UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs. Tuivasa Quick Picks
Welcome back to another edition of the UFC Quick Picks!
It’s the second of two slates this weekend but DraftKings ramped up the prize pools, and so I’m happy to share some of my favorite plays on the card below.
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Onto the fights!
Cash Game Plays
1. Sodiq Yusuff, 9.3k
For cash game consideration, Sodiq Yusuff has almost every attribute that I look for.
He’s a heavy favorite and a considerable value at -620, based on his DraftKings price of 9.3k, and he has high-upside with an ITD line of -215. He has the ability to strike at a high rate, and even in a decision I expect Yusuff to score fairly well, so his floor is reasonably high.
The only downside is his potential to grapple, as that is not his strength, and he will likely be forced to defend takedowns from his opponent Suman Mokhtarian, who came from the Undefeated season of TUF.
I believe in the talent of Yusuff at this point and am not confident in the wrestling of Mokhtarian, and the betting line is reflective of the mismatch. Yusuff is one of the stronger cash game and tournament options on this slate and someone I would like exposure to this weekend.
2. Damir Ismagulov, 9.5k
I’m not sure as to whether people will pay all the way up for Damir Ismagulov based on his tag of 9.5k, but he’s another one of my favorite cash game options on the card and I think he warrants consideration.
Ismagulov is -490 with an ITD line of -139 and has major grappling upside coming from the M1 organization. He’ll be facing Alex Gorgees who comes in on short notice from the Australian regional scene, and this feels like a very favorable matchup for Ismagulov if he can get the fight on the mat.
There are other strong plays in the top tier, ones who are more likely to win quickly by knockout, but Ismagulov has a better opportunity to land takedowns, advance position and rack up strikes. His floor is very high and his metrics are strong, and I will aim to target him in cash games.
Tournament Plays
1. Junior Dos Santos, 8.3k
Heavyweight fights always carry risk and I have to say it every time, because even though I like Junior Dos Santos, his opponent Tai Tuivasa is strong tournament option as well for his early knockout upside.
But Dos Santos is far more experienced and far more technical, and if he can keep this fight at range, he should have no problem jabbing Tuivasa from distance and winning rounds. I also like the price of Dos Santos at 8.3k, you don’t necessarily need 100 points from him to end up on the optimal lineup, and given that this is the Main Event, Dos Santos has a solid five-round floor as well.
I’m not sold on Dos Santos ability to finish but his ITD line is still strong at +140 and he lands in fair volume at 4.83 significant strikes per minute. I always like to get exposure to the Main Event and I think Dos Santos is worth consideration as a tournament option this weekend.
2. Tyson Pedro, 9.4k
Per usual, tournament selections are upside-based and are not necessarily indicative of my confidence in their ability to win.
I have some concerns about Tyson Pedro, his inexperience being one of them. And he’s fighting an opponent in Shogun Rua who has loads of experience and should be more technical on the feet.
However, Rua has very questionable durability and is coming off a TKO loss that ended in the very first minutes against Anthony Smith. It wasn’t luck or magic, it was a finish reflective of Rua not being able to take much damage.
If Pedro wins this fight, one of the most likely outcomes is by early knockout, and that’s something worth considering in tournaments. His ITD line is very strong at -210 and he is one of a few fighters with a real chance to pass the 100 point mark on this slate.
The 9.4k price tag is expensive, but I would feel uncomfortable playing many lineups without any exposure to Pedro.
Fade of the Week
1. Christos Giagos, 9k
There are several high-upside targets in the top tier this week but Christos Giagos is not one I am excited to roster at 9k.
He’s facing the veteran Mizuto Hirota who has never been knocked out in 27 professional fights, and Giagos has an ITD line of +324 for that reason. I find it unlikely that Giagos can dominate with his wrestling or finish Hirota, and so his price is simply too expensive.
Plus, the fight as a whole is -255 to end in decision. Giagos has never been a high-volume fighter and I’d rather spend my money elsewhere on this slate.