UFC Fight Night: Dillashaw vs. Cruz Beat Down
Mixed Martial Arts season may be slowing down a bit, with UFC fight cards taking place only every couple weeks, but our content isn’t going anywhere. I’ve been looking forward to this main event for months, and I’m hopeful that it plays out as fun as it appears on paper.
If you want to hear me further break down four fighters I like this weekend, check out The Daily Fantasy Takedown by clicking here.
Follow me on Twitter at BrettAppley and at DailyFanMMA for more advice and hot (dumb) MMA takes!
Onto the fights!
MAIN CARD
TJ Dillashaw vs. Dominick Cruz
Fight Odds: Dillashaw -135, Cruz +115
Odds to finish: +145
Salaries: Dillashaw 10.1k, Cruz 9.3k
Weight Class: 135
Per usual, there are a lot of narratives/storylines floating around the main event, and it makes it difficult to separate bias from analysis, but it’s important to try and recognize that to keep the research clean.
Of course, I’m super-excited for this fight, especially because of those narratives. Dillashaw broke it off with Urijah Faber and his former camp Team Alpha Male to train in Colorado with Duane Ludwig, and it will be interesting to see how the drama has affected him.
On the opposite side, Cruz has climbed back from certain doom (countless knee surgeries to be more specific) in attempt to regain his spot as the Bantamweight Champion.
At his best, Cruz has some of the most unique and awkward movements in MMA that he uses in combination with cardio, speed and intelligence to put out a very well-rounded game. He’s never been much of a finisher, but he’s been dominant nonetheless. In his march to the top, Dillashaw developed some of those same movements which has really put his game on the next level, and it was a big reason why he was able to dominate Renan Barao in both their matches.
Looking at this matchup between Cruz and Dillashaw, I think both will be successful with their movements, but they use them differently. Cruz uses his movements more defensively, and thus he is very hard to hit. Dillashaw uses his more to cut angles and find offensive openings, and he’ll need that to land consistent strikes against Cruz.
On the feet overall, I’m favoring Dillashaw. He strikes at a much higher output than Cruz, and his strikes are more powerful. If this fight remains solely on the feet, it’s difficult for me to picture Cruz winning the majority of exchanges. I actually think Cruz may be forced to grapple because of that, which makes this fight even more interesting.
Dillashaw has the wrestling ability and he’s a good scrambler, but I actually give Cruz the slight edge as an overall grappler. That’s assuming his knees are in OK shape, which is yet another question we have to consider. It wouldn’t shock me if Cruz chose to initiate the grappling at some point, and it wouldn’t shock me to see him be successful with it. He did land 10 takedowns in his victory against Mighty Mouse, which is pretty impressive.
The final point to consider from a matchup perspective is Cruz’ fight IQ, which really can’t be understated. My friend texted me a week or two ago saying “I’m not sure, but I think Dominick Cruz might be a genius.” I think that sums it up pretty well.
From a DFS perspective, Dillashaw is pretty much a must-play in cash games in my eyes, and even in a loss, I could see him scoring 50 points, although I do favor him to win. Because I expect Cruz to land less on the feet, I don’t think he’s as much in play, especially in GPPs. I think stacking this fight is fine in cash games because it will give you an advantage over everyone who picks incorrectly, and I do think the ownership will be relatively split.
I also think Dillashaw has the much better chance to win by finish in addition to his output, so I think he’s the far better GPP play.
Fight Prediction: Dillashaw by Decision
Anthony Pettis vs. Eddie Alvarez
Fight Odds: Pettis -345, Alvarez +285
Odds to finish: -130
Salaries: Pettis 11k, Alvarez 8.4k
Weight Class: 155
On paper, I actually don’t love this fight for fantasy purposes and I question whether it’s worth it to pay the 11k for Anthony Pettis against Eddie Alvarez.
Alvarez is an extremely tough fighter and he’s hard to finish, and Vegas agrees, as the prop on Pettis winning inside the distance is only +105. However, Pettis is also coming off an “embarrassing” defeat to Rafael Dos Anjos in which his championship belt was taken away, and it’s always interesting to see how fighters respond from that circumstance.
In Pettis’ case, I think it will light a fire around him and I expect him to come out as strong as ever. That still doesn’t mean he’ll be able to walk through Alvarez, but I expect to see an aggressive Pettis who is out there looking for the kill. He’s still the heaviest favorite on the card (potentially outside of the rising line on Wade), and if you want to pay up for him in cash games, I have no problem with it.
I think that his ownership will be high enough compared to his chances to finish quickly that I’m considering fading him in tournaments. It wouldn’t surprise me to see him finish, but I think it’s more likely that the fight enters the second or third round, and for the price, that might not be enough to win a tournament.
Fight Prediction: Pettis by Guillotine, RD 3
Travis Browne vs. Matt Mitrione
Fight Odds: Browne -155, Mitrione +135
Odds to finish: -625
Salaries: Browne 10.2k, Mitrione 9.2k
Weight Class: HW
As I mentioned in my Daily Fantasy Takedown video, I expect the percentages to be split on this fight between Travis Browne and Matt Mitrione, but I favor Browne as the stronger play in all formats.
Most people remember Browne as the fighter who was brutally knocked out by Andrei Arlovski not so long ago, and I think that will play into people’s minds when they make the decision of who to roster. That’s not to say Mitrione is a bad play, especially in GPPs I think he has a ton of upside and I will have exposure to him.
But Browne is a very talented fighter and he’s tough to put away, and he’s coming off much better finishes over much stronger fighters than Mitrione has ever faced. Browne’s finished Brendan Schaub, Josh Barnett, Alistair Overeem and Stefan Struve, while Mitrione has knocked out Derrick Lewis and Shawn Jordan.
Hopefully this fight will end with a finish, and I do expect these fighters to stand and bang which makes the fight as a whole one of my favorite targets on the night.
Fight Prediction: Browne by TKO, RD 1
Ross Pearson vs. Francisco Trinaldo
Fight Odds: Pearson -165, Trinaldo +145
Odds to finish: +140
Salaries: Pearson 10.3k, Trinaldo 9.1k
Weight Class: 155
There are several fights on this card that should be close but draw little fantasy interest, and this is one of them. Frankly, I don’t really care whether Ross Pearson or Francisco Trinaldo wins this fight because I don’t want much exposure to them.
Pearson is the slight favorite and the more expensive fighter, and he’s a decent boxer. At this point in his career he doesn’t possess much finishing power, and he’s fighting an opponent in Trinaldo who’s never been knocked out. Trinaldo is on an impressive four-fight win streak that includes a first round knockout of Chad Laprise, but he’s generally not a finisher either.
Trinaldo is capable on the feet, and I think he can compete with Pearson if the fight stays there, but he’s at his best when he tries to grind on his opponent and get the fight on the mat. Pearson was taken down five times against Evan Dunham, and although I’m not sure if Trinaldo will have the same amount of success, I think it’s likely that this fight hits the floor.
In a decision win for either fighter, I wouldn’t expect a score much higher than 60, and I don’t think the chances of it ending in a finish are likely enough to warrant heavy exposure.
Fight Prediction: Trinaldo by Decision
UNDERCARD
Patrick Cote vs. Ben Saunders
Fight Odds: Saunders -115, Cote -105
Odds to finish: -130
Salaries: Saunders 9.8k, Cote 9.6k
Weight Class: 170
Please don’t target this fight in cash games.
Welllllllll, if you must, you must, I’ve probably done worse. But it’s a super difficult fight to pick apart, and I could see it playing out in a number of ways.
For one, Ben Saunders is probably the crisper and more dangerous striker, especially in the clinch, and he’s 100 percent the more dangerous fighter on the ground. Still, I expect Saunders to be hurt at some point in this fight, which he’ll likely recover from only to be hurt again before fight’s end.
Patrick Cote has seen a career resurgence over the past year but I’m not quite sure how Saunders stacks up with his previous opponents and current form. I think Cote’s capable of winning, but I don’t love him from a DFS perspective. I don’t see an easy path to victory – if Cote takes the fight to the ground he’s going to be in real danger from Saunders’ guard. And if the fight stays on the feet, well, it’s a crapshoot.
I think Saunders is the better target of the two, and I prefer him as a GPP play.
Fight Prediction: Saunders by Decision
Tim Boetsch vs. Ed Herman
Fight Odds: Boetsch -240, Herman +200
Odds to finish: -135
Salaries: Boetsch 10.5k, Herman 8.9k
Weight Class: 205
This isn’t a fight I’m much looking forward to on paper, but hey, maybe it will surprise me. I’m also not expecting much from either fighter these days. I expected a lot from Tim Boetsch during his last fight against Dan Henderson, but that only lasted 28 seconds before Henderson put his lights out.
Ed Herman did better in his most recent fight, he lasted 36 seconds before Derek Brunson knocked him out.
So, in all likelihood, if this fight stays on the feet, someone will get knocked out, and for that reason, I’m fine with targeting both sides in GPPs. I actually think Boetsch is the better play and I expect him to get a knockout or a clear decision win as long as the fight stays standing.
If the fight hits the mat, I give the edge to Herman and a finish on the floor isn’t outside the question. In my opinion there are better underdogs than Herman to target, but Boetsch is reasonably enough priced that I’ll have several shares of him.
Fight Prediction: Boetsch by TKO, RD 1
Chris Wade vs. Mehdi Baghdad
Fight Odds: Wade -330, Baghdad +270
Odds to finish: +140
Salaries: Wade 10.4k, Baghdad 9k
Weight Class: 155
Chris Wade was originally supposed to fight Maribek Taisumov on this card but Taisumov was injured and replaced on short notice by Mehdi Baghdad. For his price of 10.4k, Wade is a great value and definitely worth consideration.
Unfortunately, I don’t love him in a vacuum as a fantasy play because I expect him to be grappling oriented, and his style often induces slow paced, low-scoring fights. Baghdad isn’t an MMA rookie, but he’s a very singular fighter. He’s a solid, heavy-handed striker but he moves slowly and he doesn’t possess much grappling.
Even if Wade can hang with him on the feet, I think he’ll try and get the fight to the ground. I’m concerned that his upside is too limited to warrant heavy exposure in tournaments, but he’s certainly worth consideration as a value option.
Fight Prediction: Wade by Decision
Maximo Blanco vs. Luke Sanders
Fight Odds: Blanco -120, Sanders +100
Odds to finish: +140
Salaries: Blanco 9.9k, Sanders 9.5k
Weight Class: 145
Luke Sanders is a fighter on many analyst’s radar, and he’s expected to be a solid UFC fighter down the road, but he has a tough test in debut against Maximo Blanco.
For one, Sanders is a 135er and he’ll be stepping up to 145 to face Blanco on short notice. Outside of the size disadvantage, Blanco is a talented fighter himself, even if he doesn’t possess a whole lot of Fighter IQ to back up his technique.
Sanders is undefeated at 10-0 and fights out of the same camp as Ben Henderson, and he possesses a similar wrestling-based, high energy style. He should look to get Blanco to the ground and control him there, although he’s not an inept striker if the fight stays on the feet.
My biggest beef with Sanders from a DFS perspective is that even in a win, I don’t know how high scoring he’ll be. Vegas tagged him with a +425 line to win inside the distance, which isn’t very good. His upside, to my best assumption, is a late finish, and even if he can pull that off, I don’t know if he’ll be worth it.
On the opposite side, I think Blanco will be relatively overlooked in this matchup, and although I’d never target him in a cash game, I think he makes for an interesting GPP play if you find yourself needing a mid-range option. He often comes out of nowhere and is hard to predict, and with a size and experience advantage, it’s plausible that he could overwhelm Sanders early.
More than likley, I expect this fight to last a while and although I give the underdog a strong chance to pull off the victory, I’ll probably shy away from this fight as a whole.
Fight Prediction: Sanders by Decision
Paul Felder vs. Daron Cruickshank
Fight Odds: Felder -265, Cruickshank +225
Odds to finish: -130
Salaries: Felder 10.7k, Cruickshank 8.7k
Weight Class: 155
Paul Felder is coming off back-to-back losses after an impressive knockout over Danny Castillo, and Daron Cruickshank has been pretty disappointing since his appearance on The Ultimate Fighter, but here we are analyzing them in moderately important DFS matchup.
Even though Felder has lost recently, he’s actually looked solid, and he’s still young in his career. He’s going to be the much bigger and stronger fighter than Cruickshank, and he should have the power and striking advantages on the feet. Even with his karate style striking background, Cruickshank has developed into a wrestler and I think that’s his best chance for a victory in this fight.
The problem with Felder, from a DFS perspective, is that he doesn’t strike in volume. I’m not going to pay 10.7k in cash games for him to land two strikes per minute in a decision win, but I do think he has tournament value. I don’t find much value in rostering Cruickshank either, as his best chance to win should be taking the fight to the ground.
I think Felder can keep the fight standing for its majority, and he might end up finishing the smaller Cruickshank, but I think he’s best served as a GPP option.
Fight Prediction: Felder by Decision
Ilir Latifi vs. Sean O’Connell
Fight Odds: Latifi -270, O’Connell +230
Odds to finish: -285
Salaries: Latifi 10.9k, O’Connell 8.5k
Weight Class: 205
I’m honestly not sure if this fight is more interesting from a DFS perspective or from a real-life perspective. At his best, Sean O’Connell is a high-paced, forward-marching fighter who can throw a ton and take a lot of damage.
Ilir Latifi is quite literally a sledgehammer in the Octagon and he packs the power to boot, but my concern with this fight is that it doesn’t play out on the feet. Latifi has the strength and grappling prowess to take O’Connell down if he wants, and my guess is that a grappling match would be easiest for him to win.
I also think Latifi is the more capable fighter of finishing on the feet, but my concern there is that he doesn’t strike enough at volume compared to O’Connell, and I could see him losing a scorecard battle if he can’t land anything devastating.
I don’t think many people will be on him, but I actually think O’Connell is worth a shot in GPPs. Even if he doesn’t finish the fight, he’s more than capable of landing high volume, and I don’t think it’s out of the question he scores 75 points in a decision.
Overall, this should be Latifi’s fight to lose, and I think his physical and technical attributes outweigh those of O’Connell. He’s an excellent GPP target for those who want to pay up.
Fight Prediction: Latifi by Decision
Charles Rosa vs. Kyle Bochniak
Fight Odds: Rosa -250, Bochniak +210
Odds to finish: -170
Salaries: Rosa 10.8k, Bochniak 9.4k
Weight Class: 145
After spinning the wheel of opponents several times, Charles Rosa finally ended up with Kyle Bochniak. It’s a bit odd for Rosa who had a full training camp for one opponent, took a completely different short notice opponent only for him to be injured as well, and here we are.
To complicate things a bit more, Bochniak fought last week. Literally last week. He won by 1st round RNC on Jan 8.
Bochniak seems like a decent fighter, he’s 6-0 but I’m not picking him to beat Rosa, who’s the much more experienced fighter. Rosa isn’t spectacular on the feet but he’s capable, and he’s flashy on the ground and I’d pick him to beat Bochniak everywhere the fight goes.
From a fantasy perspective, I don’t trust Bochniak enough to target, and DK priced him up too high based on his odds. Rosa is certainly worth a look in GPPs, and I think he’s a sneaky play for a finish. I’m not sure I’d target him at his price in cash, but with little locks on this card, he’s in consideration.
Fight Prediction: Rosa by Decision
Rob Font vs. Joey Gomez
Fight Odds: Font -230, Gomez +190
Odds to finish: -270
Salaries: Font 10.6k, Gomez 8.8k
Weight Class: 135
For a lighter weight scrap at 135 lbs., this should be a firefight. Rob Font comes in at 11-1 looking to build off his first round KO of George Roop in his UFC debut. Joey Gomez wants the same for his UFC debut, and he comes into the fight with a 6-0 record and 6 first round knockouts.
In fact, Gomez has only made it past the 2-minute mark once, and that’s slightly concerning. I don’t think he’s fought all cans persay, but Font is certainly a step up in competition and it makes me wonder how he’ll fare once the fight reaches round 3 (or minute 3).
From a DFS perspective, I’m really high on this fight and on Font especially. Vegas marked Font with a -106 line to win inside the distance which is super high for a Bantamweight fighter. But that’s the thing, both Font and Gomez throw heavy leather and I expect them to stand and trade. Gomez is a decent striker in his own right, and he’s a bit more lengthy than Font, and if he can keep Font at range, he’ll actually have a good shot at winning and finishing the fight.
But I think Font is the more well-rounded fighter and I trust his skills much more, and he should have more ways to win the fight. Font makes for an excellent GPP play and I’m honestly fine with him in cash games if you want to go that route. Gomez can be targeted in all formats as well, although I don’t consider him a “must play” by any means.
Fight Prediction: Font by TKO, RD 2
Francimar Barroso vs. Elvis Mutapcic
Fight Odds: Mutapcic -165, Barroso +145
Odds to finish: -115
Salaries: Barroso 10k, Mutapcic 9.4k
Weight Class: 205
I liked the price on Elvis Mutapcic right when it was released on DraftKings, and even talked about him a bit in my video before the odds came out. Frankly, I don’t think Francimar Barroso is a strong UFC talent and it wouldn’t surprise me to see the newcomer win a short notice debut.
The newcomer, Mutapcic, has earned wins over Sam Alvey, Cezar Ferreira and Zak Cummings outside of the UFC, and he’s actually a decent striker. The biggest concern I have with him from a matchup perspective is that he normally fights at 185, and he’ll definitely be at a size disadvantage against the LHW in Barroso.
Mutapcic is priced at 9.4k because Barroso’s original opponent was injured, and DraftKings had to stick him in there at the last minute, and that makes him a great value. I know, we’ve all been screwed countless times by the pricing errors, but this is another one I just cant pass up on.
Not only is Mutapcic a top value on the card, I think he has solid upside, and for that price, I will have heavy exposure to him this weekend. As long as he doesn’t get out-muscled and held against the cage for 15 minutes, I think he’s likely to earn a solid score.
Fight Prediction: Mutapcic by TKO, RD 2