UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs. Ivanov Quick Picks
Welcome to another edition of the UFC Quick Picks!
Last week was brutal for most involved, unless you took the leverage opportunities to heart and left thousands of dollars on the table, it was tough to create strong lineups. But that’s how it goes sometimes in this high-variance sport, and we have another tricky slate coming up this week, with many fighters toward the end of their careers.
It should still be a fun slate to break down and watch, and there is still money to be won on DraftKings, so I’ve listed a few of my favorite plays below.
If you want FULL BREAKDOWNS of every single fight on the card, projections, rankings and more, you can find that in the Premium Section here. We’ve also launched the MMA LINEUP BUILDER which you can access with my projections if you purchase the premium content.
Onto the fights!
Cash Game Plays
Alexander Volkanovski, $9,200
The top-priced option on the slate is Alex Volkanovski at 9.2k, but he won’t be able to earn the victory without a fight. His opponent Darren Elkins is notoriously difficult to finish, and has multiple come-from-behind victories himself.
But Volkanovski has a knack for scoring DraftKings points, he averages 4.46 takedowns per 15 minutes and lands nearly six significant strikes per minute. He should be able to get Elkins on the mat, advance position and land ground-and-pound. Elkins doesn’t have strong finishing ability, so I would expect Volkanovski to accrue points for 15 minutes even in a loss.
He’s the heaviest favorite on the card, north of -300, with a style that works well for DraftKings, and so Volkanovski is clearly the top target for cash games this weekend.
Dennis Bermudez, $9,000
Another very strong cash game option this week is Dennis Bermudez, who is also expensive at 9k. He’s the second heaviest favorite on the slate at -220, but what I love the most is his work rate.
Bermudez lands 4.59 significant strikes per minute and has landed 3.6 takedowns per 15 minutes throughout his UFC career. Unless he gets finished, Bermudez is capable of putting up a strong score over the course of 15 minutes, even in a loss. He put up 60 points while losing a decision to Andre Fili last time out, and I expect a similar output in this fight with Rick Glenn.
I don’t necessarily expect Bermudez to get the finish, but his overall floor is one of the highest on the card, because he fights at such a high pace and is always producing offense. Those are the plays I like to target in cash games, and with the lack of obvious value on this card, I think Bermudez is a strong target.
Tournament Plays
Junior Dos Santos, $8,700
One of the better plays on the slate in tournaments is Junior Dos Santos, who is fairly priced at 8.7k. There’s a chance his chin holds up, which is always a risk with heavyweights, but as long as he can survive, I expect Dos Santos to win and put up a comfortable score.
He lands 4.89 significant strikes per minute and has scored more than 100 points in five-round decisions on multiple occasions. Dos Santos is clearly the better range striker so even if this fights last a while, I think he can land in volume.
And Dos Santos has one of the best ITD props on the card at +120. The mix of his metrics, striking output and potential to win inside the distance make him one of the elite tournament plays on this slate.
Mark De La Rosa, $7,600
There are many live underdogs this week, one of the sneakier options could be Mark De La Rosa at 7.6k. He’s only +125 to win and +270 to win ITD so you are already getting value compared to his price, but I also think his fight with Elias Garcia has potential to score well.
Garcia is making his UFC debut and has a pretty open, wild style. Both he and Rosa should want the fight on the mat and I expect there to be several grappling exchanges. Because both are still lower-level, both have holes in their games and there’s a decent chance one exposes the other.
I think Rosa has an opportunity not only to win, but to score grappling points along the way and so for 7.6k I am definitely willing to take some shots on him in tournaments.
Fade of the Week
Alejandro Perez, $9,100
What sucks is that you can make a case for any of these high-priced fighters, Alejandro Perez could go out there and win by KO in a couple minutes. But my problem with him is that there’s just no way he scores well outside of that quick finish.
His ITD line is +270 and he’s 9.1k, and the most likely outcome in a decision would be in the neighborhood of 60 points. I’m not willing to bet my bankroll he finishes Eddie Wineland in the first round when John Dodson could not. More power to him if he can, it still may not be enough to boost him onto the optimal lineup, given the price.
There are just so many high-upside plays this week and Perez is one of them, but I like other options better in his range and his floor is extremely low. So he’s going to be one of the fighters I look to the least this weekend.