UFC Fight Night: Gaethje vs. Vick Quick Picks
Welcome to another edition of the UFC Quick Picks!
It was nice to have a two week break but we are back this week with a strong card, headlined by a fun action fight in Justin Gaethje vs. James Vick. There are several Qualifier seats up for grabs as well as a few hundred thousand dollars on DK, and that’s what we’re here for. I’ve listed a few of my favorite plays below to help you get started.
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Onto the fights!
Cash Game Plays
1. Justin Gaethje, 7.6k
Targeting the Main Event is always a smart move in cash games, and while I think stacking both Justin Gaethje and James Vick is a viable strategy, Gaethje is my preferred option at 7.6k.
It mostly comes down to the price, the odds, and the ability to spend up elsewhere. We need values on this card to afford the big guns, and Gaethje is only +125 to win with an ITD line of +169. Gaethje fights at an extremely high pace and even if he loses a five-round decision, he will put up a significant number of points.
Gaethje has landed more than eight significant strikes per minute in his UFC career and his fights are always high-action and gold mines of fantasy potential. For his price tag, in cash games, I think he’s a very solid target.
2. Andre Fili, 7.5k
The best pure value on this card is none other than Andre Fili at 7.5k, who is currently a -115 favorite on the betting line. Fili should be priced around 8.2k, meaning he has at least $700 of DraftKings savings.
I do expect him to have a competitive bout with Michael Johnson, and even in a loss I think Fili should be able to put up some points. But he has a much higher chance to win than any fighter in his surrounding price tag, and those are the types of plays I target in this format in the long term.
He will be popular in all formats, but Fili is the top value on the slate and should not be ignored, especially in cash games.
Tournament Plays
1. Eryk Anders, 9.7k
The 9k range is filled with strong options, but the metrics line up best for Eryk Anders at 9.7k.
He’s extremely expensive, but Anders is a -1000 favorite with a -269 line to win ITD, far and away the best numbers on the slate. Plus his odds to win in round one are -115, which is simply too good to ignore.
I wouldn’t force Anders in all your tournament lineups, feel free to save some money with Barberena or Gall, among others, but I do think Anders should be considered the top upside play on the slate and I plan to pay up for him when I have the salary for it.
His opponent Tim Williams is a decent wrestler, but not the best striker or athlete and has a questionable chin. Anders is one of the best athletes in the division, and if he can keep the fight standing he will have a real chance to hurt and finish Williams early in the fight.
2. Andrew Sanchez, 8k
I’m luke warm on this play, mostly because I cannot trust the cardio of Andrew Sanchez, he’s failed twice in a row and has been finished on both occasions after dominating the early portion of the fight.
But his skills aren’t to blame, he has a high wrestling pedigree and strikes at a high rate, and he definitely has the better round-winning tools than his opponent Markus Perez. If his cardio holds up, he should be able to land some takedowns and has potential to reach value for only 8k.
He’s still better served for tournaments than cash games in my opinion because his cardio is a weak point. I will definitely have shares of Sanchez in this tricky mid-range and I think he’s worth considering.
Fade of the Week
1. Warlley Avles, 9.3k
In all honesty Warlley Alves is a fine play, but at 9.3k I just don’t prefer him over the other options in his price tier. Eryk Anders is a better tournament option, so is Bryan Barberena and Mickey Gall, and I just think Alves is too expensive.
Alves doesn’t work at a high enough rate to produce fantasy points without a quick finish. He lands well below three sig. strikes per minute and hasn’t shown a volume wrestling game. He also has a nasty guillotine move which is great, but even if he were to win by guillotine in early round one, that would barely yield 95 points.
Alves will have to finish Krause early and have the other big guns mess up to end on the optimal lineup, and I just prefer to invest my money elsewhere this weekend.