UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Stephens Quick Picks
Welcome back to the UFC Quick Picks! We’re down the home stretch of events that culminates with UFC 222 next week, but before that happens we’re taking a trip down South to Orlando this weekend for Emmett vs. Stephens.
Now is a great time to tryout MMA if you have not already, the events will only improve and the prizes will continue to grow as NBA and NHL wind down to a close. This week, we still have the $80k Hook which pays out $15k to first place, not a bad prize if you ask me!
NEW TO MMA PREMIUM: I’ve decided to add my personal bets, betting breakdown videos and strategies to MMA Premium, which you can find in the link below.
If you want FULL BREAKDOWNS of every single fight on the card, projections, rankings and more, you can find that in the Premium Section here. We’ve also launched the MMA LINEUP BUILDER which you can access with my projections if you purchase the premium content.
Onto the fights!
Cash Game Plays
1. Mike Perry, $9,400
The reason I’m listing Mike Perry as a cash game play instead of a tournament option, is because I expect him to be overwhelmingly popular in tournaments. He’s also the most expensive fighter on the card, so I’m not sure he’s the best option. In GPPs, I’d almost rather pivot to other fighters in the 9k range who will be lower owned and hope to gain leverage.
But as far as a pick, Perry is one of the more obvious plays on the card against Max Griffin. Both fighters are knockout artists, but Perry is more defensively sound and likely more durable. I expect Griffin to come forward and try to brawl, and there’s a strong chance Perry hurts him and finishes the fight inside the distance.
Perry is the biggest favorite on the card at -365 with an ITD line of -179. I think he’s a strong anchor to cash game lineups and he also allows you to hedge off with similar priced pivots in tournaments. Expect Perry to be super popular in all formats this weekend.
2. Tecia Torres, $7,000
If you’re looking for a value play, one of the top choices is Tecia Torres at 7k against Jessica Andrade. Torres is so cheap because Andrade comes in as a -320 favorite, but the fight is also very likely to go the full 15 minute distance.
In cash games, when I’m looking for a punt, I want someone who can go the distance and score 20-40 points. We’re not necessarily looking for a win at this price. Only one of Torres 11 pro fights have ended inside the distance and she has never been finished. She also lands at a very high rate of 4.77 significant strikes per minute, and Andrade is someone who will continue to pressure and force Torres to land in volume.
There’s some possibility that Torres wins, but regardless I think she can land 80 or more significant strikes in the 15 minute span and put up a nice score for her cheap price tag.
Tournament Plays
1. Alan Jouban, $9,100
I like this matchup with Alan Jouban and Ben Saunders from a tournament perspective, most notably because both fighters have durability issues. It’s a bit sad, but the fighters who are less durable are often optimal to target against, because they are easier to finish.
Jouban has been finished in three of his past six fights, so he’s not fully in the clear here. But I think Jouban is more athletic, more powerful and faster than Saunders, and I expect him to land the harder shots early.
Jouban has an ITD line of -125 which is very strong and we get him for a discount off the very top fighters like Perry. Saunders has been knocked out five times in his career and hurt in many more, so we should see fireworks early.
We are obviously looking for finishing upside in tournaments, and even though there is risk, Jouban is certainly someone I would allocate exposure to because he has that finishing potential.
2. Renan Barao, $8,500
This is definitely a tournament only play and I really don’t feel super comfortable about it, but I think Renan Barao’s fight with Brian Kelleher sets up well for him to have another highlight reel performance.
The problem with Barao is that he doesn’t seem to show up mentally anymore, and if this fight gets out of the first round he could lose on volume. But Barao has elite takedown defense which I doubt Kelleher can capitalize on, and he’s the much more technical striker. Kelleher has also shown major issues in defending submissions, which Barao is more than capable of locking in.
I think Barao has potential to hurt and finish Kelleher early, and because he’s been so inconsistent he should also come in with a low ownership. With an ITD line of +170, Barao is in play for me in tournaments.
Fade of the Week
1. Marcin Prachnio, $9,000
I’m a bit scared writing up the fade on Marcin Prachnio who is making his UFC debut with 10 of his 13 wins via knockout. But the price is what’s concerning, and also the matchup.
His opponent Sam Alvey has potential to slow fights down dramatically, and so Prachnio really needs an early knockout to pay off that price tag in tournaments. Alvey has also only been knocked out once in 41 pro fights, he’s insanely durable. Yes it’s possible this is the second finish loss, but I don’t want to invest heavily in that outcome where there are plenty of other strong options in the range.
So I’ll take my chances and pivot to fighters in the 9k range, or even drop below. Prachnio is not someone I have heavy interest in targeting this weekend.