UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Lee Quick Picks
Welcome back to another edition of the UFC Quick Picks!
We have a top-heavy card this weekend for UFC Rochester, with nine of 11 favorites lined at -235 or greater. But there is plenty of money to be won as usual, and I’ve listed some of my favorite plays below to help you get started.
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Onto the fights!
Cash Game Plays
1. Vincente Luque, 9.4k
There are several massive favorites on this slate, but one of the clear top overall plays is Vincente Luque at 9.4k.
Luque had his opponent scrapped earlier in the week and gets a short-notice veteran replacement in Derrick Krantz. Luque is a massive -1,000 favorite, which makes him the heaviest favorite on the slate, and we even get a bit of a discount in the top tier for the price.
Luque also carries the heaviest ITD line on the slate at -260 which gives him tremendous upside as well. He’s a talented striker and a dangerous submission grappler, and based on those metrics I consider him a very strong cash game play on this slate.
2. Kevin Lee, 8k
We have an ultra-competitive Main Event this weekend between Rafael Dos Anjos and Kevin Lee, and although I consider both strong cash game plays, my preference is Lee at 8k.
Lee has landed 4.06 significant strikes per minute, along with 3.1 takedowns per 15 minutes and has been a very strong DraftKings scorer in the past. I don’t necessarily believe Lee can duplicate the performance of Usman and Covington, but I do think he’s capable of mixing in takedowns over the course of 25 minutes.
In his last loss against Al Iaquinta, Lee still scored 75 points, and that would be more than enough for the price in cash games.
Targeting the Main Event in cash games is generally a strong practice and I’ll stick to my routine with Kevin Lee this weekend.
Tournament Plays
1. Davi Ramos, 9.2k
Perhaps the best part about Davi Ramos is his price tag of 9.2k, given the number of heavy favorites on this slate, Ramos comes in at a big discount.
Ramos is -470 to win and -170 to win inside the distance, and he’s shown his DraftKings upside in recent bouts. He’s a world-class submission grappler, and it may only take one takedown for him to secure back mount and lock in a RNC.
Ramos has scored 100 points or more in his past three fights, and has a fairly strong stylistic matchup this weekend against the debuting Austin Hubbard. In tournaments, where upside counts most, I’m absolutely willing to take chances on Ramos.
2. Megan Anderson, 8.5k
What I like about Megan Anderson is that her fight with Felicia Spencer is unlikely to be competitive.
Anderson is a very large, very physical fighter with a significant striking advantage, and her opponent Spencer will be looking to take the fight down to the mat. If Spencer succeeds, she’ll put Anderson in tough spots and has potential to earn a submission.
But if Anderson can keep the fight standing, she’ll have potential to land damaging strikes and get a finish of her own. Anderson is also +165 ITD which is strong for her 8.5k price tag.
Anderson will be six inches taller than Spencer with a reach advantage as well, and has plenty of tournament upside for her price.
Fade of the Week
1. Desmond Green, 9.5k
I’ve faded Desmond Green in the majority of his UFC fights, and for the most part, it has worked out. But not last time, Green knocked out Ross Pearson in the first round and ended up on the optimal lineup.
He’ll have a chance to duplicate that performance against the debuting Charles Jourdain this weekend, but at 9.5k, it doesn’t really matter. There are too many other strong favorites in that same price range, including Arce, Luque, Oliveira, Ramos and more. Even if Green scores 100 points, he’s not likely to end up on the optimal lineup.
With a +225 ITD line, at 9.5k, it simply does not make much sense to invest heavily in Green on this slate.