UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Edwards Quick Picks
Welcome back to another edition of the UFC Quick Picks!
Coming off a slate that saw the majority of underdogs win, we may be in for another competitive weekend at UFC San Antonio. As usual there is plenty of money to be won on DraftKings, so I’ve listed some of my favorite plays below to help you get started.
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Onto the fights!
Cash Game Plays
1. Dom Pilarte, 9.4k
Although I feel uncomfortable paying up to the top tier in cash games, Dom Pilarte is the heaviest favorite on the slate at -340, and I think he makes for a reasonable target at 9.4k.
Pilarte is making his UFC debut against Felipe Colares, who is 0-1 in the promotion. Pilarte earned a contract after his submission victory against Vince Morales on the Contender Series, and he should be the more well-rounded fighter in this matchup.
Pilarte is also a bit bigger than Colares and should have physical advantages as well, which I’m hopeful will help play to his strengths on the mat. Ultimately, I’ll be trusting in the odds a bit for this one, on a card with very few safe favorites, Colares is the best option we have.
2. Rafael Dos Anjos, 7.9k
Targeting the Main Event is always preferable in cash games, and although we have another competitive fight with Rafael Dos Anjos and Leon Edwards, my priority is Dos Anjos at 7.9k.
Simply put, Dos Anjos is more experienced, he produces offense at a much higher rate and is several hundred dollars cheaper. Dos Anjos tops the 100 point mark in the majority of his victories, and has traditionally scored well in losses as well.
Edwards is the favorite at -130 and is a strong cash game option as well, but rarely tops the 100 point mark and is priced up at 8.3k. I still think a Main Event stack is in play, but if I have to choose one option, it’s going to be Dos Anjos at 7.9k.
Tournament Plays
1. Walt Harris, 8.7k
There are two fights on this slate with massive potential to end in a finish, and one of them is Walt Harris vs. Aleksei Oleinik. Harris is a powerful striker and Oleinik is a crafty submission grappler, and whichever fighter has the early success is likely to come away with a big score.
Harris has an ITD line of -110 which is one of the best on the entire slate, and he’s only priced at 8.7k. The fight obviously starts standing and Harris has defended takedowns 76 percent, so there’s a reasonable chance he can keep the fight upright.
If that happens, Harris will be in play for an early knockout and obviously has potential to end up on the optimal lineup. This is arguably the best overall fight to target on the entire slate in tournaments, and it makes sense to take some risks on both sides.
2. Steven Peterson, 7.4k
If you need to save some salary, one underdog option I have exposure to is Steven Peterson at 7.4k.
Peterson is only +105 on the betting line, which is a great value for his price tag. Plus he’s an aggressive grappling based fighter, so in theory his floor and ceiling are both high.
He’ll be taking on the veteran Alex Caceres, who definitely has the tools to win this fight, but has also traditionally struggled against wrestlers. It’s not a sure thing, but Peterson has real potential to land takedowns and control the fight on the mat.
For 7.4k, with grappling upside and price value, I’m willing to take some chances on Peterson in tournaments.
Fade of the Week
1. Jin Soo Son, 9.1k
Of the top priced fighters this week, one of my least favorite options is Jin Soo Son at 9.1k.
We’ve only seen him fight once in the UFC, an ugly loss against Petr Yan, so there’s a chance Son will improve upon his most recent result. But he’s simply too expensive for the upside he’s shown.
In terms of a priority, you can definitely make the case that Pilarte and Borg have more upside, as well as Rothwell and Hernandez, and that doesn’t include several mid-range fighters on the slate. At 9.1k, with an ITD line of +200 and a questionable skill set, I just don’t have much interest in paying up for Son.