UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Ferguson Quick Picks
Welcome back to another edition of the UFC Quick Picks! If you’re reading this, you’ve successfully endured the most brutal part of the 2016 MMA schedule, as the UFC has been on hiatus for nearly a month.
Thankfully, we now enter the best part of the MMA season, which includes 10 events over the next two months. I’ll be breaking down a couple of my favorite cash plays, tournament plays and my fade of the week in this article.
If you want access to my full fight-by-fight breakdown, as well as projections, expert rankings, premium chat and more, you can purchase MMA Premium in the Daily Marketplace for as little as $5 per event! I’ve also launched a seasonal package, which is $39.99 and includes access to all 10 events for the rest of 2016. Hope to see you there!
Additionally, I’ve introduced Season 3 of The Ultimate Fighter- DFS Edition, which is a two-month long survivor tournament that you can sign up for in the forums!
Cash Game Plays
1. Enrique Barzola, 9.5k
At 9.5k, I know it’s not the most exciting price tag to pay for a guy like Enrique Barzola, but I think he’s a very safe play against Chris Avila. Artem Lobov put a beating on Avila in his UFC debut, and my perspective is that Avila just isn’t ready yet to fight in the UFC.
Barzola is a well-rounded fighter, and he’s aggressive and will constantly look for the takedown. Unless Avila keeps Barzola at boxing range for 15 minutes, I don’t really see how he wins this fight. I think Barzola should be able to get Avila down and accrue a nice floor of points with his grappling.
Barzola is the heaviest favorite on the card at -600, with an inside distance prop of +162. There aren’t a lot of obvious winners on this card, but I think Barzola makes for a good spot to pay up with.
2. Rafael Dos Anjos, 8.3k
I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t considering both Rafael Dos Anjos and Tony Ferguson in cash games, but my preferred play at this moment is RDA. He’s the -145 favorite in the five-round main event, and I think he’s slightly safer than Ferguson.
Before his loss to Eddie Alvarez, Dos Anjos easily defeated Anthony Pettis, Donald Cerrone, Nate Diaz and Ben Henderson. I respect those opponents a bit more than the ones on Ferguson’s resume, which include Lando Vannata, Edson Barboza, Josh Thompson and Gleison Tibau.
Ferguson is also a bit more wild and he searches for the finish, which is fine, but Dos Anjos is generally tough and I think he has more round-winning tools than Ferguson. For 8.3k, I’ll be including Dos Anjos in my cash games.
Tournament Plays
1. Polo Reyes, 8.9k
Polo Reyes is coming off one of the fights of the year with Dong Hyun Kim, and it’s hard not to go back to the well with him against Jason Novelli.
Reyes took a beating against Kim, but he survived and landed a bigger beating, scoring 135 significant strikes in a knockout win. Novelli is the “veteran” in this fight, but he wasn’t impressive in his debut, losing by TKO to David Teymur.
Novelli certainly has a route to victory in this spot, and it’s through the grappling, but that’s where he should have looked last fight, while he instead chose to stand and bang with a clearly superior striker. I have a feeling that Novelli will look to stand with Reyes in this fight too, and if he does, it’s likely that he gets knocked out again.
Reyes is still not the most technical marvel, so it’s hard to declare him safe, but at 8.9k with an ITD prop of +101, I love him in tournaments.
2. Alex Nicholson, 7.1k
Alex Nicholson isn’t a great fighter, and I’ve heard that he’s not a great person either, but I’m pushing that aside to get some shares of him in tournaments this weekend. He’s coming off a knockout win in which he was losing most of the first round until he put Devin Clark out cold with a few seconds left.
More importantly, Nicholson is fighting Sam Alvey, who usually burns me. I like Alvey as a person, but his fighting style is so hard to trust, and I’m just waiting for the letdown spot when he’s favored.
Unless Alvey wins by knockout, he’s not very likely to win the fight, and that concerns me. Alvey fights with one power punch and looks to counter, and he’s been massively successful with it, but the more times you spin that wheel, the more opportunities there are for him to fall short. I think this is a sneaky spot for Nicholson.
Nicholson strikes at a higher volume and strikes with good power. If Alvey can’t get the early knockout, I can definitely see Nicholson winning rounds and possibly getting a stoppage of his own. There’s also a good chance that Alvey knocks him out within the first two minutes, which is why I’m designating him to a tournament play.
This could be an ugly fight, but I think Nicholson will go overlooked and I’m willing to take a chance on him in tournaments for 7.1k.
Fade of the Week
1. Marcin Held, 9k
There are several high-upside fighters on this card, and although Marcin Held has upside, he’s my fade this week. Held is coming over from Bellator with a 22-4 record after having fought the best fighters in that organization, including Will Brooks and Michael Chandler.
Held is a jiu-jitsu specialist and he loves to look for leg locks, but he’s got a really tough matchup against Diego Sanchez in his UFC debut. It’s not that I’m super high on Sanchez, coming off his first career TKO loss, but this spot makes me nervous.
Sanchez is still a very good grappler, and I would be surprised to see Held get him to the ground and submit Sanchez, who’s never been submitted in 35 career fights. And on the feet, Held isn’t that dangerous. I think Sanchez can push the pace and make this a close fight, and with the other options in Held’s price range, I don’t plan to target him this weekend.