13k. It’s one of the highest tags we’ve ever seen on DraftKings, but that doesn’t necessarily put her out of play.

Whether it takes less than round, and Cyborg wins by knockout, or takes a few rounds before a finish materializes, I expect Cyborg to score 100 points or more. She strikes at an extremely high rate and is super aggressive, and her floor is higher than anyone else on the card.

I still want to find a way to fit her in cash games, even if it means rostering Lansberg in a stack. Yes, I’m serious. Lansberg is 6.4k, and I think she can last a few minutes. DraftKings priced this card much more accurately so there’s not a great chance you’ll get four or five victories on one team, meaning you’ll likely take a loss or two. I’m fine with one of those losses being Lansberg at 6.4k, because it will allow me to fit in another heavy favorite or two.

In tournaments, I think many people will opt to play a combination of Nelson, Santos and Barao which I think is fine, but that means Cyborg will be lower owned than you might expect. She probably will force you onto some lower priced fighters, but I’ll definitely have shares of her in tournaments. There are several other great finishing spots on this card, but Cyborg is nearly a lock for 100 points, and that’s tough to fade completely.

Fight Prediction: Cyborg by TKO, RD 1

Renan Barao vs. Phillipe Nover

Fight Odds: Barao -460, Nover +365
Odds to finish: -115
Salaries: Barao 11.3k, Nover 8.1k
Weight Class: 145

It’s a laughable matchup, but Renan Barao gets Phillipe Nover in the co-main event, in a fight he has no excuse to lose. The odds are indicative of a lopsided fight, but they could even be higher.

Nover is a very limited striker, with no significant power, and I don’t think he’ll have much success on the feet. Barao is more powerful, more technical and more diverse. There’s talk of how Barao has a weak chin, but I’d be absolutely shocked if Nover can test that.

Where Nover is strong is on the ground, but I think Barao is better. Barao has a near 100 percent takedown defense rate, and the last time he was taken down was in the WEC in 2010, and that’s not a joke. Nover isn’t a great wrestler and I expect Barao to keep this fight standing if he wants to. Barao has also shown some decent offensive wrestling, so I wouldn’t be shocked to see him look to grapple a bit.

On DraftKings, Barao is expensive at 11.3k, but he’s in the range with Stevie Ray, Roy Nelson and Thiago Santos, so he’s up for grabs if you want him. Honestly, Barao has looked a bit tentative lately and I don’t think he’s as likely to finish as the others in his range, but he has a massive skill advantage in this fight so I can’t really say I’d be surprised to see him finish at any time.

I actually think he makes for a decent contrarian play off of Nelson and Santos, who I expect to be much more popular. I have no interest in Nover at his price as I expect this to be a one-sided affair for as long as it lasts.

Fight Prediction: Barao by Decision

Roy Nelson vs. Bigfoot Silva

Fight Odds: Nelson -450, Silva +360
Odds to finish: -580
Salaries: Nelson 11.5k, Silva 7.9k
Weight Class: HW

Oh boy, where to begin with this one. I honestly have zero, I MEAN ZERO, interest in watching this fight, but on Saturday I’ll be sitting on my couch pulling out my hair as these two clash.

Let’s start with Bigfoot Silva…He’s a completely shot fighter and he has no business fighting in the UFC. His chin is absolutely gone, he can barely take one punch with out literally going unconscious. He’s been knocked out very quickly in four of his past five fights.

Roy Nelson isn’t a shot fighter but he’s way past his prime, and he’s reduced to throwing massive overhand rights and clinching against the cage. He has a BJJ black belt and can get the fight to the ground, but he’d rather just lay on top of you than work for a submission or land ground and pound.

The saving grace for Nelson is his chin, he can take some very hard shots and not flinch, and that’s going to be key in this fight. Even if Nelson sucks and can’t generate the offense, it will be tough for Silva to knock him out, even if he lands clean.

The odds on this fight are wide, and rightfully so. There’s a very good chance Nelson lands a punch, hard or not, early in this fight and puts Silva to sleep. I know a lot of people are betting on that, and I think Nelson will be popular.

I hate to be the guy to say this, but I think this is an elite fade spot. Nelson by knockout is such an obvious prediction, but I think there’s a real chance this fight turns into one of those HW snoozefests. If I thought Nelson was going to be 10 percent owned, I’d say this is an elite spot to target him for the upside, but because I think he’ll be 30 percent owned, I think it’s a interesting spot to pass.

Nelson was a finisher earlier in his career, but he’s only won by knockout once in his past eight fights. That’s not a coincidence. He doesn’t fight aggressively on the feet, and he’s turned into a low-output grappler. Of course he can knock Bigfoot out in this fight, but I’m not sold.

I will have shares of Nelson in tournaments for the upside, he has a finish prop of -279 which is amazing. I just won’t be all in on him like I expect many to be.

Bigfoot is interesting because of his expected low ownership and because this is a HW fight, but Nelson has such a good chin and Bigfoot’s finish prop is +550. I might have a lineup or two with Bigfoot for the price, but I’m not expecting much out of him. I don’t like targeting this fight in cash games because the floor is too low, but I expect Nelson to be popular anyways.

Fight Prediction: Nelson by KO, RD 1

Francisco Trinaldo vs. Paul Felder

Fight Odds: Trinaldo -130, Felder +110
Odds to finish: +130
Salaries: Trinaldo 9.7k, Felder 9.7k
Weight Class: 155

Francisco Trinaldo vs. Paul Felder is a fight for the hardcore fans, it should be fun. Trinaldo is coming off an amazing performance against Yancy Medeiros, and he’s on an impressive win streak of six.

Paul Felder has looked like a fighter struggling to climb the ranks, he’s a good technical striker but his still raw in many areas. He couldn’t beat Ross Pearson last September, but Trinaldo did fairly easily in January.

From a matchup perspective, I think this is a good spot for Trinaldo. He’s improved dramatically on the feet and I think he can outstrike Felder over the course of three rounds, although I think Felder can land his licks too. But Trinaldo can also wrestle, something Felder hasn’t proven he can defend against.

Trinaldo is the slight favorite at -130 but I think it could be higher, and we get him at a slight discount of 9.7k. However, Trinaldo’s ITD prop is only +439 compared to +256 of Felder, and that confuses me. Trinaldo has never been knocked out in 24 career fights, and I personally think it’s much more likely Trinaldo gets the finish than Felder.

With that said, I think Trinaldo is in play for cash games and tournaments. If you want to sneaky, you can trust Felder’s ITD prop and take the low ownership on him, but I’ll probably pass.

Fight Prediction: Trinaldo by Decision

Thiago Santos vs. Eric Spicely

Fight Odds: Santos -600, Spicely +450
Odds to finish: -475
Salaries: Santos 11.4k, Spicely 8k
Weight Class: 185

Another matchup that looks like it was put together to sacrifice one fighter to the other, Thiago Santos takes on Eric Spicely.

Spicely is a TUF reject who was given a shot against Sam Alvey, and it didn’t go well. Spicely is a submission grappler, but he got guillotined by Alvey. That’s pretty much a death sentence.

Now he gets to fight Santos who was on a killing streak up until his last fight against Gegard Mousasi. I have to bring it up but Santos was highly touted by some coming into that Mousasi fight, but I said it then and I’ll say it again, he’s not an elite fighter yet. His boxing isn’t very good, at least compared to the top tier of fighters.

Santos is primarily a kicker, which is fine. He’s strikes often and powerfully, and he has a nose for the knockout. Spicely did not look like he could take a punch in the fight against Alvey, so if he gets hit hard against Santos, I expect a finish to come soon after. The problem for Spicely is that he can’t do much on the feet, he’s going to need to close the distance to get Santos to the mat, but that’s going to put him in danger.

It’s a great matchup for Santos, I think it’s very likely he wins by knockout in this spot and the odds back that up. He’s -290 to win inside the distance.

I do have some hesitation because Santos will be extremely popular, and it’s the same sortof deal as with Roy Nelson, if he’s going to be 30 percent owned or more, it makes for an interesting fade spot. I absolutely love him in this matchup though, and his floor is much higher than Nelson’s because he actually lands strikes.

I will have zero percent Spicely in this matchup as I just don’t see him being effective anywhere the fight goes.

Fight Prediction: Santos by TKO, RD 1

Godofredo Pepey vs. Mike De La Torre

Fight Odds: Pepey -150, Torre +130
Odds to finish: -350
Salaries: Pepey 10.5k, Torre 8.9k
Weight Class: 145

This is one of my favorite matchups to target in tournaments because both Godofredo Pepey and Mike De La Torre come at a cheaper price tag than most of the obvious finishers.

Pepey is a notorious finish or be finished type of fighter, and although he broke that mold with a decision loss to Darren Elkins, this looks like another spot where someone will score highly.

Pepey is wild everywhere the fight goes, he’ll throw flying strikes and submissions, and while that’s a terrible strategy to fight with, it makes a great DraftKings target. He’s only -150 but his ITD prop is +109, which is good.

Torre has been knocked out once and submitted once in his UFC career, and he’s won a fight by knockout as well. He’s decent everywhere but he’s not great anywhere, which is what his record reflects. I think he’s the better overall fighter than Pepey but it may be by a slim margin. Still, if he can avoid being finished, I think he can win the fight and for 8.9k, I will definitely target him in tournaments, especially with an ITD prop of +197.

There’s no real way to analyze this fight because it will be crazy from the get-go, it just depends on how strong Torre’s defense is. My gut says that this looks like a good spot for Pepey to finish. It just seems like a fight he would finish. I definitely like him in tournaments and I expect him to be popular, but I won’t be touching this fight in cash games.

Fight Prediction: Pepey by Guillotine, RD 1

UNDERCARD

Gilbert Burns vs. Michel Prazeres

Fight Odds: Burns -185, Prazeres +160
Odds to finish: +125
Salaries: Burns 9.8k, Prazeres 9.6k
Weight Class: 155

Gilbert Burns is steadily improving each time he fights, and he’ll get a stiff test in Michel Prazeres this weekend.

It’s not that Prazeres is an elite fighter, but the dude is 20-2 and has never been finished. He’s extremely strong and a good wrestler/grappler, so there’s definitely routes to victory for him in every fight.

Burns, of course, is a jiu-jitsu ace and only needs a small opening to snatch an arm or neck and end the fight. This is an interesting matchup because Burns should want to grapple, but I’m not positive his wrestling is better than Prazeres’.

The problem for Prazeres is that he’s fairly limited on the feet and he tends to slow down as the fight progresses. He basically only loses fights where he’s out grappled though, and I have to give the overall grappling edge to Burns. On the feet, Burns probably has the edge too but he hasn’t shown me enough to be overly confident in his striking.

As a -185 favorite and only priced at 9.8k, there’s a bit of odds value on Burns. I don’t think I’ll want to target this fight in cash games because there’s a high chance it turns into a slow paced grappling affair. For tournaments, I think Burns is a fine play and with a finish prop of +205, he’s worth a look. I just don’t see Prazeres having much of a chance to finish or score highly in this fight, so at 9.6k, I won’t be on him.

I’ll be cautious about my exposure to Burns as well because this fight is likely to go to distance, but I can’t completely ignore the submission upside he has.

Fight Prediction: Burns by Decision

Rani Yahya vs. Michinori Tanaka

Fight Odds: Yahya -140, Tanaka +120
Odds to finish: +120
Salaries: Tanaka 10.1k, Yahya, 9.3k
Weight Class: 135

Rani Yahya vs. Michinori Tanaka is a battle of grapplers. Yahya is a 31-year-old submission expert with 30 fights in his pro MMA career, including 17 submission victories. Tanaka is only 25 years old with 12 fights, and he has five submission victories.

Yahya has the higher grappling pedigree and neither fighter is a threat on the feet, so I give him the slight edge overall. The only way that either fighter scores a significant number is if there is a finish, which would most likely be a submission.

Yahya is the favorite at -140, but he’s priced at 9.3k, so there’s significant odds value on him. I think he’s worth a look because of that value, but it’s hard to get super excited about a guy who will most likely score 60 points or less in a decision. At 10.1k, I don’t think there’s any reason to target Tanaka, especially with an ITD prop of +436. Yahya’s ITD prop sits at +234 for comparison, which is solid for the price.

Fight Prediction: Yahya by Decision

Jussier Formiga vs. Dustin Ortiz

Fight Odds: Formiga -200, Ortiz +170
Odds to finish: +170
Salaries: Ortiz 10.2k, Formiga 9.2k
Weight Class: 125

Both Jussier Formiga and Dustin Ortiz are in the top tier of the 125 lb. division, but they’re just a step or two off the title contention. I’ve been a fan of Ortiz for a while now, but he really let me down in his last fight against Wilson Reis.

Ortiz is very well-rounded but Reis was able to land nine takedowns and passed several times on the ground, and I really wasn’t expecting that. Ortiz has always shown good wrestling, and this is another matchup that will test him.

Formiga is more of a submission grappler than a wrestler, but he’s very grappling based. He only lands 1.2 significant strikes per minute which is extremely low, and not something I love in fighters on DraftKings. He’s also beaten Wilson Reis, and was able to land four takedowns in that fight, which is pretty concerning for Ortiz’ prospects.

But I just don’t think Formiga is that much better of a wrestler than Ortiz, he’s certainly not as powerful of a grappler as Reis, although he’s probably faster and more technical. It’s close at least. I think there’s a chance Ortiz defends Formiga’s style better than he did with Reis.

What I do like about Ortiz is that he’s active on the feet, and lands at 3.45 significant strikes per minute, so if the fight plays out on the feet, I’m giving the advantage to Ortiz. Vegas doesn’t respect Ortiz’ chance to finish with an ITD prop of +780, but Ortiz has 6 career TKOs and Formiga has been TKO’d twice himself. I don’t think it’s the likely outcome but if Ortiz keeps the fight standing, it wouldn’t SHOCK me.

On DraftKings, the pricing isn’t reflective of the odds as Formiga is 9.2k as a -200 favorite, and Ortiz is 10.2k as a +175 underdog. That’s a lot of value on Formiga, he’s probably the best overall value on the board, so that automatically puts him in play in all formats. I just don’t love the fact that Formiga won’t score a lot of points outside his grappling, and I don’t think it’s likely he gets a submission finish.

I think Formiga will be moderately popular and while I think he’s a decent bet to win, I think Ortiz is a sneaky tournament play, especially if you’re making multiple lineups.

Fight Prediction: Ortiz by Decision

Erick Silva vs. Luan Chagas

Fight Odds: Chagas -135, Silva +115
Odds to finish: -200
Salaries: Silva 10.6k, Chagas 8.8k
Weight Class: 170

I’ve been burned going to the Erick Silva well multiple times, but this is probably another matchup where I’ll have shares of him against Luan Chagas. Silva looked like such a strong prospect coming into the UFC and I still think he has high-level potential, but this is really his last chance to prove it.

All six of Silva’s UFC wins are first round finishes, which makes my mouth water a little. Since USADA started testing though, he’s looked dramatically different and has skills have seemingly fallen off a cliff, most recently getting knocked out by Nordine Taleb.

Chagas has only fought once in the UFC, a short-notice appearance against Sergio Moraes where he almost won and looked pretty solid. Chagas is 14-1 overall with 14 finishes, but I don’t think I’m as high on him as others. His stand-up looked OK, it was mostly kick oriented but I don’t know how well it will translate to high level MMA.

One interesting note is that the odds on this fight are currently all over the place. The lines I pull from 5Dimes list Silva as a +115 underdog, after opening at -175, but you can still find Silva at -150 on several other sites, including Bovada.

Silva is priced at 10.6k, so if his odds stay at an underdog level, he’ll be significantly overvalued. On the flipside, if Chagas closes as a favorite, he has significant odds value for the price of 8.8k.

I know this may bite me again, but I like Silva in this matchup, I still think he has some potential left in him, and his ITD prop is +210. All his movements are explosive and he’s a pure finisher, so if I can get him at a low ownership in tournaments, I think he’s a solid play. Chagas is still a bit of a wildcard but there’s no reason to avoid him as a value, and his finish prop has risen to +159.

You can consider Chagas in cash games for that price, but I think this is a matchup to target on both sides in tournaments.

Fight Prediction: Silva by Guillotine, RD 1

Alan Patrick vs. Stevie Ray

Fight Odds: Ray -165, Patrick +145
Odds to finish: -140
Salaries: Ray 11.1k, Patrick 8.4k
Weight Class: 155

Stevie Ray is an exciting prospect with a 3-0 UFC record, and this looks like a good matchup for him to get another decisive victory as he takes on Alan Patrick.

Patrick is 3-1 in the UFC but he hasn’t been that impressive to me. He’s a very lengthy guy but he doesn’t use that length well, and he’s a pretty poor striker from range. He’s OK once he gets into the clinch but he mostly chooses to wrestle, where he’s not bad.

Ray is definitely a better boxer and a more diverse striker than Patrick, so I think he has a decisive advantage on the feet. Patrick can get the fight to the ground, but I expect it to be difficult, as Ray has shown decent wrestling chops as well. I really see this fight being one sided as soon as Ray stuffs a takedown or two, and I think he has a good chance to finish Patrick in the latter rounds.

Even though he’s a -165 favorite, Ray is priced up at 11.1k, which makes it difficult to pay for him. He’s not ideal in cash because the odds are still tight, but I think he’s an excellent tournament play. His finish prop sits at +139, but more importantly, he’s in the range with Nelson, Santos and Barao and he could easily be overlooked in that spot.

At 8.3k, I think Patrick is in play as a +145 dog. He won’t have much opportunity to finish, but you don’t need many points at that price tag.

Fight Prediction: Ray by TKO, RD 2

Vincente Luque vs. Hector Urbina

Fight Odds: Luque -430, Urbina +345
Odds to finish: -170
Salaries: Luque 10.8k, Urbina 8.6k
Weight Class: 170

I’m excited to watch Vincente Luque, he’s a good quality prospect with two UFC wins, and this is a matchup against Hector Urbina he should definitely win.

Urbina just isn’t a good fighter, and I don’t think he’s UFC caliber. He’s average at best on the feet and he has a decent guillotine choke, but there’s not much more to it than that. Luque should be the better, more technical striker, and he should be the better grappler.

In his last fight, Urbina was taken down six times by Bartosz Fabinski and had his guard passed nine times, while Urbina attempted triangle chokes from his back and poorly timed guillotines in transition. If Luque wants to be aggressive to get this fight to the ground, I don’t think Urbina has the chops to stop him.

The real question is whether or not Luque can finish, and how quickly. He has a very good ITD prop of -145, and as a -430 favorite with a 10.8k price tag, I think he’s in play in all formats. He doesn’t strike at the highest of rates, but it’s not as poor as many other fighters on this card.

I just don’t think Urbina is good enough to have success in this fight outside of a puncher’s chance, or a random submission, which I can’t count on. I won’t be targeting him at all this weekend.

Fight Prediction: Luque by TKO, RD 2

Glaico Franca vs. Gregor Gillespie

Fight Odds: Franca -130, Gillespie +110
Odds to finish: Over 2.5 Rounds -125
Salaries: Franca 10.4k, Gillespie 9k
Weight Class: 155

Gregor Gillespie is making his UFC debut this weekend, a former D-1 NCAA wrestling champion and multiple time All-American, Gillespie is obviously a prospect to watch. He’s 7-0, coming from the Ring of Combat organization which is a strong regional promotion.

Glaico Franca has won TUF Brazil against Fernando Bruno, and took a decision loss to James Vick in his most recent fight in April. In those two fights, Franca has landed eight takedowns, and I think that’s his specialty going forward. Clearly, Gillespie should have the pure technical wrestling advantage in this fight, but I’m expecting Franca to keep the fight standing regardless.

Gillespie is obviously talented, but he’s a very limited striker and doesn’t transition well between the striking and grappling aspects. He’s either striking or wrestling, and he mostly just uses a 1-2 to set up the takedown. On the mat, he’s a limited grappler as well, I don’t think his jiu-jitsu is that high level, and although he knows the basic chokes like the arm-triangle and RNC, I don’t think he can score those on Franca.

Even though Franca is a grappling based fighter, his stand-up should be superior in this matchup. I think it’s possible that he could finish Gillespie on the feet, but Gillespie isn’t going to stand in range for long. I expect him to be shooting for the takedown relentlessly throughout the fight, and I’m sure he’ll land a couple. On the ground, though, I still favor Franca and I think the Brazilian could sweep or submit Gillepsie from his back or in transition.

Gillespie is pretty cheap at 9k and he’s only +110. That’s good value but I just don’t see his upside in this matchup, he doesn’t land enough strikes and he’s not likely to finish. He’s also going to be the smaller fighter, and I think he’ll probably drop down to 145 if his UFC career continues.

This floor is low on Franca from the perspective that this is going to be a grappling war, but I like shares of him in tournaments. I think this is a fight he should win and he has upside to finish.

Fight Prediction: Franca by Decision

About the Author

bbbomb
Brett Appley (bbbomb)

One of the top MMA minds in the DFS industry, Brett Appley a.k.a bbbomb has been writing his weekly “Beat Down” article for RotoGrinders since the sport launched on DraftKings in 2015. Brett has earned multiple Top 10 rankings in MMA since that time and has taken down a handful of tournaments as well.