UFC Fight Night: Hendricks vs. Thompson Beat Down
Welcome back to another edition of the UFC Beat Down, and it’s good to be back after only a week.
This card is super interesting because there are at least 6-7 fights that should end in a finish and that doesn’t even include the main event. That tells me the card has a chance to be extremely high scoring. Points for everyone!!
There’s also a ton of big favorites so it will be interesting to see how the exposure is divided among the fighters.
Stay tuned for an episode of The Daily Fantasy MMA Podcast which can be found on Twitter at BrettAppley and at DailyFanMMA.
Onto the fights!
MAIN CARD
Johny Hendricks vs. Stephen Thompson
Fight Odds: Hendricks -220, Thompson +175
Odds to finish: -130
Salaries: Hendricks 10.4k, Thompson 9k
Weight Class: 170
I wasn’t sold on the main-event stack last week but I’m back on the train this week as Johny Hendricks takes on Stephen Thompson. For one, I consider “Wonderboy” Thompson a very live dog in this fight, and even if he loses a decision, I still expect him to score a decent amount.
Johny Hendricks hasn’t been talked about as an elite Welterweight fighter for a little while now but he’s only a couple split decisions removed from potentially being the division’s champion. He’s a still an elite fighter and as along as he can cut the weight properly, I expect him to put up a good performance.
Many are talking about Hendricks’ cardio entering this fight but I’m not too concerned. I’m more concerned and intrigued with the matchup, and a lot of Hendricks’ success will be dependent on if he can get the fight to the mat. Thompson has looked impressive as of late, and he’s used his karate-style striking to earn three knockouts in his last four fights.
He’ll have a solid six inches of reach on Hendricks and if he can keep him at range, I think it’s very likely Thompson can beat Hendricks in a kickboxing match and earn a victory. However, I’m not sold on that fact and I’m hesitant to pick Thompson in a huge step up in competition like this. If it was a pure wrestler vs. grappler than I’d be more in favor of Thompson, but Hendricks can definitely strike with anyone in the division, even if he’s not at the advantage.
I expect the winner to put up a big number and since both are reasonably priced, both are firmly in play. Because of the lack of value on this card, I actually prefer Thompson to Hendricks in GPPs.
Fight Prediction: Hendricks by Decision
Roy Nelson vs. Jared Rosholt
Fight Odds: Nelson -160, Rosholt +140
Odds to finish: -210
Salaries: Nelson 10.2k, Rosholt 9.2k
Weight Class: HW
I’ve been very successful fading Jared Rosholt fights on DraftKings and I’m not going to stop here in his fight against Roy Nelson.
Rosholt is on a three fight winning streak with his most recent victory coming against Stefan Struve, while Nelson is on a three fight skid, and he’s lost five of his last six.
For one, Rosholt is a very good wrestler and he uses that as his primary game plan to win fights, and I don’t like targeting him or his opponents because he’s very good at neutralize offense on both sides. Nelson isn’t a fighter that seems capable of much offense these days, and I’m honestly worried this fight is setting up to be the biggest snoozer of the night.
Offensively, Nelson has the powerful punches, but he’s very limited in his exchanges and he only tends to throw a jab-overhand right combination, and he’s very weak outside of that. I think people have figured him out, and his offensive just hasn’t been effective unless he can land those punches and score a quick KO.
He’s turned into a bit of a wrestle/grappler as of late and we know he has the skills on the mat, but I think Rosholt will have a distinct wrestling advantage. I expect a lot of clinching and limited striking exchanges outside of a few heavy-fisted flurries from each. If Nelson can get in top control, I think he’d have the upside to finish the fight, but I’m not expecting that, and if Rosholt is on top, I don’t think he can get past the jiu-jitsu of Nelson and score a submission.
Absolutely do not target this fight in cash games, and I think a clear fade in tournaments is probably the best strategy, although ALL heavyweights have the power to end a fight in an instance. But I’m relying on Rosholt to do what he does best, and I actually think he’s a live dog to win this fight, as he’s 10 years younger and seems to be entering his prime. I expect him to be wrestling oriented but I think Rosholt can get the fight to the ground and scratch out a decision victory.
Fight Prediction: Rosholt by Decision
Ovince Saint Preux vs. Rafael Cavalcante
Fight Odds: Saint Preux -440, Cavalcante +350
Odds to finish: -485
Salaries: Saint Preux 10.7k, Cavalcante 8.7k
Weight Class: 205
Both fighters are coming off losses but I strongly favor Ovince Saint Preux in this matchup against Rafael Cavalcante.
For Cavalcante to win, I think he needs to outstrike and knock out OSP, and that seems like a mighty task for a cardio-deficient Cavalcante. OSP is a huge LHW and he should be have all the physical advantages in this fight to take it where he wants. I’m assuming he’ll want to keep the fight standing to use his powerful striking and score another KO.
OSP has finished all five of his most recent wins and he’s only lost to Ryan Bader and Glover Teixeira in that span. I don’t think Cavalcante is on that level and I expect to him to struggle mightly. It’s very plausible that this fight doesn’t last past the first round.
For his price, I think OSP is a very solid play in all formats, as he seems safe on paper and clearly has the upside to match anyone else on the card. Cavalcante hasn’t shown he’s capable of fighting more than a round without exhausting himself as of late, and I’m simply not going to invest my money in him.
Fight Prediction: Saint Preux by TKO, RD 1
Joseph Benavidez vs. Zach Makovsky
Fight Odds: Benavidez -470, Makovsky +375
Odds to finish: +200
Salaries: Benavidez 10.8k, Makovsky 8.6k
Weight Class: 125
Even though Joseph Benavidez and Zach Makovsky are two of the elite in the Flyweight division, this fight is essentially irrelevant for fantasy purposes.
The combined technique, speed and athleticism between the two is off the charts, but because of those reasons, it’s very unlikely that either fighter will be able to rack up enough significant strikes to pay off the price. Both fighters are primarily wrestlers, and that only adds to the concern when determining whether each is worth targeting.
Makovsky is obviously the lesser known name of the two, but he’s won three of five fights in the UFC, and he’s one of the stronger grapplers in the division. His biggest drawback is that when he can’t outwrestle his opponents, his chances of winning decrease dramatically. And unfortunately for Makovsky, I don’t think he has much of a shot at outwrestling Benavidez.
Benavidez has been around the MMA game for years but he’s still widely considered the best in the world outside of Demetrious Johnson, and for good reason. Not only does he possess the physical attributes needed, but he’s a supremely powerful puncher and an excellent submission grappler.
It’s simple really, I think Benavidez has all the tools to beat Makovsky and the Vegas line sends that same message. The problem is that with those high odds, so comes the price, and he costs a pretty penny this weekend. I like Benavidez to win, but his upside and floor concern me, and I don’t plan on paying up for him this weekend.
Fight Prediction: Benavidez by Decision
Misha Cirkunov vs. Alex Nicholson
Fight Odds: Cirkunov -1,100, Nicholson +700
Odds to finish: -900
Salaries: Cirkunov 11k, Nicholson 8.4k
Weight Class: 205
I believe that Misha Cirkunov is one the hotter prospects in the UFC, and I think his matchup with Alex Nicholson is a great showcase bout.
It’s hard to say whether the -1100 odds on Cirkunov are accurate, but I’ll say this, Nicholson is not a very good ground fighter. I watched some tape on him and he was taken down very easily, and didn’t seem to understand some of the basics on the ground. And Cirkunov is an elite ground fighter, with a ton of strength and submissions, and I really expect him to cruise to a win.
Nicholson is only 6-1 in his career and making his UFC debut, and although he’s shown decent power striking, there’s no chance I’m targeting him this weekend.
Fight Prediction: Cirkunov by RNC, RD 1
Mike Pyle vs. Sean Spencer
Fight Odds: Spencer -175, Pyle +155
Odds to finish: -140
Salaries: Spencer 10k, Pyle 9.4k
Weight Class: 170
One of the few mid-range fights with upside that may go overlooked, I think Mike Pyle vs. Sean Spencer is a sneaky fight to target. I honestly don’t hate either guy in cash or GPP, although I suspect the mid range will be ignored in cash games for the most part.
Spencer is actually a pretty quality striker and he should have the advantage on the feet. Pyle is pretty well-rounded himself but he’s aging and showing clear signs of decline.
I expect the fight to play out on the feet for its majority and because of that, I think Spencer makes for the better play, and I think he’s a dark horse to earn a finish.
Fight Prediction: Spencer by Decision
UNDERCARD
Josh Burkman vs. KJ Noons
Fight Odds: Burkman -175, Noons +154
Odds to finish: -130
Salaries: Burkman 10.1k, Noons 9.3k
Weight Class: 155
I don’t think many people will be on this fight between Josh Burkman and KJ Noons. Both fighters are coming off losses where they looked less than impressive, and now Burkman is dropping down to 155, which is weird in its own right.
From a DFS perspective I’m very neutral on this fight on both sides. If the fight stays standing, Noons should have a slight but non-distinct edge and if the fight hits the ground, Burkman should have a sizeable edge. Burkman is much more versatile in my opinion and he has more ways to win, and that’s why I’m picking him.
I also think Burkman has the more upside and a submission victory from him is very reasonable. He’s the better play of the two and I prefer him in tournaments.
Fight Prediction: Burkman by Decision
Derrick Lewis vs. Damian Grabowski
Fight Odds: Grabowski -145, Lewis +125
Odds to finish: -300
Salaries: Grabowski 9.7k, Lewis 9.7k
Weight Class: HW
I’ll say from the start that this is a heavyweight fight and it always carries upside, I even included Derrick Lewis as my underdog of the week on The Daily Fantasy Takedown for his upside alone. But this is a matchup that makes me nervous from a DFS perspective and I could easily see it extending into the later rounds.
Lewis is a heavy-handed striker to say the least and if he wins, it will most likely come through a knockout. The UFC signed Damian Grabowski to add to the HW roster and although he has an impressive record of 20-2, I don’t think he’s an elite prospect.
What’s scary is that in 22 fights, Grabowski has never been knocked out which says a lot about a HW fighter. Grabowski is primarily a grappler but I don’t see him having an easy time getting the fight to the floor and finishing. He should be at a strength disadvantage, which means we may see Lewis pushing the “pace” and keeping the fight standing.
I’m inclined to think that Grabowski is most likely to finish in the second or third round once he can tire out Lewis, but I think Lewis has the first round KO potential, even against Grabowski’s granite chin. I also think this fight is in danger of being a snoozer and lasting all three rounds with neither fighter scoring much.
Definitely take a look at this fight for GPPs but don’t consider it the lock like some may think.
Fight Prediction: Grabowski by Decision
Ray Borg vs. Justin Scoggins
Fight Odds: Borg -300, Scoggins +250
Odds to finish: +120
Salaries: Borg 10.5k, Scoggins 8.9k
Weight Class: 125
This is my sleeper for fight of the night. Ray Borg is one of the most exciting grapplers in the UFC because he’s always submission hunting and that’s what makes him dangerous. His ability to transport himself on his opponents’ backs is incredible and it’s obvious that submission grappling is his game plan entering every fight.
I was a little dissapointed to see the UFC matchup Justin Scoggins with Borg because I think Scoggins is a solid prospect too, but Borg is just a really tough matchup. Specifically, it’s extremely difficult to create offense against him, especially while he’s on the attack.
Scoggins is a very solid kickboxer/karate striker with good kicks, and a well-rounded grappling game. The big problem is just that I don’t know exactly how his wrestling and grappling will compare with Borg’s. If Scoggins can keep the fight standing he should be able to outstrike Borg to a decision. But I suspect Borg’s aggression will be too much and he should be able to sneak out a decision if he can’t secure the sub.
I like Borg for GPPs but I’m not in love with him. He’s an option. I don’t love Scoggins in a vacuum either but there are very little cheap plays with the ability to win on this card, and for that reason he’s in play as well. Don’t build your lineups around this fight.
Fight Prediction: Borg by Decision
Noad Lahat vs. Diego Rivas
Fight Odds: Lahat -325, Rivas +265
Odds to finish: -140
Salaries: Lahat 10.6k, Rivas 8.8k
Weight Class: 145
Noad Lahat earned a couple impressive wins before he left to fight for his country, and the UFC is doing him a solid with a matchup against Diego Rivas in his return.
Rivas is a below-average fighter from TUF Latin America and he won’t really have an advantage on paper against most fighters in the UFC. Lahat is a very strong wrestler and grappler and if he can get past guys like Backstrom, he shouldnt have a problem with Rivas.
My only hesitation for Lahat is that his grappling makes his floor low, because there’s always a chance his significant strike output will be too small. But he’s a safe play for win in the books of most and he’s got a legitimate shot to win by submission. I think he’s an elite GPP play and cash viable this weekend.
Fight Prediction: Lahat by RNC, RD 2
Mickey Gall vs. Mike Jackson
Fight Odds: Gall -560, Jackson +430
Odds to finish: -550
Salaries: Gall 10.9k, Jackson 8.5k
Weight Class: 170
Uhhh, yeah, not sure what to say about this fight. For those who don’t know, Mickey Gall is 1-0 and the UFC signed him to beat Mike Jackson (0-0) so that he can fight and lose to CM Punk (hopefully).
I don’t really know why the odds are so high in favor of Gall, except for the fact that the public would bet Mickey Gall against any no name, so that might be the reason. Gall is a brown belt in jiu jitsu and trains with the Miller brothers, and from what I hear, he’s going to look to get the fight to the ground quickly.
Mike Jackson is a cameraman/personality for Legacy Fighting (I think) and he has some amateur MMA experience and kickboxing experience. He’ll want to keep the fight standing.
Obviously there’s like zero tape out there on both guys and Id never trust either in cash games, but I think both make worthwhile GPP plays. Usually when bad fighters square off, weaknesses are exposed and I expect both to have them. People I’ve talked to seem pretty sure Gall is going to wrestle Jackson down easily but who knows, Gall is 1-0 and he’s not very good, Jackson could easily win.
Target both sides of the fight in tournaments.
Fight Prediction: Gall by RNC, RD 1
Artem Lobov vs. Alex White
Fight Odds: Lobov -150, White +130
Odds to finish: -165
Salaries: Lobov 9.8k, White 9.6k
Weight Class: 155
This should be an exciting fight between Artem “The training partner of Conor McGregor” Lobov and Alex White. Lobov is coming off a loss to Ryan Hall in the TUF Finale and he really needs to win here to keep his spot on the roster. He’s had moderate success outside the UFC but it’s pretty clear he doesn’t have the same type of ceiling as some others in his camp.
Alex White is moderately exciting himself, he’s a good boxer but his real weakness is defense. Even if his opponents don’t have great offense, his lack of defense makes up for it. With that said, I think both fighters are in play because I expext the fight to stay standing, and I think it’s reasonable the winner could score 70 points in a decision.
Vegas also thinks both fighters have a reasonable chance to finish, which would most likely mean a KO. Make no mistake this is a close fight, but I’m going to lean toward Lobov to strike his way to a decision and get the slow UFC start behind him.
Fight Prediction: Lobov by Decision